Word is that Assemblyman Todd Spitzer, no stranger to a microphone, is getting his own weekend talk show on KFI 640 AM. He apparently starts this Saturday at 5pm.
Spitzer was formerly a call screener for KFI's morning drive time talker Bill Handel. He's also had a 30 minute cable program called "Country Crossfire" that's run on, at least, Time Warner's system here in the OC, but since I've seen nothing but the same repeated show since Christmas, I'll presume he's no longer doing the program.
Last night, R. Scott Moxley posts an article saying Todd Spitzer will soon abandon his challenge to D.A. Tony Rackauckas. Frank Mickadeit writes this morning that suddenly, Spitzer is giving an awful lot of reasons why he shouldn't run. Both articles correspond with what the Blogpen's sources are telling us. What's more, Spitzer incredibly "declined to comment" for Moxley's story (which I think the Book of Revelation gives that as portent of the Apocalypse).
All of this leads me to believe Spitzer is indeed preparing to withdraw, especially when you consider Spitzer's remarks last week in reaction to Rackauckas' bombshell that this will be his last campaign. Candidates who are committed to running and winning don't talk that way.
Which is also not surprising. I've always believed that Spitzer's enormous ambition would ultimately give way to his even more enormous instinct for political self-preservation. I think Spitzer realized he had painted himself into a corner and Rackauckas' announcement offered him a face-saving way out of a race he had come to realize he would lose.
If Spitzer does drop out, he will be doing the right thing.
The Orange County Register and Left Angeles Times report today on Rackauckas' official announcement of his intent to seek re-election to a third -- and final -- term.
In response to the "final" part, Spitzer began laying the ground-work for abandoning his challenge without looking like he's backing down in the face of overwhelming opposition from elected officials, the Republican Party, donors, activists and law enforcement. He told the LAT:
"My intent has never been to split the Republican Party, the law enforcement community or the general public over a race for district attorney," Spitzer said. "I'm still very motivated to run. But what I'm saying is, you can't ignore the fact that he's saying he's running for just one term…. Given the fact that he's made this announcement, it has to be analyzed," he said.
Translation: after a decent interval, I'll be a unifying hero and withdraw for the sake of party unity, after extracting commitments from movers-and-shakers to back me for D.A. in 2010.
Spitzer must realize he has boxed himself in and needs an honorable exit strategy. In addition to staring at the likelihood of entering political oblivion by losing to Rackauckas, Spitzer knows that an increasing number of candidates are circling his Assembly seat. If he waits too long to decide to run for re-election, some of those candidates might feel too committed to drop out in his favor. So instead of cruising to re-election to a final Assembly term, he'd have to burn a lot of campaign dollars staving off an unnecessary primary challenge -- dollars he could otherwise use to run for Dick Ackerman's Senate seat in 2008.
Furthermore, if Spitzer persists in carrying on his D.A. campaign too long, he might so alienate Rackauckas supporters that they'd support a challenge to Spitzer in order to give him a taste of his own medicine -- or at least sit on their hands and not help him.
Some interesting political dynamics are emerging in the backwash of Todd Spitzer's reckless decision to challenge District Attorney Tony Rackauckas in 2006. Since Spitzer's D.A. campaign opens up his Assembly seat, candidates are cropping up as Spitzer's commitment to running against Rackauckas seems to harden.
Last Friday, GOP activist Mark Bucher of Tustin declared his intention of running for the 71st A.D. Two-term Mission Viejo City Councilman John Paul Ledesma is also telling people he is going to run, and Corona Councilman Jeff Miller is also expected to throw his hat into the ring.
And that is just for starters.
There are a million scenarios you could play out about who is the putative front-runner. Since the 71st AD is a mainly Orange County district, that would tend to favor a OC-based candidates. On the other hand, if there are several OC-based candidates, they could dilute the Orange County vote and allow Miller to run up the middle as Corona's favorite son.
Ledesma is a nice guy with name ID in Mission Viejo (and who knows, he might benefit from voter confusion with OUSD Trustee Rick Ledesma), but in person he just doesn't leave much of an impression. But being a city councilman in a divided city like Mission Viejo also 
hurts, since there are plenty of M.V. residents who don't care for him. Ledesma has also endorsed Spitzer's D.A. candidacy, which will complicate his efforts to attract support from the vast majority of elected officials, donors and activists who are backing Rackauckas.
Bucher will be a formidable candidate. While he's never held elective office, he has accumulated years of campaign experience helping school board candidates win election in the teeth of teachers union oppposition. He's Treasurer of the Republican Party of Orange County and oversaw their precinct organization in last years general election -- bothg of which will come in handy. He was also a co-author of paycheck protection initiative in 1998. While that ultimately went down onbder an avalanche of negative union ads, it is one of those tempering-in-the-fire experiences that better prepares a person for campaigns down the road.
Bucher is very energetic, organized and has the ability to put significant financial resources into his own campaign. The latter will come in handy during the next twelve months before filing closes, since raising money to run in the 71st AD will be problematic -- because Spitzer has 12 months to change his mind and run for re-election to the Assembly. That will cause a lot of potential donors to want to hold off endorsing or donating until closer to the filing deadline.
