OC Blog

Barbaro: "This Is Going To Help Elect Lou Correa"

This is from today's OC Register story on the Tan Nguyen scandal:

But Barbaro said that rather than hurt Democratic and Hispanic turnout, it could provide a boost. While Sanchez was already predicted to win easily, turnout will play a key role in the competitive match for state Senate between Democrat Lou Correa and Republican Lynn Daucher.

"The anger here is amazing," Barbaro said. "People are mobilizing. This is going to help elect Lou Correa."

While we now know Tan Nguyen is responsible for the letters, Barbarpo's comment makes it clear those who'd been theorizing it was a Democratic dirty trick were making an entirely reasonable  guess. That theory was based on the saem conclusion Barbaro comes to: the ultimate effect of the letter would be to boost Latino Democrat turnout by igniting Latino Democrat outrage. The Democrat dirty trick theory was obviously wrong, but nonetheless reasonable speculation.

Then again, Barbaro and the dirty-trick theorizers could turn out to be wrong about the ultimate consequence of the letter, as Lou Correa frets in the same article:

Correa wasn't so sure.

"I'm getting phone calls from voters saying they're afraid to vote," he said.

I'm not sure what to think about what the ultimate effect will be. I am almost certain that if Lynn Daucher ekes out a narrow win in the 34th, a lot of Democrats will immdiately blame the Tan Nguyen letter and seek to delegitimize a Daucher victory.

Lou Correa's Risky Vote

[This item is cross-posted on the FlashReport.]

If I am State Senate President Don Perata, I am wincing this morning over news account that my Democrat nominee in my #1 'defend' seat in the entire State has just cast a politically perilous vote.  Orange County Supervisor Lou Correa is in the last month of what will be a hard-fought battle to win election to California's 34th State Senate District. This seat was once reliably Republican (last held by former Senate Republican Leader Rob Hurtt) and then shifted to the Democrat column where it has been occupied by Joe Dunn these past eight years.  Due to strong efforts by the Orange County Republican Party, Republican registration evened up with Democrats (despite the gerrymander) and has ultimately settled with Democrats having only a two-point advantage. The Republican Party nominee for this seat is Assemblywoman Lynn Daucher. Electing Daucher to the Senate has long been the number one priority for State Senate Republican Leader Dick Ackerman, who weighed in on behalf of Daucher, playing a key role in urging neighboring Assemblyman Van Tran not to run in the 34th S.D. Republican primary.

Democrats Sent The Warning Letter To Voters In The 34th SD!

The investigation from the Democrat Attorney General won’t go far beyond today’s headlines because Democrat dirty tricksters sent the now infamous letter to voters in the 34th Senate District.   

Allow me to offer my evidence, which, although circumstantial, is considerably more powerful than the weak, whiny case made by Chris Prevatt and the herd response by some in the media.

My theory is based on the tremendous analytical tools at my disposal developed from 23 years of taxpayer-funded training as a military intelligence officer (Note to the perpetually humorless: tongue firmly planted in cheek). My logical reasoning, certainly more valid than Prevatt’s, advances along these lines:

We need to ask a few questions.

Correa Votes Against Sheriff Carona's Anit-Criminal Illegal Alien Plan

From Total Buzz:

Sheriff's immigration plan passes 3-1

Peggy called it -- County Supervisor Lou Correa opposed the plan, questioning whether it would actually make communities safer and concerned that it would erode relationships built by police and deputies with the immigrant community. Supervisor Tom Wilson was absent. We'll have more on the vote a little later.

Right, Lou. It won't make communities any safer to identify criminal illegal immigrants in our jails and so remove them from our communities by deportation. Too bad Lou didn't have the nerve to stand up to the La Raza-types in his party and support a limited, common sense program like this one.

Correa To Vote Tomorrow On Carona's Criminal Illegal Immigrants Plan

Peggy Lowe over at Total Buzz points ahead to a hazardous vote ahead for Supervisor Lou Correa:

I came back to a busy supes agenda for tomorrow. One item has surely made a certain Lou Correa a little nervous. Sheriff Mike Carona's plan to train local deputies to make federal immigration checks is up for a vote. That will, of course, put Correa on record on an immigration issue just three weeks before the election. The Buzzette's guess is a vote of 4-1 to approve it.

That puts Lou between a rock and a hard place in the context of his state Senate race. Voting for the Sheriff's plan angers the La Taza-types among activists and (more importantly) the Latino Caucus in both houses of the legislature. Voting against the Sheriff's plan will be used against Correa in the mail among 34th District voters --including many Latinos -- who don't see anything wrong with finding criminal illegal immigrants abd deporting them.

Lou Correa's A "Different Kind Of Democrat"? Uh, Yeah.

The Lynn Daucher for Senate campaign sent out this letter from the Howard Jarvis Taxpayers Association the other day, highlighting Lou Correa's record as a taxer and under-cutting his recent claim to be a "different kind of Democrat" because he opposes gubernatorial-nominee-and party albatross Phil Anglides tax hikes:

34th SD Mailbox: Lots O' Daucher Mail

Time to catch up on some of the Daucher mail flying around the 34th Senate District.

Here are eight mail pieces from the California Republican Party sent out during latter part of September:

• A Vietnamese language piece featuring Assemblyman Van Tran and Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger.

• A half-English, half-Vietnamese mailer targeting seniors and highlighting Tran's support of Daucher.

• A mail piece chock foll o' praise from various GOP elected officials.

• A health care-oriented mailer geared toward seniors.

• A positive working-and-moving-forward-for-you type mailer starring Arnold and others.

• A Spanish and English "working hard for working people" mailer.

• A fiscal conservative mailer.

• Another "working hard" themed mailer, this one featuring Santa Ana Councilman Carlos Bustamante and Anaheim Councilman Bob Hernandez.

I'll post additonal mailers as I get them, so those of us not living inthe 34th Senate District can get a flavor of what is being communicated to voters there.

Looks Like Lou Correa's Hedging His Bets

Martin Wisckol blogged this intriguing post over at Total Buzz:

In today's Buzz column, I spilt some ink about the huge fund-raising gap in the 34th state Senate District race between Lou Correa and Lynn Daucher. One thing I didn't fit in: Correa has still not touched the $297,000 sitting in his supervisorial account. He could transfer that money to his Senate account if, say, he thought it was going to be a tight race and didn't want to depend on supposedly uncoordinated efforts by political action committees. I have a sources on either side of this race who have opined that if he was going to transfer that money, he would have done it by now.

My interpretation is Correa realizes this is going to be much closer race than many observers (including me) originally thought, and he's hedging his bets.

New Daucher for Senate Cable TV Ad

Here's a newish cable TV ad from the Lynn Daucher for Senate campaign that began running last week.

It's essentially a video "thank you" letter to Daucher from North Orange County Community College Trustee Manuel Ontiveros. It's a good ad, emphasizing Daucher's education record, which always Senate GOP Leader Dick Ackerman has always pointed to as one of  Daucher's strengths as a candidate for the 34th SD.

More Blogosphere Fallout From Daucher-Vargas Episode

Frank Mickadeit gave a stinging -- and perfectly accurate -- assessment of Lynn Daucher's attempt at OC GOP Central Committee to extract a pound of flesh from Steve Vargas, the former Brea councilman seeking to return to that city's council.

OCR editorialist Steve Greenhut responded on Orange Punch with a call to revive the idea of Republicans for Correa:

Time For 'Republicans For Correa'
Based on Frank Mickadeit's excellent column, we learn that Assemblywoman Lynn Daucher's proxy at the Republican Central Committee tried to stop the party from endorsing conservative Steve Vargas, who is making another run for the Brea City Council. The Brea council is run by Daucher clones -- property-rights-hating, tax-raising, big-government liberals, and Daucher is still holding a grudge from the day she battled Vargas on the Brea council.

Over at Orange Juice, Art Pedroza responded to Frank's stinging and perfectly accurate assessment by attacking Mickadeit as -- what else -- "a tool of the OC GOP Machine." Art then promises to "set the record straight."

However, Art devotes most of his post to recounting the history of the Daucher-Vargas bad blood, promoting the candidacy of Ron Garcia (I'm beginning to believe Art doesn't care a whit about property rights) and venting about Mike Schroeder. The closest he ever comes rebutting Frank's analysis were these two passages:

Mickadeit faulted Daucher for trying to stop the Vargas endorsement - but the fact remains that Vargas doesn't have anywhere near the local support in Brea that Garcia enjoys.

and:

Also, Michadeit ripped Daucher for standing up for Garcia, even though ultimately Vargas won the GOP endorsement. Give me a break! The conservatives are not going to walk for Daucher. They never intended to. If she is going to win, she will have to do it on her own.

Neither of which rebuts Frank's point: sending your campaign manager to tell Central Committee  members not to endorse a candidate because you think he is a bad man was not a smart political move (to put it charitably). Lanza was sent on a doomed errand that could only hurt Daucher's campaign. How does having her request rejected on a 65-1 vote of the Central Committee help her campaign?

Crying "The conservatives are not going to walk for Daucher" is a cop-out excuse. Art's a conservative, and he's enthusiastically supporting Daucher. I have significant differences with Lynn's politics, but I also like her personally and she is the nominee -- I want her to win and would precinct walk for her.

And because I want her to win, I think it best to put the desire for payback on hold and not let her desire to defeat Steve Vargas counter-productively distract from the necessity of her defeating Lou Correa.