Whither Joe Dunn?

The "What will Joe do?" parlor game is been ebbing and flowing, but never really stopping, among OC's politerati.

The latest wrinkle is an eruption of chisme/make-a-wish about a possible Joe Dunn run for City Council, although this chisme had already run its course a few days later.  I've been running that run through my head and talking to some insiders in a position to know, and nobody gives it any credence. One source characterized it as "absolute nonsense."

About the only real advantage for Dunn running for Santa Ana City Council is it's a part-time position, so he could keep his handsomely compensated job running the California Medical Association.

While being a councilman may be a part-time job, it's not really a part-time commitment. In addition to council meetings, there's committees you represent the city on -- although I suppose Dunn could take a pass and slough them off on the other six councilmembers -- plus all the community events a councilmember is expected to attend. And that's tough to do when one is spending half the week in Sacramento running one the the state's bigger special interest groups. In addition to getting an elected official ballot title in a future run for Congress, Dunn also runs the risk of acquiring a rep for being an absentee councilman in a city where basic services aren't getting enough attention from the council it has.

The meaningful speculation centers on whether Dunn will challenge Supervisor Janet Nguyen in the 1st District.

Is Joe Dunn 10-Feet Tall?
There's a vibe among the much of political class that Joe Dunn would be a shoo-in if he runs against Janet Nguyen.

Because he's a dynamic guy who served two terms in the state Senate, there's a lazy assumption that he's a 10-foot tall candidate who would simply overwhelm Sup. Nguyen by dint of being Joe Dunn. Then again, that was the conventional wisdom regarding Tom Umberg going into the 1st District special election.

Just as that CW was off-target, I think the current CW regarding Dunn is, too.

For starters, Janet Nguyen is the incumbent. Granted, she is politically weaker than most incumbent supervisors facing re-election because she won in a contested squeaker, and will have been in office little more than a year when the June 2008 primary rolls around.

But she'll still be the only candidate with the ballot designation "Orange County Supervisor." Incumbents very rarely lose in Orange County, and even then it's due to some huge controversy. Sup. Cynthia Coad would have been re-elected in 2002 but for the raging airport issue (and consenting to an unwise re-drawing of her district). And, as Art Pedroza reminds me in a comment below, her vote for the county PLA.

And Sup. Phil Anthony was defeated in 1980 due to a very dark ethical cloud hanging over his head back in the days when supervisors were being convicted of corruption.

There's no way Dunn is going to win 50%-plus-1 in June. Because the June primary turnout will be so low, it somewhat replicates the circumstances of the February 2007 special election that allowed the Vietnamese vote to completely dominate the election. If Trung stays in the race, he and the Van Tran operation, and Janet's campaign, will be working hard to gin up the Viet vote.

If Dunn does want to run, he'd better hope the CalCounts initiative qualifies -- then at least there will be something on the June ballot to excite Democratic voters, and the Democrats will spend millions trying to turn those voters out to vote no.

Out To Pasture Too Long?
Readers of this blog remember who Joe Dunn is, but do 1st District voters? From what I've gathered by talking to observers on both sides of the aisle, Dunn's name ID isn't strong in the district -- or at least not as strong as one might think.

Think about it: Dunn hasn't run a real campaign in central OC for nearly decade, since beating Sen. Rob Hurtt in 1998. And that was in the mail; unless memory fails me, there wasn't a strong Dunn ground game. I don't know how strong a district office operation he ran, but those I've asked weren't complimentary.

The 1st Supervisor District is evenly split in terms of party registration: 39.1% Democratic, 38.6% Republican. It's significantly less Democratic than the 34th Senate District was during Dunn's last real local campaign in 1998.

Where'll The Money Come From?
Raising money for county office is different than raising money for state office, as Assemblyman Tom Umberg knows. For one thing, the limits are smaller, as is the number of special interests with a special interest in who is running county government. The Dunn scenario envisions him plumbing the trial lawyers and the doctors for lots of cash. Maybe those professional ties will bind the doctors and lawyers into giving -- and maybe not. Prominent trial attorney and Democratic Foundation President Wylie Aitken had this to say to Martin Wisckol last month:

I’d like to see us develop a strong Vietnamese candidate and suggest to all other Democrats – as Republicans so successfully do – not to run, so we don’t divide our vote.

The trial attorney and doctors have much more at stake at the state level, as Dunn well knows. I think it'll take more than a strong "I like Joe" sentiment to really open up their wallets for Joe Dunn for Supervisor.

In the meantime, Janet Nguyen has demonstrated she is no slouch when it comes to fundraising. She raised an enormous amount during her special election campaign, and she was only a two-year member of the Garden Grove City Council. Now she's an incumbent supervisor.

Joe Dunn does have money in his state "Friends of Joe Dunn" state account that presumably can be "cleaned" into a supervisor account -- but $356.71 isn't much of a start.

The Joe Freeze Effect
Meanwhile, Joe Dunn's prolonged pondering has the effect of freezing the Democratic candidate pool. It's hard to raise money and get endorsements when donors and endorsers are waiting to see what Dunn will do. It's tough for Democrats movers-and-shakers to recruit a candidate when everyone is waiting to see what Dunn will decide. With the possible exception of Santa Ana Councilwoman Claudia Alvarez, who wants to declare themselves a candidate and then withdraw a few weeks later if Dunn says he's going to  run?

The danger for OC Democrats is Dunn could carry on this Hamlet routine -- and its freezing effect -- until close to the Feb. 12 to March 7 candidate filing period. This is the same guy who was an announced candidate for three statewide offices going into the 2006 primary, and an all-but-announced candidate for a fourth statewide office. If he changes and unchanges his mind about running while the filing period draws closer and closer -- and then decides NOT to run, that seriously hampers the efforts of whoever is the Democratic candidate (assuming there's just one).

This has become a long post, so I'll summarize thusly: I'm not saying Joe Dunn wouldn't be a formidable candidate for Supervisor. He would be a tough opponent. But those pining for his entry into the 1st District race against Janet should stop drinking so deeply from that intoxicating cask of Ole Joe and give themselves a reality check.

Comments

[Joe Giardiello]

Right on Jubal with some people needing a reality check on messiah Joe coming to the rescue. Just in case anyone wasn't paying attention during the special, the 1st is a Vietnamese seat. Period.

Van Tran's people understood turnout and its impact on the seat long ago. The Republican establishment (with the notable exception of Mike Schroeder) never really caught on in their zeal to been seen as embracing the right kind of minority candidate who simply couldn't win.

Joe Dunn (whoever he is) has no chance of winning the seat. None. Zero. Zip. Even if he were to make it to a run off, the numbers just aren't there for him.

[.]

I agree with you as far as it goes, Joe, but I'm not so sure Dunn can't win a run-off in November, when Democratic turn-out will be much higher..

[Art Pedroza]

Matt,

I think the obvious reason for Joe Dunn to run against Councilman Carlos Bustamante is that Carlos would be EASY to beat.

I also think that Claudia Alvarez won't pull out of this race. She will ensure that Dunn tanks.

As for Trung, I think his fifteen minutes of fame are over. The Vietnamese voters in the First District already have a Vietnamese Supervisor. They won't vote against Janet for fear of losing the seat to Dunn or Alvarez. Trung is done. Plus his adviser, Mike Schroeder, is busy trying to keep Carona out of jail. There is no hope for Trung. He should pull out and save some face.

BTW, one of the big reasons Coad lost was her support for the OC PLA. That was a career-killing mistake on her part. I called her office before that vote and begged her to reconsider, but she didn't. I later hooked Chris Norby up with a group of anti-PLA contractors. They helped fund his eventual victory.

[Jubal]

I think the obvious reason for Joe Dunn to run against Councilman Carlos Bustamante is that Carlos would be EASY to beat.

Well, I'd agree it's an obvious reason for you to want Joe Dunn to run against Carlos.

I also think that Claudia Alvarez won't pull out of this race.

You may be right. I don't know. But she also seemed like she was all-systems-go for the special election last year, and didn't file at literally the last minute.

As for Trung, I think his fifteen minutes of fame are over. The Vietnamese voters in the First District already have a Vietnamese Supervisor. They won't vote against Janet for fear of losing the seat to Dunn or Alvarez. Trung is done. Plus his adviser, Mike Schroeder, is busy trying to keep Carona out of jail. There is no hope for Trung.

I think you're overstating it. Trung is weaker now vis-a-vis Janet because she's the incumbent, but you (and just about everyone else, including me) were downplaying Trung's chances last year until almost the very end. He still has the backing of Van Tran's operation, and however much you dislike them, it showed itself to be a very effective political operation in that election and -- as you've noted -- in the Correa-Daucher race.

As for Mike Schroeder, I don't think distraction by Carona's problems will materially affect Trung's campaign. He's not a day-to-day campaign manager. And Mike is a very productive guy with his time. He can accomplish much more in a day than most people.

BTW, one of the big reasons Coad lost was her support for the OC PLA.

You're right -- I'd forgotten about that. Which just reinforces the point of how difficult it is to defeat a sitting supervisor. Janet isn't facing that kind of confluence big, damaging issues like Cynthia Coad was -- and I don't think the Dunn-will-win-Supervisor-in-a-walk crowd is factoring that into their thinking.

[Flowerszzz]

I disagree that Coad lost because of the PLA. The majority of the board voted for the PLA (I believe all of them did but my memory is fuzzy on that) and she and Silva were up at the same time. No one viable ran against Silva. I believe her loss was more due to the fact that she allowed the redistricting to take almost half of her district.

[Art Pedroza]

Flowerszzz,

Nope. Trust me. A ton of money went to Norby from contractors PO'd about the PLA. And the voters themselves used the ballot box to issue payback for that stupid vote.

Consider what happened later to Ken Maddox. A letter from him supporting the OC PLA surfaced. John Campbell was able to use that to beat Maddox up. And Campbell got support from the same contractors who went after Coad. Net result? Maddox is now taking notes for Michele Steel, while Campbell is in Congress, having moved on from the State Senate.

PLA's are VERY unpopular with Republicans.

BTW, Silva had a close call last year when Mike McGill took him on. And yes, Silva's PLA vote was a big part of that. That vote will haunt him forever.

[Jubal]

Flowerszzz, I don't think her PLA vote was THE reason she lost, but it was a major factor. I don't think she'd have lost, otherwise.

But I agree that the re-districting she agreed to set the stage for her defeat. Absent that, I doubt Chris Norby would have had the opportunity to use the PLA vote and the anti-airport money to defeat her.

[Mark Brianard]

Art: Close call? Silva beat McGill by 10 points.

Matt,

Great insights. I think it may get as simple as.....If Joe makes it to November the Democrat presidential enery sweeps him in.