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November 15, 2007

Comments

Joe Giardiello

Right on Jubal with some people needing a reality check on messiah Joe coming to the rescue. Just in case anyone wasn't paying attention during the special, the 1st is a Vietnamese seat. Period.

Van Tran's people understood turnout and its impact on the seat long ago. The Republican establishment (with the notable exception of Mike Schroeder) never really caught on in their zeal to been seen as embracing the right kind of minority candidate who simply couldn't win.

Joe Dunn (whoever he is) has no chance of winning the seat. None. Zero. Zip. Even if he were to make it to a run off, the numbers just aren't there for him.


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I agree with you as far as it goes, Joe, but I'm not so sure Dunn can't win a run-off in November, when Democratic turn-out will be much higher..

Art Pedroza

Matt,

I think the obvious reason for Joe Dunn to run against Councilman Carlos Bustamante is that Carlos would be EASY to beat.

I also think that Claudia Alvarez won't pull out of this race. She will ensure that Dunn tanks.

As for Trung, I think his fifteen minutes of fame are over. The Vietnamese voters in the First District already have a Vietnamese Supervisor. They won't vote against Janet for fear of losing the seat to Dunn or Alvarez. Trung is done. Plus his adviser, Mike Schroeder, is busy trying to keep Carona out of jail. There is no hope for Trung. He should pull out and save some face.

BTW, one of the big reasons Coad lost was her support for the OC PLA. That was a career-killing mistake on her part. I called her office before that vote and begged her to reconsider, but she didn't. I later hooked Chris Norby up with a group of anti-PLA contractors. They helped fund his eventual victory.

Jubal

I think the obvious reason for Joe Dunn to run against Councilman Carlos Bustamante is that Carlos would be EASY to beat.

Well, I'd agree it's an obvious reason for you to want Joe Dunn to run against Carlos.

I also think that Claudia Alvarez won't pull out of this race.

You may be right. I don't know. But she also seemed like she was all-systems-go for the special election last year, and didn't file at literally the last minute.

As for Trung, I think his fifteen minutes of fame are over. The Vietnamese voters in the First District already have a Vietnamese Supervisor. They won't vote against Janet for fear of losing the seat to Dunn or Alvarez. Trung is done. Plus his adviser, Mike Schroeder, is busy trying to keep Carona out of jail. There is no hope for Trung.

I think you're overstating it. Trung is weaker now vis-a-vis Janet because she's the incumbent, but you (and just about everyone else, including me) were downplaying Trung's chances last year until almost the very end. He still has the backing of Van Tran's operation, and however much you dislike them, it showed itself to be a very effective political operation in that election and -- as you've noted -- in the Correa-Daucher race.

As for Mike Schroeder, I don't think distraction by Carona's problems will materially affect Trung's campaign. He's not a day-to-day campaign manager. And Mike is a very productive guy with his time. He can accomplish much more in a day than most people.

BTW, one of the big reasons Coad lost was her support for the OC PLA.

You're right -- I'd forgotten about that. Which just reinforces the point of how difficult it is to defeat a sitting supervisor. Janet isn't facing that kind of confluence big, damaging issues like Cynthia Coad was -- and I don't think the Dunn-will-win-Supervisor-in-a-walk crowd is factoring that into their thinking.

Flowerszzz

I disagree that Coad lost because of the PLA. The majority of the board voted for the PLA (I believe all of them did but my memory is fuzzy on that) and she and Silva were up at the same time. No one viable ran against Silva. I believe her loss was more due to the fact that she allowed the redistricting to take almost half of her district.

Art Pedroza

Flowerszzz,

Nope. Trust me. A ton of money went to Norby from contractors PO'd about the PLA. And the voters themselves used the ballot box to issue payback for that stupid vote.

Consider what happened later to Ken Maddox. A letter from him supporting the OC PLA surfaced. John Campbell was able to use that to beat Maddox up. And Campbell got support from the same contractors who went after Coad. Net result? Maddox is now taking notes for Michele Steel, while Campbell is in Congress, having moved on from the State Senate.

PLA's are VERY unpopular with Republicans.

BTW, Silva had a close call last year when Mike McGill took him on. And yes, Silva's PLA vote was a big part of that. That vote will haunt him forever.

Jubal

Flowerszzz, I don't think her PLA vote was THE reason she lost, but it was a major factor. I don't think she'd have lost, otherwise.

But I agree that the re-districting she agreed to set the stage for her defeat. Absent that, I doubt Chris Norby would have had the opportunity to use the PLA vote and the anti-airport money to defeat her.

Mark Brianard

Art: Close call? Silva beat McGill by 10 points.

Matt,

Great insights. I think it may get as simple as.....If Joe makes it to November the Democrat presidential enery sweeps him in.

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