The Carona Succession Scramble

Sheriff Mike Carona's political corpse is still room-temperature and the "Pick me! Pick me!" process has started. But that's politics. Ralph Martin and Bill Hunt have both raised their hands, according to Total Buzz. Surprise!

Although the Caronas are vowing to fight, I think the most likely scenario is a plea bargain between the US Attorney's office and the Caronas. Indicting Debbie Carona gives the feds a lot of leverage over the sheriff, and I doubt they'd even have sought an indictment unless they had their legal ducks in a row. I'm trying to remember an instance here in California when an elected official under federal indictment didn't plead out, but can't come up with one. The feds won't accept any plea bargain that doesn't include resignation and from Carona's end the gaol would be to save his pension -- although that may not be possible.

While nothing short of a conviction can force Carona from office against his will, I think some measure  of political support is necessary to wage a battle against this indictment, because the fight isn't just in the courtroom. For example, if Sheriff Carona was unable to muster a majority of the AOCDS membership to endorse him for re-election, how can he count on the union's support during this maelstrom? On the Republican side, there has been a deep sense of Carona Fatigue for a long time. As I've written before, his campaign team was barely able to hold onto tepid organized GOP support through the June primary. If Carona had been forced into a run-off, that support would have fractured. Now that the feds have indicted Carona, I doubt there is any desire on the part of any party regular to man the ramparts.

Who's The Next Sheriff?
When and if the Board of Supes has to fill a resignation-caused vacancy, I predict they'll appoint a caretaker Sheriff who'll pledge not to run in the special election. They'd probably rather keep the politicking on the campaign trail and away from the Board. Supervisor Moorlach specified he'd like someone from outside the OCSD, but who knows if the other four supervisors feel the same way.

Here's how I'd handicap likely those likely to run in a June special election for Sheriff. Keep in mind it is a county-wide election, which is mucho expensive:

Bill Hunt. Not likely. Yes, he came in second against Carona in June 2006 with 26.5%, but he was a terrible fundraiser and ran a disorganized campaign against a weakened incumbent. The only reason he garnered a quarter of the vote was the AOCDS endorsed him and sent out a couple of mailers for him.

Plus, Hunt's exit from the department will hurt him. Fairly or not, the other candidates' campaigns or an anti-hunt IE can hit him for being "demoted for misconduct" and given the circumstances necessitating a special election, voters will want a Sheriff who, like Caesar's wife, is above suspicion.

Ralph Martin. Commander Martin would have a good campaign message: he's from outside the department and knows how to run a large law enforcement organization. But he had one in the June 2006 primary, too. The problem was he couldn't raise enough money to tell it to voters. He entered the June 2006 race about this time in 2005, and was unable to garner any significant endorsements, cultivate grass-roots support or raise enough money for even a single county-wide mail piece. Sowhile it will be a wide openn election with no incumbent, the question is, is there any reason to believe he will do any better this time?

Paul Walters: I'd rate the long-time Santa Ana police chief as the leading candidate in a special election should he toss his hat in. He's police chief in OC's biggest city. He ran a strong campaign for sheriff in 1998, losing to then Marshal Mike Carona, 52.9% to 46.8%. He had the support of the AOCDS in 1998 and can presumably secure that support again. Most importantly, he's from outside the OCSD and therefore has no connection to Carona, and if he's smart his campaign will find a way to fan an "If we'd elected Walters in 1998, we wouldn't be in this mess" sentiment. I don't know anything about Walters' record as police chief, and whether it can be used against him.

Jack Anderson: He's an Assistant Sheriff and an active member of the Republican Party of Orange County Central Committee who's well-liked by other GOP activists. I've heard his name put forward as a possible candidate in 2010, but I've heard it from him. Other than that, I don't know much about Anderson.

Presumably, Anderson would be able to obtain the endorsement of the OC GOP. That thought may be like nails on a chalkboard to some, but like it or not in a Republican county, having the Republican endorsement is a plus -- especially for a comparatively unknown candidate.

On the other hand, a skillful campaign could find a way to use that support to link Anderson with Carona: "they gave us Mike Carona, now they want to give us Jack Anderson." Fair or unfair, that's campaign politics -- although such a strategy would be costly and divert precious campagn dollars from the more important task of just introducing the anti-Anderson candidate to the voters.

A final note in this "What If?" scenario-gaming: the AOCDS endorsement will probably be the single-most decisive factor in a special election. The deputies union has a seemingly bottomless well of campaign money and aren't shy about spending it either supporting endorsed candidates or pounding opponents. And if Carona is ultimately forced from office and the Supes go the care taker route, candidates will have only a few months in which to organize and raise money. That makes the support of groups that have organization and the ability to raise money -- like the AOCDS and OC GOP -- critical.

Comments

[don]

Does it really matter what the other four Sups think? Moorlach seems to be running that show on his own!

[redperegrine]

"On the Republican side, there has been a deep sense of Carona Fatigue for a long time."

Really? I never heard about it on the OCBlog. I never heard it from Mike Schroeder. I never heard it from John Lewis. I never heard it from any of the Central Committee members who voted to endorse the unendorsable.

Mea culpas, anyone?

[Reeper]

RP: before you go all superior on us, what were the alternatives? Bill Hunt? Be serious. Ralp Martin the man from out of nowhere, who no one knew anything about?

I have seen little criticism of the Sheriff here, but I've also seen little defense of him either.

Jubal spoke of "fatigue", of just being tired of the guy.

Sorry we aren't paragons of perfection like you.

[Flowerszzz]

Well all I can say is I am sad about this and want to convince myself that it is not true. I have always really liked Carona and this is deeply troubling to me. I am not going to judge just yet and wait to see what happens.

[The Mechanical Eye]

Jubal spoke of "fatigue", of just being tired of the guy.

Sorry we aren't paragons of perfection like you.

That's rich.

rp here was just pointing out that OC Blog never outwardly criticized Carona. Better not "rock the boat" like crazy hippies, after all.

In retrospect, this is a short-sighted way to run a prominent blog. Public criticism has a place -- had most people here and in the OC establishment been louder in criticizing Carona, more prominent voices would have worked against him, and his possible successors would have had a chance to prove themselves. As it happened, too many people wanted to go along to play along, and its resulted in this current mess.

You lose credibility if you just look like someone else's water-carrier.

It's pathetic to see politicians now tripping over themselves calling on Carona to resign when they said nothing of consequence to the man for years.

I wasn't aware that asking government officials or their associates for some skepticism and oversight for each other is asking for "perfection."

No wonder this county gets its Chriss Streets.

DU

[redperegrine]

Reeper, that's just grim, bro'.

I don't expect perfection from anybody. But the Republican establishment and it's camp followers got into bed with this character even after seeing the photos with mobsters, the Russian hooker (translater), the audio recordings, the phoney/crony deputies, the cover-up of the second Haidl pick-up, etc., etc., ad nauseam, ad infinitam.

Now why did they do that? Because they weren't perfect?

Moxley saw it. Tim Whitacre saw it. Art Pedroza saw it. So did Hunt and Martin.

So how come the Central Committee missed it? How come all the Republican politicos with their endorsement swapping missed it? Share your theory with me Reep, and don't blame it on lack of perfection.

[LOL]

RP:

Funny, I don't think we ever heard from you on your appointer Chris Norby's sexual harassment conviction.

[Roundup]

Don't forget about Assemblyman Todd Spitzer

1) He is a former sworn law enforcement officer

2) He has over $1 Million Cash on Hand

3) Outstanding campaigner- The Best in OC

4) He has carried for ball on law enforcement issues for the GOP in the Legislature the past 5 years

6) He is loved by AOCDS for putting in place 3% @ 50 while on the Board of Sups

7) He is not part of the OC GOP Establishment

8) See #2

9) See #2

10) See #2

[LOL2]

So Redperegrine (David Zenger), Chris Norby's appointee to the OC Planning Commission, wants to beef John Lewis for not criticizing one of his own clients - even one who threw him off the "Team Forever" bus until he needed him in a pinch?

Rich indeed.

Mr. Zenger, but for Mr. Lewis, you would not sit on the perch that you love so much and it is good to see that your silence about the hundreds of thousands of dollars your beloved Chairman has cost the OC taxpayers due to his own indiscretion has not gone unnoticed.

Todd Spitzer, please he was a Reserve Officer! Let's pray for a professional & experienced Law Enforcement manager, not someone who served as back up and prisoner transport for the real cops.

[Spit this!]

Todd Spitzer??? HAAA! What a joke! Spitzer is partly to blame for the mess we are witnessing today. He was one of the County Supervisors who voted to allow Carona to drastically lower the qualifications for Assistant Sheriff so Carona could hire Jaramillo and Haidl!!! - some former sworn reserve cop, huh?

So because he has a million dollars we should support him?

#4 & #7 are contradictory. He's very much a part of the establishment. In fact, he was running against Tony Rack for District Attorney until he cut a backroom deal with OCGOP leadership to back out of the race so Tony Rack wouldn't have a challenger. You can't be any more part of the establishment than that. He's in bed with Mike Schoreder.

Forget about Assemblyman Todd "Me,me,me" Spitzer!

Bill Hunt is obviously the best non-establishment man for the job.

Todd Spitzer, the same guy who failed as the Orange County Fire Authority Chairman? No thanks.

[I Heart Todd]

I don't know that Todd Spitzer would be interested in being Sheriff, but he'd certainly be a good pick. He's clearly got a passion, interest and acumen for public safety. Todd is arguably the leading "public safety" Republican in California.

[No Backbone]

Why didn't more politico's point this out earlier????

We are run by a bunch of fakes who would sell out for another chance to play big fish. They are so entrenched in power they don't even know they are the problem.

Forget Corona, lets start by replacing all those "I'll scratch your back if you scratch mine" establishment politicians. You know who they are.

When will we learn????

[Endorsments]

Paul Walters endorsed Carona this time around, I bet people may want to look into this fact along with his sons employment not in the jail but in the court house with the OCSD. This would be bad in a campaign.

[redperegrine]

LOL 2, - my "perch"? That's a good one - bird/perch. I see what you did with that one.

But really my perch is not so exalted as all that, I assure you. And really more of a vexation than a love affair since I spend most of my time on the Planning Commission trying to clean up other people's messes.

But this thread isn't about me (or Norby - who can defend his own record if he needs to), rather it is about Carona and about the disengenuous "if only we had known" routine that will soon be the theme song of the OC Republican movers and shakers.

No Backbone: "Forget Corona, lets start by replacing all those "I'll scratch your back if you scratch mine" establishment politicians. You know who they are."

Right you are. Start by reviewing campaign websites to see who still has Carona's endorsement up.

[Purple Progressive]

Because Santa Ana Police Chief Paul Walters has done such a great job in Santa Ana, we should promote him to Sheriff?

[Reeper]

RP:

So you take Carona backers to task for not criticizing his lapses, but a prominent Norby backer -- you -- is under no obligation to criticize him for his?

That's something coming from a guy who uses a couple of photos as evidence. You know for a fact that woman was a hooker? You know for a fact the photo is evidencde of a relationship with a mobster? How hard is it to throw your arm around Carona at an event and have your pal snap a picture? You don't have to undergo a background check for that.

As for your list of witnesses who "saw" what others couldn't -- don't make me laugh. Bill Hunt was singing Carona's praises well after these accusations were coming out. Hunt wanted to be Carona's successor and didn't turn on Carona critic until the Sheriff decided to run for a third term.

Art Pedroza? He's like a broken clock. Pedroza's fabricated so many accusations against so many people it's impossible to take him and the other serial liar, Tim Whitacre, seriously. You should be embarassed to citing them.

Now back to your mountaintop, Dalai Lama, until next you address us mere mortals.

[No Backbone]

I admit, I only know of Hunt through the newspaper articles and we know how full of fact they can be at times. If what I recall is correct and he was demoted after challenging Carona because he pointed out some of these issues, he would have my vote.

As far as him leaving, he was a marked man so to speak. His career was limited by the GOP support of Carona. I don't blame him and think he would have the fire to make things right more than someone who is a lateral or chief promotion.

[redperegrine]

Too funny Reeper. I'm not a prominent backer of anybody. Norby's "lapse" was a crock, and even the jury said so after the trial. It was lumped into a wrongful termination suit just to see what would stick.

That Russian girl didn't seem to be wearing anything BUT Carona's dress jacket. Oh well I'm sure there's a wholesome explanation. Perhaps she was just a cold orphan looking for comfort. And I'm sure that right after the picture was taken with the mobster Carona stopped smiling, recoiled in horror, and threw his drink in the man's face. (But, alas, no! From Moxley: "When The Orange County Register’s Tony Saavedra disclosed in November 2005 that the sheriff had accepted Rizzolo’s $1,500, Carona’s media consultants acknowledged that the men had met “two or three times.”)

So maybe he just returned the dough.

I notice you didn't mention Moxley. Maybe because you have actually read his articles going back over several years.

BTW, you may not like Art or Tim, but they had to suck up a smear campaing against themselves by the Machine (you're still doing it) while the spineless (and worse) were going along for the ride.

[Save Our Sheriff]

Let's give Carona's attorneys time to address these false charges. After all O.J. had a lot of evidence against him and he was found not guilty.

[tylerh]

After all O.J. had a lot of evidence against him and he was found not guilty.

That's rich: we should support Carona because he's like OJ.

But maybe you're right; What Carona really needs is a spirited OJ-like defense. Since Johnny Cochran is no longer with us, it's up to us to find the right ditty that will set our sheriff free. A few ideas:

"If Haidl is false, Carona should waltz"

"Mike's family values aren't distressed; he include his mistress"

"if the fuzz didn't see, the little sheriff should go free."

[Nick]

Well!!! I see many statements about real cops and who does what. First and Foremost, Corona was never a cop. He was a Marshall who said "all rise over and over" for his whole career, before he garnered enough money and support to run for Sheriff.
You wanna talk about being a real cop, well Martin is the real cop. Working firestone and lynwood as a deputy and then moving up through the ranks, working gangs in places like Lynwood, Lennox, and Compton.That's police work, not patrolling places, like Lake forest, Mission Viejo, or San Clemente. It's almost comical to listen to what people think real police work is.
Martin is a Commander in the largest Sheriff department in the world. In fact, realize one thing, OCSD, takes a backseat to LASD and much of what your polices are, come from LASD. Hunt needs more experience to take over.
The better postion is this, Martin as Sheriff, Hunt as Asst. Sheriff until Martin reitres and then Hunt can take over and pretty much walk right in.

[Reeper]

RP:

The woman Norby harassed has a very different view. And she was there, unlike you. If you want to believe Norby's version of events, that's your right.

Maybe you need to look at the picture. She was very much clothed. Pesky details.

And how many people do you think Carona, as a high-ranking elected official, has met "two or three times"?

And what "smear" campaign against Pedroza and Whitacre? Those two smear people as a hobby. Defending them and buying into their "Machine" paranoia just undermines your credibility.

There is a BIG difference between being "Found Not Guilty" and not actually being guilty.