Can the GOP Help Janet Avoid a November Run-Off?

My initial answer to that question is - probably not, since there is still a war raging between Janet and Trung, despite Scott Baugh's effort to strike some sort of peace agreement that is acceptable to both factions. 

According to convention wisdom, Janet's best bet in retaining the 1st Supervisorial District is to win 50% plus 1 vote in next year's June Election to avoid a run-off in November.  Her Democratic opponent, whomever it may be (Joe Dunn, Claudia Alvarez, KimOanh Nguyen-Lam) will be the strongest in November as he or she will benefit from a higher voter turn-out in the Hispanic community and the Democratic political tidal wave that is going to hit California if Hillary Clinton is on the ballot.

The Lincoln Club also understands this and their leadership is trying desperately to at least clear the Republican field for the incumbent by voting to early endorse her, hoping to discourage or make it harder for Trung, Janet's primary GOP opponent, to run again in June '08.  Although, I'm not sure if the Lincoln Club's decision has any bearing on Trung and the Tran machine in Central Orange County.  Let's play Devil's advocate here for a moment and think in Trung's shoes: Why should I back out of this race and stop throwing legal challenges at Janet just to please the Lincoln Club? What have they ever done for me in the past?

And the reality is, the Lincoln Club nor anyone else in the GOP, with the exception of Mike Schroeder, has done anything for Trung so he doesn't owe them anything.

However, for the sake of discussion, let's say Trung is bullied out of this race and Janet, hypothetically, is the only GOP Vietnamese candidate, would this result in a 1 v. 1 battle between her and the endorsed-Democratic candidate? Which is probably the best political scenario that Janet could ask for.  I highly doubted it, especially after reading Part 4 of Martin Wisckol's interview with Wylie Aitken, Chairman of the Democratic Foundation of Orange County.

"If Trung is going to run, I suspect that Andrew would not.  But if Trung doesn't run, I suspect Andrew Nguyen would be susceptible to running," said Wylie Aitken. (Source: Total Buzz)

If Trung Nguyen doesn't run, it would be in the Democrats' best interest to field two candidates: a Vietnamese and non-Vietnamese candidate.  Dump anywhere between $50,000 - $100,000 into the Vietnamese Democrat, the sacrificial candidate, and that's enough to force a run-off.  Wylie Aitken, the Democrats and the Sheriff's Deputies Union get it but I'm not sure if the Republican leaders behind Janet do.

They should ask themselves if it is even worth it to alienate the Tran/Schroeder group when in the end, it is most likely that their incumbent will have to face a run-off in November anyway, regardless if Trung is going to run against Janet again.

Going back to the original question I threw out there: Can the GOP establishment help Janet avoid a November run-off?  You, the readers can answer that for yourself.

Comments

[Lincoln Club is Dead]

When was the last time the O.C. Lincoln club got a candidate to pull out of a race of any importance? They give money on the National scene but nobody cares who they endorse or don't endorse anymore locally. Sorry Doy and Dale and the rest of you nice fellows. Your day is done and it's time to start playing Bingo or lawn bowling in your spare time.

[Cow]

I think the Lincoln Club is still a very influential group, but they just need to make better decision when it comes to which candidate to support and which political fight they should stay out of.

I dont think anyone can help Janet at this point. She has made her bed and she must now lie in it.

[redperegrine]

Hey Tom, can't you find a better picture of Janet?

[NeoCon]

Thats the best picture of Janet I have ever seen.

[Tomahawk]

Red, you're a funny guy you know that? Anyway, alright i'll try to use a different picture next time.

[redperegrine]

Yes, I'm a laugh riot.

The pictures that you use can betray partisanship even if that's not the intent.

On the other hand I have to agree with NeoCon somewhat. Janet's own campaign didn't seem to be able to produce a good photo, either. The best looking one of the campaign was actually produced in a Trung mailer!

[One Who Knows]

Hawk:

Your question is not hard to answer.

Janet can avoid being in a runoff next November (with or without GOP support)by simply not filing for re-election.

See how easy that was?

[Lincoln Club endorsement is worthless]

The only endorsement that matters in Orange County is the OCGOP. I suspect Janet gets it. If I were Baugh, I'd be working very hard to stack the deck for her. After all he is a lobbyist. It is not a criticism of Baugh, he is doing a great job as Chairman but he is a lobbyist and it is in his best interest to keep the Board of Sups happy. Best example, Janet has yet to pay for her Flag Day table. How much does anyone want to bet Baugh never pressure her to pay it.

[I am not Scott Baugh]

If I were Scott Baugh this would be very tempting to endorse Janet. However, last time, the whole GOP gave Carlos its backing and it turned out a disaster. The Dem did not do well either. You don't want to be hurt twice in the row. What if it turns out that another Dem Vietnamese or GOP Vietnamese be victorious then Scott Baugh would hold an empty bag. It would be safe to stay neutral.

[Who is Carlos?]

"I am not Scott Baugh" may be right. The OCGOP endorsement has become a curse, not a blessing, and this election year will be no exception! Bustamonte will be lucky to hang on to his S.A. council seat and he may end up needing to leave the GOP to do it. He many not go Dem but the D/S or Ind. label may be needed in this Hilary dominated General election which will be the one he has to run in. He won't be running against the unknown Sandi Nall this time around and now voters know who Carlos is and his voting record will hurt him!

[The real Question is...]

Neutral ??? Yes, I'm sure the Tran machine is hoping many want to remain neutral, it will help their candidate Trung Nguyen. Personally, I have seen, been told and heard enough to believe that the voters ought to be "raging against the MACHINE". Vote Janet! Vote Janet!

If the Tran Machine were truly a party of Republicans which supported the platforms of the party, I would like to know just which of Janet's platforms they disagree with...beside all the BULL that is hinted at and rumors that are started and whispered campaign junk that is slung at her...where are your facts? I see so much "talk" against her so much "supposition" but as yet, I have only seen one ill-thought action which was her campaign fund or whatever it was to pay her legal bills. She did not redecorate her office with a large screen TV, she did not even design the redecoration, it was done before she was on the board.

I think the $5,000 it will cost to run the "little saigon welfare office" (which is claimed by another poster) because Janet wants to "compete with the" Van/Trung/Tri Ta/Diane Nguyen/Quach/Andrew Nguyen "welfare office"(didn't someone say all the Viet elected officials pay for that office out of their own pockets?) Is a $5K well spent.

I may be naive but I just can't believe that there is nothing in it for those who fund that office...perhaps their pictures hang there? Perhaps the people who come to that office are told it is privately funded (how grateful will the recipients be to their benefactors?) It may be a place that the benefactors go and meet their public, since it's privately funded they can do anything they like there.

A publicly funded office should be able to offer assistance without obligation or gratefulness to the benefactors. Although I do hope the recipients are at least grateful to the taxpayers who pay for the benefits they receive there.

"She did not redecorate her office with a large screen TV, she did not even design the redecoration, it was done before she was on the board."

10:55 Are you smoking crack? She did it in her first month in office. And yes she did get a big screen flat panel TV.

[kudos kate]

Janet has surrounded herself with people who have even less political experience than her. She has made an effort to continue to alienate anyone that might have supported her. This includes public safety.

Janet needs to drop her bs and play nice in the sand box.

[The real Question is...]

Seems impossible to play nice in this sandbox with so much littering it.

No, I'm not smoking crack, call and ask her staff, go to her office and try to find that big screen TV you are talking about and report back with pictures next time.

[The real Question is not ...]

To The real Question is:

The big screen TV order was put on hold after the public outcry. However, her office still spent more than $140K to "upgrade" the office 10 days after she retained her throne. Remember, the previous occupant, Lou Correa, did not spend a dime in his more than 2-year in the office. It shows a hypocrite Janet is, a conservative GOP.

She spent another $170K to open "her campaign" office in the name of "The Little Saigon office of Supervisor Janet Nguyen." Go figure.

BTW, the big screen costs only $4K, a small change to compare with more than $300K to upgrade and open her "office".

Now who's smoking crack?

[The Right Answer]

The Right Answer to the Real Question,

Janet Nguyen couldn't help herlself even of she wants to. Her behavior and conduct got her into this political predicament. Just look at her nasty personality -- disrespctful to others, opinionated, strong will to the point of arrogant and vain, dimly-lit, and can't speak proper Vietnamese and English.

But again, look at some of her Vietnamese advisors -- Nhi Ho, Nick Le Cong, Tony Lam and Company. People who are poltically suspect and disrespected in the community. Like people do ride together.

[Make Trung's day]

Trung Nguyen owes absolutely nothing to the Lincoln Club and the New Majority. Where were they when he first ran for School Board and then for Supe? Trung hasn't cried foul when they endorsed someone else.

Although Trung may know some of these members, he'll make his own mind to run, regardless of these group's decision. It hasn't changed his mind before, then not now.