Just Wondering

I am sure most folks know that the GOP Presidential primary is now by congressional district rather than by state-wide vote.  So a candidate can win delegates in various CD's even if he doesn't win the entire state vote.  The Republican Party's move was designed to draw more candidates, and interest, to the state.  That, along with the earlier primary, seems to be working.  It will be a lot tougher for someone to 'win' California--meaning a clean sweep of all delegates--and much easier for candidates polling in second and third place to win delegates.

That said, it seems like the California MSM is still giving us only state-wide polling information on the candidates.  This is akin to the polling on presidential races being done nationally, rather than by state.  Basically, it is somewhat interesting for picking up trends, but pretty much useless for determining who the winner will be.  For that, you have to look at the electoral college impact of the polling--which must be done by state.  Similarly, here, it seems, the polling must be done by CD in order to give us a true picture of how candidates are doing in California.  This will be a boon, I imagine, for pollsters--but is it being done yet?  I haven't heard.

I'm wondering what people think is actually happening in various regions in the state, especially Orange County.  Giuliani is up in state wide polling, but who else would you say gets delegates from the Golden State?  And where will they come from?  How do you see the CD's in the OC breaking?  Does anyone want to make any specific CD predictions at this point? 

Just a few Friday questions for you.

Comments

[Richard Rios]

Come on Adam P., lets get moving :-)

I think this info would be great to have for the General and also a primary perspective.

I know I would love to get my hands on some more granular data.

Richard Rios
Director and Chief Coordinator-California For Thompson
State Coordinator-FredHeadsUSA
State Coordinator-DraftFredThompson
www.californiaforthompson.com

California's largest grassroots effort to support Fred Thompson for president.