AD71 Watch: By The Numbers

Since the 71th Assembly District GOP primary is shaping up to be one of the hot OC races in 2008, I thought a by-the-numbers profile of the district and the candidates was in order.

The 71st Assembly District straddles Orange and Riverside counties and comprises Corona, Mission Viejo, Rancho Santa Margarita, Orange, Norco, Tustin, Irvine and Anaheim.

There are 126,752 GOP voters distributed as follows across the district:

City                                 Number of GOP Voters          % of AD71 GOP Voters

Mission Viejo                               31,878                                    25.14%

Corona                                         25,159                                    19.8%

Rancho Santa Margarita                15,125                                    11.9%

Orange                                        12,444                                      9.8%

Norco                                            5,732                                      4.5%

Tustin                                           1,766                                      1.4%

Anaheim                                        1,151                                      0.9%

Irvine                                               822                                      0.6%

Unincorporated Area (OC)              27,017                                     21.3%

Unincorporated Area (RC)               5,658                                      4.46%

Approximately 71% of GOP voters are in Orange County versus 29% in Riverside County.

The candidate field thus far:

Corona Mayor Pro Tem Jeff Miller , who has raised (according to his campaign) about $200,000 thus far. Miller has the advantage of being the only Riverside County candidate thus far, plus ties to South OC from living in Mission Viejo for 10 years. Miller has hired Gilliard Blanning Wysocki  & Associates  to run his campaign, and has retained ace fund-raiser Julie Paule for the critical task of helping build the campaign bank account.

Rancho Santa Margarita Councilman Neil Blais has also been raising money prodigiously and has assembled a top-tier campaign team, including general consultant JohnsonClark Associates.

Mission Viejo Councilman John Paul Ledesma is also in the race. No word on what, if any, fundraising ability Ledesma has shown, but he's been aggressively using the illegal immigration issue to generate media coverage. Ledesma has hired Joe Giardiello (Trung Nguyen for Supervisor, Mike McGill for Assembly) as his consultant.

Irvine Councilman Steven Choi is also in the running. I don't know who's running his campaign, but with each of the three biggest cities in the district fielding a candidate, I don't know how competitive a councilman from a city with just 0.6% of GOP voters will be.

Comments

[Other]

It would be helpful to see the GOP + DTS breakdown as well.

DTS does vote in this election. Not useful information.

[We will see]

So Blais is supposedly "raising money prodigiously". We will see the truth when the reports come out in July. Right now it looks like Miller is sitting pretty with a wallet full of cash and a solid base.

[OC Republican]

John Paul Ledesma looks pretty good as the only candidate form Mission Viejo.

[redperegrine]

The most interesting statistic is the number of voters in unincorporated OC - presumably scattered throughout the foothills and canyons, plus OPA. Can there really be 27K of them? Where are their loyalties? Many of the these folk are pretty libertarian - others lean toward the environmental side - although the latter are more likely to be Dems.

[One Who Knows]

Where is Mark Bucher when we really need him?

This seat is tailor made for him.

Run Mark, run!

[Nesta]

Ditto on what OC Republican said.

By the numbers Ledesma has the edge.

[Duh]

Unfortunately for JP those Mission Viejo Republicans know him and that doesn't help him.

Bucher endorsed Blais.

[Escobar Fan]

Blais who? This is race between JP and Miller.

[Eric Linder]

The race is Miller's to lose. Blais has proven he can raise half the money Miller can, yet still remains an unknown, as the previous post mentions.

JP - a good guy, but has proven himself to be insignificant in this race. Can he raise money? He's got some serious catching up to do. He has some watchdogs watching his every move, and they're sometimes critical www.missionviejoca.org

JP does have some help with some of the grassroots clubs, but that will do little good as Miller also shares the title as the "conservative candidate"
and will equally be considered the conservative choice.

Dr. Steven Choi is not to be underestimated in this race as he has some great endorsements, as well as a great campaign team, as we've recently seen in Trung Nguyen's Supervisor race.

Riverside county has a huge stake in this race as Miller will be the second person to go from County Chairman to legislator in a row, therefore, Riverside County Volunteers (a force not to be underestimated) should show up in numbers to help Miller, also possibly making the Chairman's title a nice springboard for up & comers.

[Re: Max Headroom]

"Dr. Steven Choi is not to be underestimated in this race as he has some great endorsements, as well as a great campaign team, as we've recently seen in Trung Nguyen's Supervisor race."

Who is working on his campaign who was also a part of Trung Nguyen's campaign? I think nobody...

[Karl Rove]

Max,

Your analysis is rather flawed. Miller is an unknown in OC. He may have lived here for a while, but nobody I know has ever heard of him, and I have been around these parts for quite some time. As far as being the "conservative" candidate, I question that allegience given his propensity to take signinficant amounts of union money as a city councilman. Just shows you something about the Riverside County GOP to make him the party chairman, and that is why the seat will remain an OC seat. The voters will see right through this RHINO. As far as Miller's war chest, well, Gilliard is known for exaggerating reality when it comes to fundraising hype. Miller may have it, and he may not. I do know that Blais has raised more than he has published, and he has some events scheduled in the upcoming months. He has garnered some pretty good Lincoln Club supporters behind him, and has some New Majority support as well, let alone a host of others that are working in the background on his campaign. I understand Mark Bucher has also endorsed Blais in this race, which delivers a pretty good conservative vote of confidence. His campaign is solid for this point in time and he has excellent fundraising consultants, both locally and in Sacramento. And Johnson-Clark is as good a group as Gilliard, so there is no advantage to Miller there. As far as Ledesma, I do agree with you on him. He is going nowhere because he is doing nothing and I predict it is only a matter of time before his campaign consultant jumps ship because of this inactivity. He hasn't raised any money, and he still has $50,000 in campaign debt from his last city council race. Who is going to get behind this guy? And you are right, he has a lot of detractors in MV many of whom have pledged their support to Blais. Choi is a non-player except just being in the race. I understand his fundraising event last week was a financial disaster in terms of money raised (or not raised). And the fact that no press release has been issued touting a large monetary success, I suspect that what I have heard is correct. I do not believe anyone from Trung's campaign is working for Choi, at least anyone of significance. Blais has pretty good name recognition not only throughout RSM and MV, but in Coto de Caza, Ladera Ranch and Las Flores, which is where most of the 27K OC unincorporated area voters reside. He has also made good inroads in Orange and Tustin, and has cracked into the Riverside County base as well. And I know many of the grass roots volunteers that are going to be working the Blais campaign. Based on what I have seen them do in past campaigns locally, I would have to say that Miller better start doubling his workforce. As far as the money goes, we will all know the truth when the filing period closes at the end of June.

[redperegrine]

"in Coto de Caza, Ladera Ranch and Las Flores, which is where most of the 27K OC unincorporated area voters reside"

Thanks, Karl. That clears up the mystery (to me) of where all those people came from. I didn't realize the 71st went all the way down to the Ortega Hwy.

[Sac Endorsements]

What are Sacramento elected officials doing in this race?

[who?]

"Blais has pretty good name recognitition" - give me a break Karl! Nobody ever heard of the guy, or any of these candidates for that matter. This race is wide open and the best candidate will likely win.

[Crack is Whack, Karl]

"and has cracked into the Riverside County base as well"

Please explain. The first place I would go, if I were to break into a neighboring county might be the central committee meetings. None of the RC Central Committee members could tell you who any of the OC candidates are much less, Neil Blais. But keep spinnin' and maybe it will become true.