OC Blog

Democrat Activist Needs Tutoring In Reality

I was Googling yesterday and found this gem by a Nicole Rivera posted January 17 on the California Progress Report. It's entitled "Orange County Republican Control Eroding Like Southern California's Seaside Cliffs" -- which I actuually hope is an accurate simile, since that would guarantee OC GOP dominance for millions of geological years.

But I digress.

Nicole's post is a pretty standard rally-the-troops philippic, but she drops some doozies into it.

For example:

The election of State Senator Lou Correa in Orange County has marked yet another shifting of tides for Orange County Republicans. What was once thought to be a Republican stronghold in California is now facing erosion much like Southern California’s seaside cliffs. The Democratic Party, bolstered by Howard Dean’s 50 state strategy of leaving no county behind has taken root here in the O.C.

Huh? Howard Dean?

A Funny Thing About Benny Diaz's Campaign Report...

I was just looking at the campaign report of Benny Diaz, the Latino Democrat running, for some inexplicable reason, in the 1st Supervisor District special election -- and who really needs to work on his penmanship.

Diaz is running a barebones, grassroots campaign among Latino voters -- the some voters Carlos Bustamante is courting. Diaz has only enough money for signs (which Art Pedroza helped him design).

And where does the money come from? Precisely five contributors. What's interesting is two of Diaz's biggest donors (he only has three big donors) have also maxed out to Umberg: the Orange County Employees Association and Michael Ray.

I don't know why they gave to Diaz and haven't asked them. But it's interesting that two major Umberg boosters (Umberg's contribution reports are dotted with Rays) are underwriting the campaign of a Democrat candidate whose only real effect is to help Umberg by hurting Bustamante.

But hey -- it's a free country.

Who's Giving To Umberg?

Color me strange, but I actually like looking through campaign finance reports. I find it interesting to see who's giving to whom.

I finally took a look through Tom Umberg's January 1-20 filing. It's replete with contributions from a myriad of union PACS, but there were some interesting individual donations:

$500 from Blake Anderson: The former General Manager of the OC Sanitation District who was canned following the furor over his spending tens of thousands of dollars on a consulting contract with a New Age guru. For some reason, the report lists his occupation as "General Manager, Orange County Sanitation District" even though he was fired about a year-and-a-half ago.

1,500 from Lawrence Agran: You and I know him as "Larry" the mayor of Irvine. What a shock! But Umberg used to live in Irvine, after all -- before he moved to Garden Grove to run against then-Assemblyman Curt Pringle in 1990.

$500 from Brian Bennett: Brian certainly has come full circle in central OC politics -- from running the Bob Dornan operation and a few abortive legislative/congressional candidacies as a conservative Republican, to now donating to The Democratic Choice for Supervisor!

$100 from Jerry Patterson: This is really only interesting in the context of Brian Bennett, since it was Brian's old boss Bob Dornan who ended Patterson's career in Congress.

$1,500 from Denise Bittel: Denise doomed her chances for the OC GOP endorsement of her doomed Orange Unified School Board candidacy last year by contributing to Umberg's state Senate campaign. I assume this means she's writing off any future shot at an OC GOP endorsement.

$500 from Belal "Bill" Dalata: Dalati cements his status as a Democrat  by giving to The Democratic Choice for Supervisor! Note to Dems: don't be mean to Bill, because then he might re-register.

$250 from Harvey Englander: What a cheapskate! Harvey can certainly afford to max out -- pony up, man! Maybe Harvey thinks Tom isn't running a vicious enough campaign.

$1,500 from Kay Rackauckas: Fascinating.

$1,500 from Planned Parenthood of Orange and San Bernardino Counties Community Action: A late contribution from the abortion mill. Lovely.

$1,000 From Disney Worldwide Services: The Magic Kingdom pitches in.

Here's a strange bedfellows situation: Umberg received a late $1,000 contribution from John C. Manly, the attorney who has made his fortune suing the Catholic Church. He also received a $250 from Magnuson & Waters -- partner Meg Waters used to be a media consultant to the Diocese of Orange when they were/are being sued by Manly.

Viet Dominance Of Returned Absentees Continues

Here are the latest numbers on the returned absentees in the 1st Supervisor Special election (courtesy of my man Saulo G. Londono from the Trung Nguyen campaign):

Of the 2,972 newly processed ballots, 49% are from the Vietnamese community.

With 26,018 total ballots processed:

Partisan Breakdown

Republicans: 12,841 (49%)/ out of 31,868 (40% turnout)

Democrats:   8,714 (33%)/ out of 26,462 (33% turnout)

DTS:            3,905 (15%)/ out of 10,615 (37% turnout)

Total:          26,018 (100%)/ out of 70,614 (37% turnout)

Ethnic Breakdown

Vietnamese: 12,414 (48%)/out of 24,443 (51% turnout)

Hispanics: 2,965 (11%)/out of 15,407 (19% turnout)

Other: 10,639 (41%)/out of 30,764 (35% turnout)

Geographic Breakdown

Garden Grove:  9,256 (36%)/out of 22,552 (41% turnout)

Westminster: 7,192 (28%)/out of 16,978 (42% turnout)

Santa Ana:  8,911 (34%)/out of 29,496 (30% turnout)

Midway City: 555 (2%)/out of 1,230 (45% turnout) 

Ethnic Breakdown in Santa Ana (8,911)

Vietnamese: 2,684 (30%)/out of 5,219 (51% turnout)

Hispanics: 2,087 (23%)/out of 11,821 (18% turnout)

Ethnic Breakdown in Garden Grove (9,256)

Vietnamese: 5,172 (56%)/out of 10,298 (50% turnout)

Hispanics: 575 (6%)/out of 2,408 (24% turnout)

Ethnic Breakdown in Westminster (7,192)

Vietnamese: 4,164 (58%)/out of 8,193 (51% turnout)

Hispanics: 273 (4%)/out of 989 (28% turnout)

1st SD Mailbox: Janet Mails To Democrat And DTS Women

The Janet Nguyen for Supervisor campaign continues its quest to compete in every voter demographic in the 1st Supervisor District special election.

Here's a mailer that hit yesterday. It's an "I Am Woman" mailer targeting female Democrats and Decline-To-States -- a letter from California Women's Leadership Association President Susan Caskey asking her fellow women to "make history" by making Janet Nguyen the first woman supervisor from the 1st Supervisor District.

Indignation Alert To Democrats: the CWLA is a Republican group -- but they don't tell that to the Dems and DTS voter receiving this letter! The deception! The misleading...ness! The horror!

1st SD Mailbox: AOCDS IE Responds To Bustamante Mailer

Here's a another pro-Umberg mailer from -- surprise, surprise surprise ! -- the Association of Orange County Deputy Sheriffs.

In it they finally mention that he's a Democrat.

That's probably because it is being mailed to Democrats in direct response to Carlos Bustamante's "Independent Democratic Orange County Voters Guide." The notification went out yestrday afternoon, which means the mailer will probably hit tomorrow or the day after. So if the Umberg campaign was planning it's own response mailer, they can yank it and spend the money on something else.

Bustamante polls well among Demcoratic voters -- voters that would, for the most part, vote for Umberg. The Bustamante mailer must have had an effect if the AOCDS thought it necessary to respond. It provides some illumination on Umberg's situation. I doubt his campaign and IE allies were prepared for the extent to which Vietnamese voters have dominated this special election, and I sincerely doubt he's competitive for the votes. Umberg was initially polling well among GOP voters, but the OC GOP member communications  -- and targeted mail by the GOP candidates  -- have likely beaten that support down significantly.

Plus, Umberg has Democrat Mark Rosen and Republican Carlos Bustamante siphoning off Democrat votes -- hence this AOCDS mailer to Democrats.

This isn't to say Umberg isn't still the front-runner, but I think this race tight and an Umberg victory isn't a foregone conclusion -- especially if the Vietnamese voting trend continues unabated.

Red County/OC Blog News Roundup -- January 31, 2007

Today's top stories from behind the Orange Curtain:

County's CEO WIll Stay -- OCR and LAT
Tom Mauk does turnaround on Los Angeles County job offer.

Pricier Marina For Dana Point -- OCR
The initial $50 million renovation proposal is now expected to cost $84.7 million.

Editorial: Free Up The Car-Pool Lanes -- OCR
OCTA pushing smart rule changes to increase lane use and to ease entering and exiting

Laguna Votes Down Tax Rebate -- OCR
Residents will not see refunds on some purchases of more than $10,000.

Best Buy Pulls Out -- OCR
The electronics chain withdraws from a redevelopment of the Movieland site, sending Buena Park back to the drawing board.

Santa Ana Points The Way -- OCR
Board OKs funds for signs on city's confusing government buildings.

Anaheim Mayor Emphasizes Green Policies In Speech -- OCR
The State of the City address covers rebates for environmentally friendly building.

Taste Of Power Turned Sour -- OCR
Jaramillo, ex-assistant sheriff headed for jail, had 'an illusion of invulnerability,' a criminologist says.

Jaramillo Was Pressured Into No-Contest Plea, Prosecutors Say -- LAT
Officials say allegedly forged papers were used as leverage, but the former O.C. assistant sheriff's attorney denies it.

Students Stunned After Principal Charged With Lewd Conduct -- LAT
El Modena High students wonder over the respected administrator's arrest in a restroom during a sting operation at a Fullerton park.

Campaign Donor Limit Inches $100 Higher -- LAT
The Orange County Board of Supervisors voted Tuesday to raise the limit on political contributions for all county candidates to $1,600, an increase of $100.

Tom Harman: Check IDs At Polling Places -- DP
Huntington Beach state Sen. Tom Harman wants you to vote, but first he wants to see your ID.

1st SD Mailbox: ... Trung Mails Twice

...And here is the second mailer we received at Stately Leyes Manor this week from First District Supervisorial candidate Trung Nguyen. That's two mailers in two days, and not much else in the mailbox to compete with him.

This piece is also 8.5x11, formatted 'landscape,' and agains repeats familiar themes and imagery. It features a photo and testimonial from Assemblyman Van Tran.

This mailer is also clearly directed to Republicans, continuing Trung's now apparent strategy of targeting Republican voters in addition to his ethnic Vietnamese base. This is the trademark campaign playbook of Van Tran and his allies, which has been remarkably successful in local elections ... at least, to date.

1st SD Mailbox: Trung Mails Once...

The mail is surprisingly light at Stately Leyes Manor considering that the election is now just one week away. But each of the last two days has produced mailers from First District Supervisorial candidate Trung Nguyen. The pieces are starting to look a lot alike, but he gets points for his relentless pace.

The first mailer from Trung is a 8.5x11 card that repeats some of the catch-phrases and imagery of his earlier mailers. This one labels him "the conservative" and has photos of him with McClintock and Lynn Daucher so I presume it targeted Republicans.

1st SD Mailbox: Catching up with Carlos

I just obtained a copy of a mailer that First District Supervisorial candidate Carlos Bustmante sent to Westminster featuring Westminster City Councilman Kermit Marsh. I understand this piece was sent over a week ago, but was just shared with me in the last couple of days.

The mailer is 8.5x11 folded once and includes a "letter" from Kermit Marsh that is very similar to the press release he issued when he withdrew as a candidate and endorsed Carlos Bustamante.