OC Blog

AD73 Watch: Diane Harkey for Assembly's Endorsement Freight Train Picks Up Steam

This just came over the transom from the Diane Harkey for Assembly campaign:

MAYOR DIANE HARKEY ENDORSED BY ORANGE COUNTY ASSEMBLY MEMBERS CHUCK DEVORE, TODD SPITZER, JIM SILVA, VAN TRAN, MIKE DUVALL AND BOB HUFF FOR THE 73RD ASSEMBLY DISTRICT

Orange County (CA)--- Dana Point Mayor Diane Harkey announced today that she has been endorsed by Orange County Assembly Members Chuck DeVore, Todd Spitzer, Jim Silva, Van Tran, Mike Duvall and Bob Huff for the 73rd California State Assembly District Republican Primary election in June of 2008.

“Along with my Honorary Campaign Chairman, Mimi Walters, I am now endorsed by all of the Republican Members of the State Assembly that represent Orange County,” said Mayor Harkey.  “I am truly grateful, honored and humbled by all of their support.”

In addition to the Orange County Republican Assembly delegation, Mayor Harkey is also endorsed by Republican Congressmen John Campbell (CD 48), Ken Calvert (CD 44),  Darrell Issa (CD 49) and Ed Royce (CD 40).

The 73rd Assembly District includes the cities of Laguna Niguel, Dana Point, Laguna Hills, San Juan Capistrano, San Clemente, Oceanside and Camp Pendleton.

Brea-Olinda, Cypress Council Recounts Called Off

I was at the OC Registrar's office yesterday afternoon and learned the recounts in the Brea-Olinda Unified School District and Cypress City Council had been called off.

In the Brea-Olinda race, Kevin Hobby trailed Sue Anthony Nowers 3,624 votes to 3,630 -- a margin of just 6 votes. Ouch.

In Cypress, Del Davis trailed Prakash Narain 4,680 votes to 4,723 votes --  a  43 vote margin.

The OC Registrar staff spent the weekend preparing for the recount, which commenced on Monday and was called off by the requesting candidates when it became clear the result was not going to change. And it's a lucky thing for them to call off the recount when they did, because now they won't be charged.

Election Day Was Dia De Las Victorias For SchubertFlint

This well-deserved victory-lap press release came over the transom yesterday from SchubertFlint Public Affairs:

SCHUBERT FLINT PUBLIC AFFAIRS CELEBRATES ORANGE COUNTY ELECTION DAY VICTORIES

Award Winning Public Affairs Firm Wins Five Races in Orange County

ANAHEIM, CA – Schubert Flint Public Affairs Inc., was tapped to manage one high-profile countywide measure, three local measures and a Mayoral reelection campaign for this election cycle. In each instance, Schubert Flint Public Affairs was victorious in its efforts.

Yes on Measure M Renewal
The hotly debated transportation tax extension was passed by nearly 69 percent of Orange County voters.  According to the Orange County Business Council, no countywide transportation funding program in Orange County has received the necessary 2/3 vote since 1912.  It’s worth noting that a majority of the local option transportation sales tax measures throughout the state did not receive the necessary two-thirds vote yesterday.

...And November Election Losers

And now the time has come to review some of Election Day's losers, here behind the Orange Curtain:

Cassie DeYoung
What can you say about someone who puts $2.6 million of her own money into a supervisor campaign, spends it on everything except carrier pigeons to communicate to voters, and garners just 37.3%? Then, that certain someone puts another $775,000 and pushes it to 46.7%

Would you say that person has a bright future in OC politics?

Neither would I.

Cassie DeYoung proved to the world that there is someone who wants to be a county supervisor so badly she will spend more than $3 million of her own money on that ambition. It's a free country, so why not.

Pat Bates is a class act, an experienced campaigner and a veteran vote-getter. But she's not invincible - nobody is against that much campaign cash. Bates' victory owed a lot to her qualities and the savvy of her campaign team -- but it is also a testament to what a bad candidate DeYoung proved to be. She periodically reinvented her campaign persona, and never advanced a consistent, coherent message to the voters -- even as she buried them in a mind-numbing flood of mail.

November 2006 Election Winners...

Orange County election outcomes are settled with the major exception of the 34th Senate District, so it's time to review the some of the biggest winners and loser from yesterday's election.

Winners

Jeff Flint
Jeff had a huge day yesterday as lead consultant in the two biggest initiative campaigns in Orange County:  Yes On Measure M and No On Measure X. Vaulting over the two-thirds threshold renew Measure M was a very tall mountain to climb, especially in tax-averse Orange County, and the Flint led Yes on M team did it with 68.5%.

Measure X was a dagger pointed at the heart of property rights and  representative government -- a virus that would have spread to other municipalities if it passed in Newport Beach. Kudos to Jeff for devising a successful campaign to drive a stake through its heart.

Both victories will no doubt make Jeff and SchubertFlint Public Affairs an even hotter commodity.

Team Daucher
Even if Lynn Daucher is unable to hold on to her razor-thin lead, Team Daucher must still be counted in the Winners column. The post-primary conventional wisdom -- to which I subscribed for time -- was that Lou Correa would run her over  over in the general. Team Daucher, led by Jim Nygren and on-site manager Bryan Lanza, did exactly what they said they were going to do, and which few people believed. They commenced an intense general election campaign even before the primary, and never let up. Lou Correa was caught napping and had to scramble to catch up.

Kudos to Lynn Daucher and her team for disregarding post-primary naysayers such as myself and powering forward.

Predictions Contest Winners

And now, the moment our readers have been waiting for...the inners of the November 2006 Election Predictions Contest!

Measure M: The 69.3% "yes" predicted by "Bill Braski" makes him the winner of the Just Like Dad bubblegum cigarettes for use on any county beach. The unofficial final tally is 68.5% "Yes".

Measure X: "Bill Braski" wins again with a prediction of 54.8% for the "No" side, and he will receive the Cold War Unicorns. The unofficial final tally  was a 62.2% "No" vote.

5th Supervisor District: Orange Juice blogger Luis Rodriguez ventured an uncannily close prediction of 53% for Pat Bates (the unofficial final tally being 53.3%), for which he'll receive the Marie Antoinette Action Figure.

47th Congressional District: Faithful reader Redperegrine posts his second win in a Red County/OC Blog predictions contest with his prognostication of 60.1% for Loretta Sanchez -- for whom the unofficial final tally is 61.9%).

34th Senate District: This is too close to call, so I'll postpone declaring the winner of the Dashboard Ninja Set until a winner is certified in the 34th SD.

Thanks to everyone their predictions. Who knows? If Correa prevails, we'll be having another prediction contest in early February.

Winners need to e-mail me their address in order to recieve their prize (pseudonymous contestants' identities will be kept sacrosanct).

Veterans for Congress 2006: Fightin' Dems vs. Chickenhawks?

We've all heard plenty about "cut and run" or "stay the course" in Iraq. But what do those sound bytes really mean? Our OC congressional delegation has largely remained quiet on the war debate, consistent with the “silence of the lambs” as described in Thomas Ricks’ #1 NYT bestseller Fiasco: The American Military Adventure in Iraq. If Reps. Campbell, Rohrabacher, Royce and Sanchez (I’m skipping Calvert and Miller) had served in the military or have their own children fighting in harm’s way, would they feel differently?

With the war Iraq cited as the top issue in today’s midterm elections according to the Washington Post, control of the House and the Senate could shift by tonight, depending on a handful of races including involving veterans, especially them Fightin' Dems. Nearly a year ago, the Democratic National Committee set out to enlist veterans to run for Congress. Of course those candidates received little attention when compared to the war faces of the Democratic Party, mainly Vietnam veterans like John Murtha, John Kerry and Max Cleland. The GOP has its share of veterans like Senator John "POW" McCain, outgoing chairman of the House Armed Services Committee Duncan Hunter (his Marine son served in Iraq) and disgraced and jailed Top Gunner Randy "Duke" Cunningham. Remember those Chickenhawks?

Veterans are rarely elected to Congress soon after they leave the military, McCain an exception. In 1994, two Gulf War vets won election along with 32 other GOP candidates running for Congress and governors. No Iraq/Afghanistan veteran currently serve in Congress. A number of veterans-run organizations and PACs have poured money into these tight races. They include the Iraq and Afghanistan Veterans of America, VoteVets Action Fund, and Vets for Freedom Action Fund.

A 2005 Military Times poll found that 56 percent of military personnel described themselves as Republicans, and 13 percent described themselves as Democrats. (This is the same paper that published the editorial "Rumsfeld Must Go" yesterday.) Yet the GOP could only muster one candidate, Marine and Harvard grad Van Taylor who's running in the district with GW's ranch in Crawford, Texas. Lately Taylor seems to be running out of steam against his Democrat opponent resulting in the GOP pulling support recently.

Which one of these veterans will take the Hill by tonight? By far, Democrat-Republican-Democrat James Webb in Virginia (his Marine son is currently in Iraq) has received the most attention since George “Macaca” Allen fumbled away his presidential hopes and maybe his Senate seat. Webb is legendary is the Marine Corps. For 20 years, his novel Fields of Fire has been required reading for lieutenants and sergeants. He is a personal friend and I have refrained from writing about his race until today. Last night Bill Clinton headlined his final campaign rally which attracted 5,000 die-hards as compared to Allen’s meekly 250.

Brendan Conway, an editorial writer at the Washington Times, nicely covers other hopeful veteran candidates in today's The American Spectator. Double-amputee Tammy Duckworth was spurned an endorsement by the antiquated Veterans of Foreign Wars (VFW), an organization which I have allowed my membership to lapse. Retired Admiral Joe Sestak leads embattled Curt Weldon in Pennsylvania. Once again, like the George Allen meltdown, the power of incumbency only wanes when there’s a scandal on hand.

When the smoke is cleared, about five or six (10% of the 60 or so candidates) will win their races. That number correlates to the percentage of veterans in our population (26 million vets in a country of 300 million or 200,000 vets out of 3 million residents in the OC). How much does a military record count in politics these days?

Midway City Sanitary District Mailbox: Dang! Truong Diep's 3rd Mailer

Hard-charging young Midway City Sanitary District candidateTruong Diep sent out his third mail piece over the weekend, an English/Vietnamese postcard.

Truong has raised more than $23,000 for a seat on a special district of which few Orange Countians have ever heard, and lining up some top shelf GOP endorsements for his run. I must say, I will definitely be keeping on eye on the returns from this race.

What's Happening In The Westminster School Board Race?

Mike Lawson of TheLiberalOC wrote an interesting and informative post yesterday about the Westminster School District Race, and I encourage our readers to read it.

Mike also reproduces part of a mailer from the Our Children-Our Vote Coalition Committee which claims that Westminster School District Trustee Judy Ahrens is "financed by the WTA [Westminster Teachers Union."

Judy Ahrens e-mailed me regarding this mailer and the issues surrounding the election:

The Anti-John Duong Mailer

I haven't had time to focus on the Irvine races as much as I'd like, and just now had a chance to read the anti-John Duong mailer sent out by the Los Angeles-based Common Sense Voter Guide.

The Agran crowd is a rough one, and I doubt John Duong was under any illusions regarding the type of campaign that would be waged against him. John works for a decades-old, successful real estate developer with lots of properties -- a target rich environment for an opposition researcher to dredge public records and bring up citations of various kind spanning the years, which can then be served up -- out of context, undifferentiated and unexplained -- in a negative mailer. Mix in an unflattering picture that makes John Duong look like a Vietnamese Tony Soprano, imply he's linked to Asian street gangs -- and voila! you have a real stink bomb.