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December 26, 2006


Guantanamo Tom is in the race!

Will Janet throw in the towel? Will Carlos pull out? Will Claudia still run just to go after Tom again? Will Rosen not return papers? Does Trung have enough fire in the belly to beat Umberg? Or could this be a ploy by Tom to keep Janet and others out and Tom will not return papers but it will be ROSEN will return them at 4:58pm. The drama is killing me! Be there to watch all the action live at the voter Registrar on South main this afternoon!

Divorce lawyer

Does anyone have Mrs. Umberg's number?

Elroy El

How interesting that Umberg haters attack him via his spouse.

His policy judgements must be sound since no is attacking them.

And that is one of the many reasons I would vote for him if I could.


Kind of like how you attack Bustamante via his consultants?

I too spoke to Rosen today. He is definitely "in". He claims he hasn't spoken to Umberg!

umberg never gets it

Unbelievable!! No way Umberg would run. I think it may be a ploy with Rosen and to keep Claudia out. He'll never turn in papers and file officially.

Elroy El

Hey Pedrozbot. What are you talking about? All I pointed out was the reputation of Bustamante's consultants was overstated given their last successes (or lack thereof) in the last election in MV.

If Carlos wants to spend his money on folks who are more hype than hope, I would be the last person to tell him otherwise.



But you're characterization is dishonest, otherwise you would have to discount every consultant who loses a race -- and every consultant does once in a while.

If you were honest, you would have to admit that Lewis and Holder are among the best consultants in the county. Clearly, you have some agenda or issue with them that clouds your capacity for honest analysis -- no matter how much you protest otherwise.


John & matt are very good but like football coaches everywhere have to deal with candidates-players they recruit or that walk on. The players have weaknesses that get exploited and they will find that out once again with Mr Bustamante. And John and Matt will be the first to tell you that they aren't perfect. But I'd rather have them on my sidelines then the other. Great mail.

This time they are not on familiar GOP turf. Its like moving from Fieldturf of South County High Schools to the dirt fields that Santa Ana grade school kids play on because the grass has been worn out. We'll see if they can adapt. If Carlos can pull this one off then its a big plus for them.

Art Pedroza


Lewis and Holder are in for a nasty surprise. Santa Ana is not like the rest of the "red" county. It is blue and their candidate, Carlos, is amongst the weaker nominees in the field. If he cannot hold his own against Claudia Alvarez, how will he do so against Umberg? Adios Carlitos!


If he cannot hold his own against Claudia Alvarez, how will he do so against Umberg?

You're right, Art -- being unable to shut Claudia Alvarez is totally related to whether or not you can win an election.

You cannot honestly believe the tired spin you ladel out here, do you Art? You'd be a more effective spokesman for Janet if you weren't so over-the-top all the time.

Umberg would quit in two years....

If Tom Umberg wins he will stay in Orange County exactly two years if a Democrat is elected President in 2008. At that time Tom would take a high level cabinet position if offered one. He liked being Clinton’s Drug Czar and if he were offered an even higher level cabinet post he what jump on it in a New York minute leaving the Sheriffs
Association to bemoan the fact that the wasted their money on another short timer.

Elroy El

PBot. You've now concluded I was attacking Carlos via his consultants and now I have an agenda against Lewis and Holder. You claim Lewis and Holder are amongst the best in the biz. Fair enough. Based on what? I don't expect them to win every race. That's unreasonable for any consultant. But what is their recent track record. After all isn't that what counts? Pedroza claims they can only do so much with a given candidate. Well, I believe it's easy to win with a good candidate. It takes skill to win with a marginal or poor candidate. What is the Lewis record with marginal or poor candidates. Is it any better than anyone else's? If not wouldn't one be able to conclude they are no better than anyone else?

You've claimed I am attacking Carlos and I have an agenda against Lewis and Holder. The former is ridiculous since I've never met Carlos and the latter statement is absurd given I have only discussed the Lewis and Holder team performance in MV.

But if you want to believe I personally dislike all of the above I am one of those crazy liberals that believes you have a right to wrong opinion.


Umberg was not the drug czar. He was deputy to the drug czar, retired Army General Barry McCaffrey.

Elroy El

PBot. I've been thinking about this since my last post. First of all, my statement about candidates being weak or strong is directed to Bladerunner.

But to reinforce my perspective on Lewis and Holder being one of the best. I guess one might believe the three candidates in MV were "weak" candidates. Not knowing them, I can't tell, but maybe you can give some insight.

But arguably the strongest candidate the L & H team managed this past year was none other than Sheriff Mike Carona. Given a two term incumbency, an ample warchest, significant name i.d. and the best the TEAM could do against much lesser opponents in every category was the avoiding of a runoff by less than one percentage point.

If that is the standard to determine who is better than others I have to believe it isn't a high bar to jump over.

I would say Carlos has his work cut out for him.


Uh, it was enough to win, wasn't it? Seems like you are arguing against your own point. Carlos only needs to get more votes than everybody else.

Elroy El

I guess that is one way to look at it. Another might be that L & H aren't as effective as believed. Given the assets of the Carona campaign a less than one percent win (when he predicted only 2 months earlier a landslide win) was embarassing given their rep.

And like I said, they o-ferred in MV. If there is brilliance there, I'm not seeing it.



Since you admit not knowing Lewis's and Holder's consulting record, how can you make the judgments against them that you do? You condemn yourself with your own admission of ignorance.

Elroy El

pBot. Not at all. I am only detailing their record and asking the question if that track record (a strong candidate avoiding a runoff against two much weaker rivals by less than one point, and getting shut out in a city council race with three candidates) is now the standard of being considered one of the 'best' in the business?

If that is now the standard I will stand corrected.



You claim to be "detailing their record" even as you admit ignorance of their record other than a couple of races. You can't have it both ways.

You're trapped by our own words. Stop trying to spin your way out of it. Admit it.

I'm not to one claiming they're crappy consultants -- you are. It's not my job to prove your points for you.

Elroy El

PBot. Please answer the question. The record of Lewis and Holder is one for four in their last candidate races.

Is 25% considered the standard for being considered one of the best in the business?

Do you have proof of a greater success rate? If so please put it forth to prove me wrong.

I'm not including Measure M or Measure D since initiatives are much different than running a candidate.

We are being led to believe that since Carlos has hired them that is enough to send a shiver of fear through the other candidates. I am only asking why that fear should exist with a track record of such little success.

I've put forth my rationale. You've yet to prove me wrong with anything other than an opinion with no basis in fact.


Like I said, it ain't my job to prove your thesis for you. Your basing your judgment about someone -- John Lewis -- who has been running political campaigns for nearly 30 years on the basis of Carona's re-election (avoiding a run-off was a minor miracle) and three MV council races. Holder's been managing campaigns for almost a decade.

You're the one being intellectually lazy. Don't expect me to do your thinking and research for you.

Elroy El

PBot. You've made my point for me. With all the experience you tout their most recent success rate is 25%.

If I were any of the opponents in this race I would be very encouraged.

No intellectual laziness here. I've put forth my proofs via empirical evidence and no one has refuted them. Your refutation is based upon an opinion with no support. Somehow the years of experience translates into effectiveness, when in fact just the opposite has occurred.

Like I said earlier. 25% must now be the new standard to be considered one of the best.

Thanks for the reinforcement.



I think you're missing PBot's point. Say, for example, you had a baseball team that had a .750 season, and then extracted the last four games during which their record was .250 and pronounced them a bad baseball team.

That, I think, is what PBot is accusing you of doing -- and I would agree. Not just because John and Matt are long time friends of mine, but because I'm familiar with their record and think your assessment of their capabilities is far off-the-mark.

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