More On the 1st Supervisor District Race

This morning, a 1st Supervisor District observer e-mailed these observations (I'm on vacation, so apologies for not posting earlier):

I believe that at two Nguyens are serious about filing.  One is Truong Nguyen, of the Garden Grove Unified School District Board of Trustees.  The other is Janet Nguyen of the Garden Grove City Council.  Both have indicated to me their intent to run.  They are not friends.

I do not believe that both will run, however, both will declare and raise money briefly.  One of the two will drop out of the game of political chicken.  However, the non-Vietnamese candidates will want that vote diluted, so an Otto Bade style campaign will be employed with a lower visibility Vietnamese American candidate, probably named Nguyen, thrown in to drain votes.

My prediction is 2 Nguyens will run in the special election, but more than 2 will claim they are setting up exploratory committees before that.

If I'm right, can I have a mug?

An attractive Red County/OC Blog mug? Sure, what the hell.

Obviously, Quang's posting earlier this evening has proven part one of above prediction true. I alos received this e-mail from Davie Gilliard:

I wanted to give you a heads up - that Janet Nguyen is definitely running for Supervisor. I will be handling her campaign and she already has over $200,000 for the race, with more on the way. I also heard that Tom Umberg is probably going to run.

I was discussing the possibility of an Umberg candidacy with a friend recently. There's a certain logic to an Umberg candidacy.

The special election for the 1st SD will be a crowded sprint. If memory serves, the special will be on February 6. Candidates with higher name recognition will have a definite advantage. Umberg has higher name recognition, having won several legislative contests in the central OC. Unfortunately for Umberg, nuch of that name ID is negative in the wake of the 34th SD primary. Still, if you have two Vietnamese candidates, a couple of Hispanic candidates and a white Democrat Garden Grove Councilman, Umberg might have a shot in a winner-take-all election where the winner might only grab 20% of the vote.

Finally, Assemblyman Van Tran's comment in the Trung Nguyen press release would seem to confirm thr rumor of a Van Tran-Janet Nguyen falling out after his decision not to run for the 34th SD pulled the plug on her incipient 68th Assembly District race. It would also seem to squelch speculation that Van himself might run.

Comments

[Quang]

Van Tran is happy where he is for the next four years. He has reaffirmed to me that he is not running. He's definitely backing Trung Nguyen. There is another Vietnamese-American businessman lurking out there. Let's see if he actually files.

White candidates run against white candidates all the time. So do Hispanics. Why shouldn't Vietnamese with the same last name run against each other in the same district? I am just glad there hasn't been too many Phams running except career candidate Long Pham in the 68th AD.

Umberg would make a very strong candidate but I wonder if someone who got beat soundly in June (40-60) could regroup that quickly? Is his 69th AD apartment within the 1st SD? I think Villa Park is not...

For O-Juicers:

Luis Rodriguez--Nice try! I am not running nor I am interested in entering a local race in the OC anytime in the near future.

Art Pedroza -- Instead of posting that you heard from your little birds or sources, why don't you just email or pick up the phone to confirm candidate intentions?

[Be serious]

"I do not believe that both will run, however, both will declare and raise money briefly. One of the two will drop out of the game of political chicken."

Anyone who draws such conclusions knows nothing about history or about Little Saigon. This is war. It is personal. Expect ugliness. And expect neither to back down any time soon.