Daucher's Lead Widens To 833. Is It A Lock?

Counting continues for the 34th Senate District. The ROV results released earlier today increased Daucher's lead to 833.

OC Democratic Party Executive Director Mike Levin places his hope in the belief that late absentees will break toward Correa -- something I wouldn't bet the farm on.

I subsequently received this e-mail from Paul Mitchell, political director and COO for EdVoice:

Today Assemblymember Lynn Daucher gained additional ground against Supervisor Lou Correa, and is now leading by 833 votes. 

Of the 5,200 ballots counted today, she won at a rate of 52%.  With the presumption that there were 7,000 votes outstanding, Correa would now have to win at a rate of 80% in order to overtake Daucher.

November 9th        

1378        B       Ballots Outstanding  

43204      C       Correa Total  

44037      D       Daucher Total  

80%         x       Percentage Correa Needs to Tie

20%        1-x     Percentage Daucher Needs to Tie        

       Formula: xb+c=(1-x)b+d          

                    80%              

52%         Y       Percentage Daucher won in today's count

I don't pretend to understand how this formula was derived, but I like the result.

Comments

[still counting.....]

The only problem with the number there is that according to Wiskol's post, there are 12,000 to 17,500 ballots still to be counted. Given the greater number of ballots outstanding, the percentage of ballots correa needs to overtake daucher drops significantly. While all signs point to Senator Daucher, Correa is still not out of it...

[JozefColomy]

Stick a fork in the Supervisor; he's done.

[Nemesis]

Of the 5,200 ballots counted today, she won at a rate of 52%. With the presumption that there were 7,000 votes outstanding, and using the formula: (x)b+c=(1-x)b+d from my previous posting, Correa would now have to win at a rate of 80% in order to overtake Daucher. If there were 9,000 remaining after today, then he has to win at a 63% rate. Even if there was the ludicrous amount of 17,000 ballots remaining, he would have to win 54%. At this far end of the spectrum he would be winning ALL of the remaining absentees by 8%, or a 12-point switch from what we’ve seen for the past three days.

Best bet is this: Lynn will take another 2/3 of the remaining ballots at this 52% rate. Then, Correa will take the final 1/3 (where provisionals start to be included) at a 55-60% rate. This means that Daucher will continue to open the gap as Correa loses turf in which to make up the difference. Daucher will win this one… but until then I will forward the daily calculations and enjoy the drama.

The description of the formula can be found here: http://www.ocblog.net/ocblog/2006/11/daucher_widens_.html#comments

[Publius2]

Nemesis-
Why are you even talking about numbers like 7000 or 9000 ballots left?
Wiskcol, a rather impartial observer, has said that the number is between 12,000 and 17,500.
Why not post estimates for plausible numbers, like 12,000, 15,000, and 17,500?
Would it be because Lou would only have to win 54-58% under those scenarios?
Finally, why do you think Lynn will stay at today's rate of 52% when her rate has dropped significantly each day?

[Mark Leyes]

Early VBMs (vote-by-mail) set the pace for overall election results. Usually, they set the order.

Later VBMs usually track the early VBMs. IF election day votes are significantly different from early VBMs (such as in SD34), late VBMs will fall somewhere between the two. This is due to several factors, including that early voters are not swayed by late attacks.

I think it is important to remember that Daucher was NEVER behind in the vote count. Yes, Correa made up a lot of ground in election day ballots, but the widening margin from later VBMs (trending for her just like the early batch) should auger in Daucher's favor.

I don't have a fancy mathematical formula for you, and I don't know how many ballots are left to count. But I have observed a lot of close elections (including a couple recounts) and the Dems are - shall we say - being overly optimistic (and that description is overly charitable).

[fuzzy math]

Paul Mitchell makes better hair products than he does political predictions.

There are still 100,000 absentee votes to be counted countywide, the large majority of which (over 70k) are election day absentees. It's impossible to say for certain how many of those will be in SD 34. The election day absentees will break for Correa just like election day polling place votes did.

There are also nearly 6,000 election day paper ballots and 22,000 provisional ballots. Those will break for Correa, too.

In other words, most of the universe of votes that trend Daucher have been counted. This ain't over by a longshot.

[reepforever]

Paul Mitchell is a liberal Democrat and we all know they assume every dollar or vote belongs to them and the government. It sounds like Lou Banas fuzzy math.

[Art Pedroza]

I agree with Mark Leyes - Correa is finished. Vaya con Dios Lou - I hear Seven Gables is hiring realtors. I'll put in a good word for you...

Congratulations to our next State Senator in the 34th - Lynn Daucher.

[Elroy El]

You guys (Art & Mark) crack me up. For several years you've been blasting Daucher as a RINO. Art, your animous was quite noticeable during the primary.

Now that she is one of the few bright spots in an otherwise dismal election day for republicans, both of you are trumpeting her praises as the next coming of Abraham Lincoln.

And that transcends to the statewides as well. Arnold has shown how quickly he can shorn his conservative advisors, and Steve Poizner is hardly a typical Lincoln Clubber.

So crow away at your successes. But those in the GOP circles who are successful and pushing a conservative agenda are those who realize the majority of people don't belong to either extreme.

[Jubal]

Elroy:

Actually, Art began supporting Daucher immediately after the primary -- since she was the nominee and he was being a good Republican soldier. So your criticism is off-the-mark.

[Art Pedroza]

Thank you Jubal. I did indeed support Daucher - after my friend Ron Garcia introduced me to her and her husband. Turns out they are terrific people and I am very happy for her. I look forward to working with Daucher.

Given what happended here in CA, where Daucher, Schwarzenegger, and Poizner were some of our only successes, I think it is time to take a look at our priorities and adapt whatever changes we need to in order to remain relevant.

I remain a conservative - but you can now place me in the pragmatic column.

I also learned in this cycle that we ought to run candidates even in the most Democrat areas. Our GOP candidates in Santa Ana did not win - but they broke up the Pulido machine. That is a victory in my book...

[Art flip/flops hoping to be Hispanic Rep. for Daucher!]

Art knows how to put his finger in the air and then suck up to the winners!

[DanC]

I think Lou is done; it only shows you can't take any race for granted.

[JozefColomy]

I think the more important thing to realize is that she will be caucusing with the Senate Republicans (all 15 others). This is why, despite the fact that I proabably agree more with a lot of the Democrats who won House seats than their Republican opponents, I still would rather have seen the Republicans win because the caucus will turn blue-dogs into lap-dogs for Madam Speaker, most likely. Let's hope, though, that a lot of these "independent thinkers" who were elected stay that way.

And Steve Poizner is perfectly conservative. Just because he is the most dynamic person, sans Arnold Schwarznegger, elected on Tuesday to a state-level position does not mean that he is non-deserving of our praises. He was the better candidate, by far, and will be a great Insurance Commisioner and future-governor for us.

[Mark Leyes]

I agreed early on (before filing for the primary) with Dick Ackerman that Lynn Daucher was a good fit for the 34th Senate District. Apparently, the voters agreed, as well.

I STILL disagree with some of Lynn's positions (we recently argued a bit over Measure M), but we AGREE more than not. She will doubtless vote WITH the caucus most of the time, not because she has to, but because she is a REPUBLICAN.

So, Elroy El - GET OVER IT! Republicans can win fair fights.

Oh, and thanks, Funk&Wagnalls, for this: "...the majority of people don't belong to either extreme..." DUH! If they did, the "extreme" would BE the "majority" ...

I think that Steve Rocco might be able to get you into a remedial english class in Orange Unified Adult Ed - Conspiracy Theory 101....

[Lou's catching up]

The last count on Sat. 11-11-06, 5:00 P.M. has Lynn leading by 764. Losing ground.

[Nemesis]

Today the Orange County Registrar of Voters counted 47,000 ballots in the county, 5,847 which were in the 34th Senate District. In this count, Correa added 2,958 votes and Daucher added 2,889. This means that Correa made up a bit of ground (69 votes) and now is behind by 764.

Daucher’s daily percentage of the vote has been diminishing over time. Thursday’s count was 56% Daucher, Friday’s was 52%, and today’s was 49%. While this percentage of the vote is trending away from her, it also means that Correa’s uphill battle continues to get steeper. He is losing time to make up ground, and the percentage he needs to get on all remaining ballots has increased.

The initial estimates for outstanding ballots (absentees and provisionals) in the 34th ranged from 7,000 - 12,000, and then up to 26,000. They counted 4,274 on Thursday, 5,622 on Friday and 5,847 Saturday, meaning that 15,743 ballots have been counted. That leaves as many as 10,000 remaining from the highest estimates.
How steep is Correa’s challenge? If there are only 5,000 ballots remaining, he needs to beat her by 16-points (58/46) among all remaining ballots to win. If there are 10,000 he needs to beat her by 8-points (54/46).

The Registrar is taking Sunday off, so the next report will be Monday night.

[SoCo Gal]

Nemesis:

Thanks for the cogent summary! Kudos also to the ROV for working on a holiday (how much overtime?) but I still wonder if a way can be found to expedite future counts.

[Elroy El]

Thank you Jubal. I did indeed support Daucher - after my friend Ron Garcia introduced me to her and her husband. Turns out they are terrific people and I am very happy for her. I look forward to working with Daucher.

Art. You admit you make uninformed decisions. Why didn't you reach out to the Dauchers prior to the primary when you firing full broadsides at her?

[Jubal]

Why didn't you reach out to the Dauchers prior to the primary when you firing full broadsides at her?

Probably because he was firing full broadsides at her. You kind of answered your own question.

[Dumb and dumber]

Martin Wisckol of OC Register posted a new post at Total Buzz today. The funny thing is Mike Levin calculated that Correa won 53 percent of today's count.

I begged a difference. Today Correa gained 2,958 votes, and Daucher gained 2,889 votes. The difference is 69 votes in favor of Correa. That means Correa received 50.6% of 5,847 counted votes for 34th SD.

I don't know how Levin calculated to 53% unless he "cooked" it up!
Thanks.
-------------------------------------
November 11, 2006
34th update: Momentum changes

LYNN DAUCHER (REP) 46926 50.4%
LOU CORREA (DEM) 46162 49.6%

For the first tally since Wednesday, Daucher has lost ground -- although she still leads by 764 votes. I just got home from seeing "Running With Scissors" (very good!) to find an optimistic phone message from Mike Levin, executive director with the OC Democratic Party. If you've been following the race on this blog, you know that Levin has been among those predicting this momentum change. His current mathematics conclude that Correa will have nearly caught up by the time Registrar of Voters Neal Kelley gets to the counting the provisional ballots.

-- Martin Wisckol

Levin calculated that Correa won 53 percent of today's count. He predicts that the final counting of absentee ballots will find Correa trailing by just 70 votes. After Election Day paper ballots are counted, he has Correa trailing by 35-40 votes. Then come the provisional ballots -- there are estimated to be 1,000-1,500 valid ones for the Senate District and according to most models, they would favor Correa.

Kelley has avoided predicting when the count would be concluded. But in listening to him explain the process, I think we may see everything but the provisionals finished in the coming week. The provisionals, however, are a more timely process and could take a week or two more to count. And if we end up with final count showing the two within 100 votes or so of each other, don't be surprised to see a recount.

With 694 write-ins cast on Election Day -- and unknown number cast absentee -- is there anybody out there now saying that decoy write-in Republican Otto Bade might not play a role in the outcome?

There have been a couple of comments from Brent suggesting the math is stacked against Correa. But I spoke last night with a Republican official closely involved with the race, and I'd be surprised if there isn't a bit more concern from Daucher's side after today's count.

-- Martin Wisckol

[Elroy El]

Probably because he was firing full broadsides at her. You kind of answered your own question.

So now I'm supposed to believe that all the issues he claimed were her shortcomings as a conservative all disappeared because she won an election?

Gimme a break. Maybe if he had reached out to her prior to firing full broadsides he wouldn't have fired full broadsides in the first place.

Like I said. He previous actions and statements about Lynn were based in ignorance and an unwillingness to be informed.

[fuzzy math]

OC Democrats' blog has an update on this topic:

http://www.ocdemocrats.org/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=153&Itemid=9

[fuzzy math]

Oops, forgot to make the link work

http://www.ocdemocrats.org/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=153&Itemid=9

[Jubal]

So now I'm supposed to believe that all the issues he claimed were her shortcomings as a conservative all disappeared because she won an election?

No -- and no one has asked you to believe that. Claudio Gallegos over at Orange Juice supported Tom Umberg over Lou Correa during the primary. Afterwards, hhe gave Correa his full, unwavering support. I don't see you busting Claudio's chops.