Daucher's Lead Shrinks A Little More To 302

Lou Correa gained a little bit of ground today, gnawing 59 votes off of Lynn Daucher's lead, which has shrunk a bit more to 302 votes.

Here's the customary Paul Mitchell analysis (brought to you by EdVoice):

Today’s Totals:

Daucher:     51,736     50.1%

Correa:       51,434     49.9%

Correa gained back 59 votes on Daucher, placing the gap at 302.  In today’s counting, he led her by a margin of 51.1% to 49.9%.  Correa needs to win the remaining ballots by a margin of 52/48 in order to prevail.  There are still 12,260 absentees outstanding county-wide.  Using previous counts, it can be assumed that this means there are 1,500 absentees to be counted in the 34th. The registrar has increased the likely number of Provisionals outstanding to 5-6,000 in the 34th, meaning that 25%+ of the provisionals were from this district, even though it is only 18% of the registration in the county, and about 14% of the votes on Election Day.  The registrar also suggested that only half of these 5-6,000 would ultimately count.  This is a much lower rate than in 2004 when only 16% of ballots were rejected.  Even though there are two wildly different ways of approximating the number of provisionals to be counted, both methods get you to about 2,500.  With a projected 1,500 absentees and 2,500 provisionals to count, it can be expected that we have 4,000 more votes to tally.

Today’s update is from absentees that had to be duplicated and re-run through the machines.  It can be presumed that they’ll get these all done by tomorrow, and start with the provisionals.  The Correa campaign has suggested all along that they will perform very well in the provisional ballots – something that is supported by previous elections.  If Correa wins the remaining provisionals and absentees by the same percentage as his election day counts, he will win by 62 votes.

Comments

[Andrew Davey]

My goodness, this is the race that will never end! Well, at least this is a bit of cheerful news to this "bleeding liberal heart". I knew that Correa wasn't out of the race when Daucher was ahead by 833 over the weekend... Perhaps, Daucher shouldn't prepare her return to Sacramento so soon!

[reepforever]

Shock and dismay...liberal Democrat Paul Mitchell is ready to throw our Republican Senator Lynn Daucher overboard. Next thing you know, Lou Banas will remember he was a Democrat.

Mitchell, who has previously predicted that Lynn would win, now offers that Correa could win by 62 votes. As I have said before, Mitchell's a liberal who was with Lynn win or tie.

Mitchell is doing just what Democrats want to do in Iraq--cut and run.

We're Republicans and we don't do that. We keep the faith and pray that Lynn wins in spite of that traitor Otto Bade.

[tylerh]

Mitchell is doing just what Democrats want to do in Iraq--cut and run.

1. Ending the bleeding in Iraq isn't just the positiion of many (but not all) Democrats, it also happend to the opinion of a substantial majority of Americans, including a growing number of Republicans.

2. Reagan wisely pulled the Marine's from Lebanon, so the "shoot-and-scoot" crowd has plenty of good company.

3. Marines are taught to either attack or retreat: staying pinned down is the worst of all possible situations. It's been a long time since the US was on the offensive in Iraq -- we've largely given up daylight patrols in Anbar province -- so adhering to Marine Corps doctrine seems like a better idea than "Stay and Pray."

But I think we're supposed to be discussing the Daucher/Correa race, which happily is being fought by ballots instead of bullets.