Daucher Widens Her Lead To 553

A reader e-mailed to let me know Lynn Daucher has increased her lead to 553 votes.

Looks like those theorists who theorized the late absentees would mirror the trend of the earlier absentees are proving correct.

Still, the number of uncounted absentees (up to 7,000) makes me wish I were a mathematician able to render some sort of scientific prediction.

Comments

[Nemisis]

Here is the math. I don’t know the breakdown of voting behavior for absentees vs. day-of-election voters, or how provisional ballots are going to play out. However, the following does suggest that Correa will have to do some heavy lifting to make up his current 533 vote deficit.

Presumption: There are 7,000 outstanding ballots (provisional and absentee)

x = percentage of remaining ballots Daucher needs to maintain a tie

(x)7,000+41,086=(1-x)7,000+40,533
==> 7,000x+41,086=(1-x)7,000+40,533
==> 7,000x+41,086=7,000-7,000x+40,533
==> 7,000x+7,000x=7,000+40,533-41,086
==> 14,000x=5,727
==> x=5,727/14,000
==> x=40.9

So, Daucher needs to hold 40.9% of remaining ballots, plus one vote in order to win, while Correa needs 59.1%, plus one vote, to win.

For reference, in the post-election ballot counting, Daucher has gained 2,407 votes to Correa’s 1,867. She is at 77.6% in this late counting, and Correa has been at 22.3%. This could mean that these late ballots are amazingly more pro-Daucher, or it could just point to the crazy variability of these late counts. Either way, Correa better break this trend quick or it’s goodnight.

[Nemesis]

Read the post with all the math in it below first, but here's a different base presumption:

Presumption: there are 28,000 outstanding ballots (as reported in the LA Times on 11/9/06)

Correa would have to win 52.2% to Daucher's 47.7 in order to tie. This would be much more acheivable, even though it is extremely inconsistent with the last two days of counting.

[Frank Finn]

You guys who can do math are awesome. I always tell everyone "if I could do math, I would be an unemployed aeronautical engineer, not a cop”. On another note, HAPPY 231ST BIRTHDAY MARINES.
Semper Fi,
Frank Finn

[OCNative]

Umm...that's 553, according to the Registrar of Voters.

[Art Pedroza]

I have also heard that the remaining votes are more likely to favor Daucher. I believe she is headed for a victory.

As for Barbara, maybe he is looking to pick up some business for his law firm, at his party's expense. Who knows? He is not being rational.

Correa should just admit defeat and start looking for a real job.

[redperegrine]

"Correa should just admit defeat and start looking for a real job"

Um, I think he's a County Supervisor, although that may not be considered a "real job" in some circles.

[Jubal]

Umm...that's 553

Doh! Thanks for catching the error.

[Nemisis]

While my posting caught the "533" virus, the raw numbers in the calculation were striaght off the Registrar's page, and therefore had the proper 553 gap.

"unemployed aeronautical engineer?" Thanks for the compliment, but unfortunately I actually have to work...