Daucher Closes Strong

Four - count 'em, FOUR - Daucher mailers arrived at Stately Leyes Manor on Monday, the last mail day of the Fall campaign. For a solid month, we have received at least one Daucher mailer almost every day, most days multiple mailers. ZERO Correa mail. And a tidy little closer, too, the much-anticipated Schwarzenegger robo-call that apparently went wide to all(?) Republican households. Any Democrats?

Now that it is all over but the shouting (and recounts and lawsuits), the strategy for each side is crystal clear. Daucher started mailing before the primary and never let up, establishing herself in the hearts and minds (or mailboxes, anyway) of voters as our de facto Assembly representative. She was ubiquitous and effective hitting on a variety of issues important to the district. She also targeted sub-universes including Vietnamese, Latino, Women, Independents, etc. She had lots of signs and several TV ads. Although there were some Independent Expenditures (IE's), most notably from the California Republican Party, most of the media came disclaimed from Daucher for Senate, which means that the money, the media and the message, all ran through her campaign. She scores high on accountability.

Correa's campaign was different. After a bitter primary, Correa's campaign seemed to stall, and much of his campaign cash wound up coming from third-party interests, including the California Democratic Party, police union PACs, at least one state Real Estate PAC and Californians United, a big player in the primary with several hit pieces against Tom Umberg (you remember, Correa's primary challenger). The IE's finally came in hot and heavy, with mail, radio ads, TV ads and several different versions of signs.

Correa's campaign focused heavily on Democrats, important after the split primary and a late start afterward. The effort seemed to try to reinforce his image and bolster party loyalty. Even his latest yard signs said "a different kind of Democrat that won't raise taxes!" (nice of them to concede that typical Democrats DO raise taxes). Daucher did not concede the Democrat vote (she mailed heavily to Dems, too), and with party registration nearly equal and Schwarzenegger at the top of the ticket, this part of Correa's strategy was important.

The third prong of the Correa effort was the most innovative and most troubling. The sneak-attack Otto Bade "Republican" write-in campaign - financed by the Correa-friendly Californians United PAC - was an attempt to bleed Republican votes away from Daucher. Whether Bade receives 10 votes or 10 PERCENT of the votes, they will ALL be siphoned from Daucher.

Bade is a Latino, and theoretically a threat to Correa's base, but the campaign was targeted exclusively at Republicans. Call it (charitably) Divide-and-Conquer or call it a Nixonian-caliber RAT-FINK (cleaned up for the faint of heart), it comes off as a desperate and dirty trick. If Correa wins by a margin that is less than the percentage of votes received by Bade, then the strategy will have paid off.

Polling from both sides showed this race close. Don't be surprised if talk of Recount starts before the sun rises on Wednesday.

Comments

[Anon]

I think the Bade strategy isn't necessarily to pull votes but to depress votes. There are Reps. who won't vote for a pro-choice Rep. especially one who voted to give in state tuition to illegals. They will take a walk on that office. Granted, they are a distinct minority but you are right whether it is 10 or 100, this race may turn on it.

[Ryan Gene]

Good luck, Lynn!

[Layoff Mark---]

Mark-

You are assigning way too much credit to Correa...

Look at the "Lynn-Haters" for crediut on this one.

[Publius2]

Why would the Correa campaign waste money sending mail to the Leyes household?
A good move on their part, I'd say.