Closing The Coffin: Correa's Lead Expands To 821 Votes

It feels anti-climactic, but I suppose I ought to post the OC Registrar's tally from yesterday's counting:

Lou Correa              55,234       50.0%
Lynn Daucher           54,413       49.2%
Otto Bade                    899       0.8%

Correa has now expanded his lead to 821 votes. By the time all is said and done, Lou Correa's margin may well exceed the number of votes garnered by Trojan Horse write-in Otto Bade.

Truth be told, it's unlikely we'll ever know for sure if Otto Bade cost Lynn Daucher victory in this race. That would involve knowing that each and every person who voted for Otto Bade would otherwise have cast his or her ballot for Lynn Daucher -- something that is impossible to know. I have no doubt the majority of Bade voters would have otherwise voted for Daucher. Daucher campaigned as an education conservative, and that is how GOP voters in the 34th SD. The Californians United/Otto Bade campaign was able to do what Lou Correa couldn't -- attack Lynn Daucher from the right and cost her conservative votes.

Which is why it is hard to calculate the impact of the Californians United assault solely via the number of write-in Bade received. Four district-wide mailers plus phone banks to pro-life and 2nd Amendment voters painting Daucher as pro-choice and anti-gun certainly caused a number of GOP voters to either skip that race altogether or vote AIP or Libertarian. Combined with the 899 votes Bade actually received and one can make a strong case the Bruce Young's evil plan cost Daucher the Senate race.

Alas, we'll never know for sure. There was nothing illegal about Otto Bade's candidacy. The law doesn't -- and shouldn't -- prohibit a citizen from launching a candidacy for petty, selfish reasons, or even from being dishonest in representing his or her reasons to the voters.

But I think it should disqualify him from consideration fro any public office. And he ought to be vigorously and overwhelmingly opposed should he ever place name on a ballot again.

Comments

[Mike Lawson]

I'm glad you're not taking the Ackerman sore-loser road, and trying to make people think that the Bade thing was some illegal ploy orchestrated by Correa in the final hours of this very close campaign.

I think that we both agree that it was a dirty trick employed by the PAC, and I'll throw my support behind any non-Otto candidate should he ever try to run for office in a district in which I live.

I just posted my take on the Bade nonsense over at TheLiberalOC.com.

[Republicans Otto know better!]

The battle for this seat was an all out war from the beginning and I don't think anyone is really surprised that the Dem.'s pulled out all the stops including the use of Benedict Bade. This is a big victory for Lou. He will now be the odds on favorite for Loretta’s seat should she ever decide to not run for her Congressional seat (Can you imagine how much $$$ Lou will be able to raise in the next 8 years in the State Senate?) and he can always run for County Supervisor again if he decides after 8 years he wants to move back to the O.C. It’s good to be Lou!

[One Who Knows]

"He will now be the odds on favorite for Loretta’s seat should she ever decide to not run for her Congressional seat (Can you imagine how much $$$ Lou will be able to raise in the next 8 years in the State Senate?)"

The answer is ZERO Dollars for use in a Congressional campaign unless he opens a Federal account and refuses all corporate or union money.

The Federal Election Commission no longer allows one to transfer funds from a state committee to a federal committee.

[Andrew Davey]

Thank you, Jubal, for not whining and screaming "Foul!" over what is likely to be a Correa win here. Of course, I must agree with you and Mike that the Sacramento Dems did a sleazy act by convincing Otto Bade to run as the "Independent Republican/ Conservative". While their Californians United trick wasn't illegal, it was definitely unethical... And if anything, THEY HURT LOU CORREA here! They tarnished his image by inviting folks to alege that Lou was involved with their foul play (and he clearly wasn't)!

While I'm glad to see that Lou will be my next State Senator, I hope that the Sac-town Dems don't try to "help" him again with their dirty tricks! Let us help our own candidates here in OC... We actually live here in the community, and we know how to reach out to our neighbors!

[Not on my team]

Perhaps if Don and Lynn had focused on her race in the new neighborhood instead of spending so much time and money back in the old hood against Steve Vargas she might have won. They tried to deny him the party endorsement and then paid for a mailer and paid to have it hand delivered city-wide as a last-minute hit piece. I wonder if that effort and expense might have made a difference in her foray into the new district?

She will bitch and moan about Otto not playing on the team, but she has never been on the Republican team and certainly did not play on the team this time. Consistency is the hallmark of an intelligent and clear thinker. She is neither.

[Ironic isn't it!]

I listen to the Daucher partisans complaining about the write-in campaign and have to laugh. These people have no sense of irony.

Six years ago Daucher got into the general election (I won't say she won the primary) by crossing party lines and telling a different story to each party's voters in the primary. To the Reps she said she was the only reliable conservative and to the Dems she portrayed herself as the necessary alternative to a right wing extremist. And now some want to complain about a write in effort that told the truth to her base about her liberal votes? I see no duplicity or dishonesty in that effort. For an example of duplicity and dishonesty, see the 2000 primary.

Otto did the heavy lifting for the genuine conservatives that are the heart and soul of this party. After these RINOs get over it, the real Republicans will be thanking Otto.

[Ironic isn't it!]

Correa's victory and Daucher's defeat will result in a rise in the average level of respect for private property rights in each party caucus in Sacramento. On balance, that is a very good thing if you believe in private property rights. With Duvall joining the Republican Caucus next month we will have a unified team that will work together for the first time in six years.

Go Republicans!!!

[Publius2]

I actually agree with 95% of Jubal's assessment (SURPRISNGLY!).
Except for the part about GOP voters skipping that race or voting AIP or Libertarian. As far as I can see there were no candidates of either party on the ballot. The Bade candidacy gave these voters a place to go.

[Dump Bruce Matthias]

Ionic isn't it! = Bruce Matthais.

[clprevatt]

Excellent thoughts Matt. From time to time we can agree on stuff, and this is one of those. Politics is a blood sport, and sneaky tactics are common. Like Mike Lawson, I was disappointed that Otto Bade was backed by the same people who backed Correa. It didn't look good, and I also thin, in fact I know, that some conservative Democrats wrote in Otto Bade.

I walked a precinct for Lou and found one Democrat that was planning to vote for Bade because of his anti-abortion stance. To quote the voter, "I just cannot vote for someone who supports abortion."

Anyway, thanks for taking a reasoned approach in you analysis.

[Correa vs Ryan Gene Williams in 2010!]

Are you Democrats so cocky that you can’t see that everything is going exactly as we planned? We never thought Daucher could beat Correa! This was just designed to soften him up for 2010 when Ryan Gene Williams will beat him in a landslide victory! I probably shouldn’t reveal our strategy but that’s exactly what we have had planned all along. We knew that Ryan couldn’t win the 69th Assembly district race this year but it helped build name I.D. for his run against Correa for Senate in four years. I don’t want to give too much away but we are planning on having Art Pedroza run Ryan's campaign again(this is so secret that Art himself does not know about this until now). Ryan will be 24 years old then, out of college, and ready to whip Lou's tail. So look out Lou Correa, we have your number!

[reepforever]

Dick Ackerman wants an investigation of the Otto Bade campaign. Before he does that, perhaps he should explain money routed through the Monterey County Republican Party.

The Monterey County Party sent $175,000 and $98,000 to Orange County for Lynn Daucher's campaign. If investigators trace the money that went into the Monterey County to contributors that were directed by Dick Ackerman, isn't that laundering since its ultimate destination was the Daucher campaign?

People who live in glass houses shouldn't throw stones.

[Elroy El]

Ackerman wants an investigation. To what end? The only ones who benefit are the attorneys salivating at all those billable hours.

At the end of all that jurisprudence will the words Senator Lou Correa be spoken. For eight more years. And then he comes back and runs for the BoS again for another six.

[OCNative]

The lead for Correa is now 1070. Bade has 907.

According to the Registrar of Voters' November 20 update:

LOU CORREA (DEM) 55783 50.1%
LYNN DAUCHER (REP) 54713 49.1%
OTTO BADE 907 0.8%

[I'm naming my baby boy Otto!]

Years from now when groups of young boys named "Otto" enter school, only their Dem parents will remember why:)

[reepforever]

The Correa people are now proudly pointing out that Otto Bade wasn't the difference.

However, if you add most of the Bade votes to Daucher's total, there would have been a recount.

Then we would have made sure every vote counted....only once.

[Elroy El]

However, if you add most of the Bade votes to Daucher's total, there would have been a recount.

The difference in this race is now 1302 votes. Bade has received a total of 910. A recount would've only reaffirmed the obvious.