The Crystal Ball: It's Winner-Take-All In An OC Supervisor Special Election

I received this e-mail from the astute and ever-observant Dana Reed the other day regarding OC Blog's posts on the potential special election to fill Lou Correa's Supervisorial seat:

Hi:

I'm back from a week at Wimbledon and am working my way through various e-mails and OC Blog posts which I missed while I was gone.

One post, dealing with a potential vacancy in the 1st Supervisorial District ends with this  quote:

"The candidate would also need to expend at least $200,000 to make it past the primary, or maybe a little less, if the field is truly crowded."

The problem is I don't think the OC Charter provides for a primary (or runoff) in a special election to fill a vacancy for Supervisor.  It appears to be "winner-take-all."

That should change everyone's analysis.

No?

Also, special elections in OC (and there have been many) seem to hover around the 20% turnout level.  Accordingly, with lots of candidates on the ballot, literally anybody could win so long as they have the machinery to turn out their voters.

Dana

Dana raises excellent points (in addition to making me jealous of his vacation). I checked the OC Registrar website for the results of the last county special election -- the January 28, 2003 special election to fill Todd Spitzer's supervisor seat after he was elected to the Assembly. Since the timing of a 1st Supervisor District special election would be virtually the same, I thought the results of that election might provide some insights.

Bill Campbell, of course, won that special election. 35,646 voters cast ballots -- a paltry 12.9% turnout.  8.8% of that was absentee voters, and the remaining 4.1% were polling place voters.

Campbell's lack of serious opposition meant a less-than-exciting campaign, which probably contributed to the abysmal turnout.

A special election to succeed to Correa on the Board of Supervisors will certainly entice a number of serious candidates to duke it out and generate more excitement among voters.

There are 201,493 registered voters in the 1st Supervisor District. If we assume a 20% voter turnout, that's 40,298 voters casting ballots in a January 2007 special election.

Keeping in mind there is no primary -- whoever wins a plurality is elected supervisor -- Dana Reed's analysis is right on: this could be any body's race provided they have sufficient funds to communicate with this relatively small universe of voters and an effective GOTV effort.

While the OC Republican Party voter reg drive (for all its problems) has dramatically narrowed the partisan registration gap, my gut instinct is this environment still favors a Democrat -- assuming they can unite behind a single candidate -- with heavy labor support.

Still, a 1st SD special election -- assuming there is one -- is still more than 6 months away. Anything can happen in the interim.

Comments

And you would be correct. There is no primary in the Charter. A plurality takes it. Soooo....a couple of GOP's like Bustamante, Nguyen, and others jump in and split the vote. And a dem could take it with less than 5000 votes.

[Art Pedroza]

My sources tell me that Dunn is going to run for this seat. If he does, the seat will be is.

To use a baseball analogy, Dunn is the NY Yankees compared to minor league candidates like Bustamante and Nguyen. Yes, he lost his latest campaign, for statewide office, but I don't see him faltering in central O.C.

I am no fan of Dunn and his trial lawyer buddies, but I just cannot think of any Republican who could even hope to compete with him. That is too bad.

[Thanks Measure V]

The purpose of changing the county to a charter was done to ensure Campbell and Spitzer could do a job swap. The fear at the time was a Dem Governor would appoint someone not in favor with the local establishment. The plan worked and Todd and Bill have skated into easy re-election campaigns. Now that a GOP is Governor there is a real possibility that another Dem will hold that seat. Unless something can be done to undo the charter provisions required by Measure V allowing the old process to be reinstated.

[Bladerunner]

I posted on the what goes around comes around result of Measure V some time ago. I guess I shouldn't be surprised that some folks want to change the election rules every time it suits their interests.

[Will the real Bladerunner please stand up]

Could you be Mike Farber???

is it even a secret anymore that bladerunner is george urch?

Unfortunately, Art looks correct on this one. Add to his comments about Dunn and his money is the fact that the GOP 'frontrunner' Bustamante looks like he's out for himself more than any GOP ideals. Why would he back Daucher and immediately declare himself a candidate for Sup? Doesn't his strong endorsement put her over Correa? Or will his towing the democrat Pulido line come back to bite him? This is Dunn's seat if he wants it.

[George Urch is a nice guy!]

I guess it could be George. He's a great guy.