Not long after publishing my earlier post about possible candidates for the 1st Supervisor District should Lou Correa be elected to the Senate, I received an e-mail from Westminster Councilman Kermit Marsh:
I am NOT running for supervisor. Nor do I think the 34th Senatorial is a foregone conclusion. I expect that race to be close.
I guess we can scratch Kermit off the list.
Martin Wisckol over at Total Buzz was kind enough to link to my earlier post, and waxed quizzical as to why I left Santa Ana Councilwoman Claudia Alvarez, Armando De La Libertad and OC Clerk-Recorder Tom Daly off the list.
Why? Mainly because I felt the post was already long enough, but here's my assessment of this trio vis-a-vis the 1st SD.
Claudia Alvarez: She narrowly lost the 69th AD primary in 2004 to the former incumbent, Tom Umberg. In that race, she garnered 8,145 votes for 48.9%. Ordinarily, such a strong showing would have made Alvarez the front-runner for the same seat two years later. Instead 4,387 votes for 31.8% of the vote.
That's a serious hemorrhage of support in only two years. After two bitter primary defeats, Alvarez has managed to make herself less popular. There's little reason to think Alvarez can be competitive in an expensive county race in which there is no reason to participate for business interests that supported her Assembly race with IEs -- plus there will be a newly-minted Assemblyman Jose Solorio in a position to raise money for anti-Alvarez for Supervisor IEs.
It helps to remember there are many more voters to contact in a county supervisor race than in an Assembly primary -- at least in central Orange County. 62,381 voters cast ballots in the March 2004 1st SD primary, versus 16,655 in the Umberg/Alvarez primary. In November 2004, 114,197 voters cast ballots in the Correa/Broadwater run-off, as opposed to 62,797 in the 69th AD general election.
Armando De La Libertad: He strikes me as a bright guy who will have a bright future if he sets his sites a little lower and runs for Santa Ana City Council or School Board. He showed an impressive ability to raise a significant amount of money -- $115,000 -- mainly from small donors. But it's tougher nowadays than it used to be to make the leap to county supervisor or the legislature without already being elected to local government.
Tom Daly: He would make a very formidable candidate for this seat. He served as Anaheim Councilman and Mayor for a combined 14 years, and even though he's a Democrat, Tom had a maddening (from the OC GOP's point-of-view) talent to attracting significant Republican support. That would be a plus in a district that is not as Democratic as it was even two years ago.
Tom has been talked up as a candidate for the BOS for years, but he's never really gone further than publicly mulling the possibility. Daly has a countywide office as a ballot title, and he's continued to build on his predecessor's efforts to make the Clerk-Recorder's office a model of efficiency and innovation -- so he'd have a good record to run on. But, like Art Pedroza, it's my impression Tom doesn't live in the 1st SD.
Did you say Armando? Please. He's the perpetual candidate. He ganered a whopping 15.9% of the vote for his $115K.
He should not run.....ever.
Posted by: art | June 27, 2006 at 08:51 AM
Kermit Marsh forgot to tell you the real reason he is not running is because his wife did not give him permission to do so. Also, he is part of the ethically challenged OCGOP Executive Committee and therefore would not garner any support from his former friend, Tim Whitacre, who stood by him the first time Marsh ran unsuccessfully for the 1st. If Tim's not in his corner, others in Central O.C. will not be as well.
Posted by: More Reasons | June 27, 2006 at 11:16 AM
Uh yeah -- I'm sure that's exactly the case.
Posted by: WWTD - What Would Tim Do? | June 27, 2006 at 11:48 AM
I have heard a lot of rumbling about Carlos Bustamante...
Posted by: Bustamante? | June 27, 2006 at 01:33 PM
The rumbling you've been hearing is from Bustamante, who would have been a lock to get appointed to fill the vacancy by Arnold, assuming Arnold beeats the tax man. Except, the GOP didn't want Gray Davis to appoint Joe Kerr or some other Dem to Todd's seat and came up with Measure V. No more appointments.
Now Measure V will most likely ensure that a Democrat wins this seat, Bustamante's hard work and purported endorsement by Pulido notwithstanding. What the Lord giveth, the Lord taketh away.
Posted by: Bladerunner | June 27, 2006 at 02:20 PM
Dunn "has the character above reproach"?
Don't get me wrong, I like Joe, but I think you'd better double-check with folks in Sacramento on that point.
Posted by: | June 28, 2006 at 08:27 AM
Anon @8:12am---- Bravely written. Most likely a GOP scud since Dunn's folks don't believe that and have too much class to post it even if they did.
Posted by: Bladerunner | June 28, 2006 at 09:50 AM