John Seiler On Why Harman Won

OCR senior editorialist blogged an interesting post to Orange Punch regarding the outcome of the 35th Senate District special election:

Why Harman won -- despite being outspent

By: John Seiler

Martin Wisckol today reports that Harkey spent $33 per vote to Harman's $21 per vote in last week's state Senate race. Yet Harman won. Why?

Well, I'm in that district and I got about 5 Harman mail pieces but only one from Harkey. That may be because I'm "decline to state" and not a Republican, as are most people in the district.

You can read the rest here.

Comments

[Dwight Robinson]

If this is true, obviously the Harkey campaign missed a terrific opportunity to reach this critical group.

I think stating that "most people in the district" are "decline-to-state" is a bit of an exageration though.

[Jeff Flint]

I think Seiler meant most people are not Republican, although still not technically accurate...at least I thought GOP registration in that district is over 50%. Not going to take the time to look, however. The point is still made.

[Tony Bedolla]

I do not know which public safety unions endorsed Tom Harman.

However, both Tom Harman and Diane Harkey interviewed with the OCPFA to request an endorsement.

We stayed neutral in this race.

If anyone has mail pieces from either candidate touting our endorsement please contact me at the address I have enclosed.

[reality check]

Dwight-

The Editor's comment is accurate. There is a trend seen growing expnentially esp. in the areas of Central & North County --- voters loyal to the Party (R or D) who become either disgusted or apathetic due to the literal pounds of mail deluged upon them by candidates.

One extension of a topic recently written about related to the Voter Reg scandal of GOP is this trend amongst Dems in vicinity of 69 Assembly & 34th Senate areas...specifically, thanks to the 2004 Umberg-Alvarez Dem race in that area (boosted by Union IEs)reputed to deposit literally more than 1 lb. = 16 oz. of EXTRA mail per day to each household, people are turned off.

My point is, have Reep's really taken back a majority voter registration position OR have Dems gone DTS??? Obviously, Dems went DTS. And Guillard was playing from a 1998-2000 playbook (way out of touch with Realpolitik of OC...
But don't knock just Guillard --- share the blame with Jimmy Camp that all Repub candidates have consultants that play from the same playbook. Mail to Conservative base in an Absentee Chase.

That last part is the rub though....true Conservatives that made OC famous are either dead, broke or moved to Idaho after they retired. There are damn few left in OC except along the Coast or in the vicinity of The El Toro Y.

Harman got some Union support & from the Indians who followed the model of mailing to likely voters Regardless of party affiliations DTS.

Harkey did not lose to Harman...she lost to Apathy and Ignorance - voters who did not care OR did not know there was an election going on thta day in early April.

Thus EVERYTHING that indicated what some claimed would be a 20 point victory came down to 236 votes.

[Shawn Fago]

Harman has not won anything yet.

[redperegrine]

"Harman has not won anything yet."

This must be true because Jubal has not yet awarded the OCBlog mug.