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April 11, 2006



Hmm...Harkey picked up about 260 votes.


Hopefully the other 645 precincts got a clue and voted for Harkey.

Harman Wins

Harkey had too many dopes blowing smoke up her ass -- Anna Bryson??? Give me a break. Go back to the city council, Diane, you should have kept your $$ for your daughter's inheritance. Hah Hah Hah.


Nope, she picked up 60. But that is only 10% of precincts. Will be interesting to see next set of numbers.


It would help to know where these precincts were. If they were Huntington Beach, for example, that would really mean something.

Harman Wins

Check out the Registrar's web site -- Harman is taking all the precints, for the most part. The trend is sticking. Harkey loses -- let this be a lesson to the idiot GOP.


"Harman Wins" is right. If you look at the results precinct by precinct so far, Harman is wining a high percentage of each of them, (usually 4 of 5 and sometimes 3 of 5) by a small margin everytime -- and that could be the trend. With Dana Point so small, unlikely for a big vote turnaround here, though could be closer than absentee analysis.

Reality Check

Prediction: Less than 700 voters turn out in all Dana Point Precincts.

Everybody went surfing to catch the rising storm swell...


Race is tightening -- now Harman just has 439 votes with 279 precincts of 723. This will be a close one after all, Harman will likely count on late absentee ballots to assure a close win.

Down to a 439 vote difference after beginning the night 672 down. If the trend holds true for the race (assuming no major regional variations) Harkey wins this by about 380 votes in the end.


I don't think so. I think if trend continues Harman finishes the evening about 50 votes ahead and then the late absentee will decide race.

What are your assumptions?

I figured 65% absentee and 35% election day. Taking the Registrar's numbers of 12.3% absentee and 1.9% election day (late absentees are the same) so far, then run the numbers to achieve the 65-35 ratio, then Diane wins by a little under 400. You're free to disagree, but I have been doing this for over 20 years...


Here is the assumption: Harkey picks up about 180 votes every 200 precincts. There are 444 precincts left. That means if trend is there she picks up about 366 more votes. Harman is now ahead by 439. That means at nights end he is ahead by roughly 50 votes, give or take a handful. Late absentees will decide race, and Harman has the slight advantage there. If trends hold, Harman wins a squeeker. Too bad Diane didn't spend more.

Reality Check

Do re-counts actually exist anymore since the machines were introduced???


My math above isn't exact but it still works out to Harman ahead slightly, about 50 votes.


Reality =-- this was a paper ballot election.


Harman just broke the trend slightly at 12:30 am. With 5/7s of vote in, he leads 494 and increased his votes from last count about 60 votes. It will be close but he will definitely win.

guarantee you dems are doing the water carrying for harman. maybe if harkey didnt come out and paint harman as such a l a bunch of my democratic friends wouldn't have voted for harman today. god i love open primaries

Dave Swanson

There are still numerous other factors, but Harman breaking the trend here isn't a good sign for Harkey...but it's definately a setback for the Harkey camp.

Stay tuned tomorrow...even after 100% of the precincts have reported, if the margin is within 250, it could still go Harkey's way...

remember when that gore guy wanted to do a recount even though he won? what were all you guys saying back then... weird..

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