Fleischman has a very valuable post up on recent polling done by the Harman campaign with the memo attached, showing name ID is still a major hurdle for Harkey. This would corroborate what was posted by Allan Bartlett over on Powder Blue Report just over a week ago (the fact that polling was done, by the Tarrance Group, not its results and evaluation). All those Bartlett haters must concede his integrity on this matter.
A meaty exerpt of Flash's post:
This survey of 459 registered "likely" voters was taken on February 19-20.
The ballot test:
TOM HARMAN: 37%
LARRY CABALLERO: 23% (Dem)
DIANE HARKEY: 16%
UNDECIDED: 20%
Name identification:
HARMAN: 76% of voters know who he is with 39% having a favorable impression and 14% having an unfavorable impression.
HARKEY: 39% know her, and they say "three out of four have either never heard of her, or have no specific impression of her.
Now, these numbers are pretty strong for Harman. We'll be looking for some critique of the attached memo from fellow FR Contributor Adam Probolsky, who is himself a pollster. If for no other reason, I expect Probolsky to assail these numbers as he has been retained by Harkey.
Sorry, no crosstabs in the memo. This survey could be entirely useless if a disproportionate number of respondents came from Huntington Beach, Tom Harman's base of operations, where he has served in a public capacity for over a decade.
Does anyone know when this survey was taken. Was it before Harkey started hammering old Tom?
Posted by: Date? | February 28, 2006 at 04:37 PM
Nonsense...nobody in Balboa has ever heard of Harman. He has zero name ID compared to Harkey who sends me mail every 5th day.
Posted by: 92661 | February 28, 2006 at 04:39 PM
Thank you for the kind words Silence. The phrasing of the questions would also explain the results. All I did was post my experience with the pollster. I wasn't out to create news for all my critics out there. Maybe Duane Dichiara could release the actual transcript of the questions to further validate my post. Incredible.
Powder Blue Report
Posted by: Allan Bartlett | February 28, 2006 at 04:48 PM
Does anyone know when this survey was taken.>Posted by: Date?
As stated in the post: This survey ... was taken on February 19-20
Posted by: Logical | February 28, 2006 at 05:02 PM
I am a self-described Bartlett Hater but I wouldn't question his integrity. I am sure he was polled. I just find him highly annoying.
Posted by: Mark Brainard | February 28, 2006 at 06:34 PM
Why is it, when I look at the Harkey campaign, I think of the Japanese fleet on the way to Midway?
Posted by: Historian | February 28, 2006 at 09:19 PM
You know Mr. Brainard- I agree that Bartlett can be somewhat annoying, but I do give him credit for sticking to his principles. And just like me, he has a lovely wife.
Posted by: Phil Paule | February 28, 2006 at 10:20 PM
"Nonsense...nobody in Balboa has ever heard of Harman. He has zero name ID compared to Harkey"
Nonsense...nobody in HB has ever heard of Harkey. She has zero name ID compared to Harman who has been a favorite member of the assembly
Posted by: Hanna | February 28, 2006 at 10:25 PM
I have talked to several of my relatives in HB Hanna, and they all recieved literature from Harkey, and one of them actually talked to one of her volunteers a few weeks ago during a precinct walk. There's still 6 weeks left in this campaign, and I have yet to even hear a word from Harman in my mailbox, or at my doorstep...
Posted by: Dave Swanson | March 01, 2006 at 12:14 AM
i hope this poll will serve as a humble reminder to all you bloggers.....NOBODY THAT VOTES ACTUALLY READS THIS STUFF....espically on OC "Harkey" Blog
Posted by: www.ocharkeyblog.net | March 01, 2006 at 07:25 AM
". This survey could be entirely useless if a disproportionate number of respondents came from Huntington Beach,"
....well of couse the poll will have a lot of Huntington Beach people.....thats where most of the people live in this district. It is the largest city in SD 35 by far!
Posted by: | March 01, 2006 at 07:31 AM
Hanna: "Harman who has been a favorite member of the assembly."
Note: Harman is the only member of the assembly from Huntington Beach.
Everyone knows he's just a seat warmer for six years.
Posted by: Johnny Slash | March 01, 2006 at 08:48 AM
Did anyone see the cover of today's Register about Republican's switching registration for would be Democrats? It appears that whoever was involved was simply concerned about the quantity of Republican as opposed to having members who are ideoligically pure.
Now that there are some "Republicans" who have Democrat leanings that will now be able to vote in a Republican party. this could really throw things for a loop.
Posted by: Rex Ricks | March 01, 2006 at 09:23 AM
Folks...This race will be determined at the polls not by a poll. He who drives their base and supporters to vote absentee or in personam will be Senator. Don't start counting till 8:00 p.m. on April 11. As for me and mine, we support, are working for, and believe Diane will win this race.
Posted by: Jerry Amante | March 01, 2006 at 04:09 PM