November 08, 2005

Polling Stays Negative

Probably the last pass at polling for today's elections from Real Clear Politics.  Survey USA and Stanford are out with numbers:

2005 California Special Election
Election Date: November 8, 2005

News Stories

Proposition 73: Parental Notification
• Termination of Minor's Pregnancy. Waiting Period and Parental Notification. Initiative Constitutional Amendment.

Poll
YES
NO
Und
Spread
51%
47%
2%
YES +4
44%
56%
N/A
NO +12
43%
54%
3%
NO +11
55%
44%
2%
YES +11
51%
39%
10%
YES +12
41%
49%
10%
NO +8
58%
42%
N/A
YES +16
43%
53%
5%
NO +10
45%
43%
12%
YES +2
42%
48%
10%
NO +6
60%
38%
2%
YES +22
59%
39%
2%
YES +20
45%
45%
10%
Even
44%
48%
8%
NO +4
48%
43%
9%
YES +5

Proposition 74: Public School Teachers Tenure
• Public School Teachers. Waiting Period for Permanent Status. Dismissal. Initiative Statute

Poll
YES
NO
Und
Spread
48%
51%
1%
NO +3
46%
54%
N/A
NO +8
45%
52%
3%
NO +7
49%
50%
2%
NO +1
45%
47%
8%
NO +2
44%
50%
6%
NO +6
53%
47%
N/A
YES +6
42%
53%
5%
NO +11
44%
47%
9%
NO +3
46%
48%
6%
NO +2
53%
45%
1%
YES +8
55%
44%
2%
YES +10
43%
47%
10%
NO +4
46%
37%
17%
YES +9
49%
42%
9%
YES +7
61%
32%
7%
YES +29

Proposition 75: Union Dues -- Political Contributions
• Public Employee Union Dues. Required Employee Consent for Political Contributions. Initiative Statute.

Poll
YES
NO
Und
Spread
45%
54%
1%
NO +9
52%
47%
N/A
YES +5
48%
49%
3%
NO +1
50%
49%
2%
YES +1
40%
51%
9%
NO +11
40%
50%
10%
NO +10
64%
36%
N/A
YES +28
50%
45%
5%
YES +5
44%
45%
11%
NO +1
46%
46%
8%
Even
56%
42%
2%
YES +14
60%
37%
3%
YES +23
55%
32%
13%
YES +23
48%
33%
9%
YES +15
57%
34%
9%
YES +23

Proposition 76: State Spending Limits
• School Funding. State Spending. Initiative Constitutional Amendment.

Poll
YES
NO
Und
Spread
39%
59%
2%
NO +20
34%
66%
N/A
NO +32
40%
56%
3%
NO +16
49%
49%
2%
Even
42%
56%
2%
NO +14
36%
61%
2%
NO +25
31%
60%
9%
NO +29
32%
60%
8%
NO +28
45%
55%
N/A
NO +10
36%
59%
5%
NO +23
28%
60%
12%
NO +32
30%
62%
8%
NO +32
54%
41%
5%
YES +13
58%
36%
6%
YES +22
26%
63%
11%
NO +37
19%
65%
16%
NO +46
28%
61%
11%
NO +33
35%
42%
23%
NO +7

Proposition 77: Redistricting
Reapportionment. Initiative Constitutional Amendment.

Poll
YES
NO
Und
Spread
41%
56%
2%
NO +15
40%
60%
N/A
NO +20
41%
52%
6%
NO +11
44%
53%
3%
NO +9
34%
56%
10%
NO +22
35%
51%
14%
NO +16
55%
45%
N/A
YES +10
42%
46%
12%
NO +4
38%
41%
21%
NO +3
36%
50%
14%
NO +14
54%
41%
5%
YES +13
59%
36%
5%
YES +23
33%
50%
17%
NO +17
32%
46%
22%
NO +14
34%
49%
17%
NO +15
35%
46%
19%
NO +11

Proposition 78: Drug Discounts (Industry Backed)
• Prescription Drugs. Discounts. Initiative Statute.

Poll
YES
NO
Und
Spread
49%
51%
N/A
NO +2
33%
55%
13%
NO +22
38%
43%
19%
NO +5
36%
45%
19%
NO +9
51%
49%
N/A
YES +2
39%
45%
16%
NO +6
39%
38%
23%
YES +1
43%
38%
19%
YES +5
49%
31%
20%
YES +18
57%
26%
17%
YES +31

Proposition 79: Drug Discounts (Consumer Groups Backed)
• Prescription Drug Discounts. State-Negotiated Rebates. Initiative Statute.

Poll
YES
NO
Und
Spread
49%
51%
N/A
NO +2
38%
46%
16%
NO +8
30%
47%
23%
NO +17
37%
43%
20%
NO +6
50%
50%
N/A
Even
43%
40%
17%
YES +3
37%
39%
24%
NO +2
34%
40%
26%
NO +6
42%
34%
24%
YES +8
48%
33%
19%
YES +15

Proposition 80: Electricity Regulation
• Electric Service Providers. Regulation. Initiative Statute.
Summary: Subjects electric service providers, as defined, to control and regulation by California Public Utilities Commission. Imposes restrictions on electricity customers' ability to switch from private utilities to other electric providers. Provides that registration by electric service providers with Commission constitutes providers' consent to regulation. Requires all retail electric sellers, instead of just private utilities, to increase renewable energy resource procurement by at least 1% each year, with 20% of retail sales procured from renewable energy by 2010, instead of current requirement of 2017. Imposes duties on Commission, Legislature and electrical providers.

Poll
YES
NO
Und
Spread
37%
63%
N/A
NO +26
25%
48%
27%
NO +23
24%
48%
28%
NO +24
46%
54%
N/A
NO +8
22%
48%
30%
NO +26
33%
35%
32%
NO +2

Posted by on November 08, 2005 at 09:20 AM in 2005 Special Election | | Comments (10) | TrackBack (0)

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Measure D Predictions

OK, it's time to make your Measure D predictions. As usual, the prediction contest winner receives an OC Blog beer stein (or coffee mug).

Predictions need to be down to the first decimal point, i.e. 45.6%.

If you want to throw in predictions on Measures B, C and E, knock yourself out.

Posted by on November 08, 2005 at 08:05 AM in 2005 Special Election | | Comments (38) | TrackBack (0)

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November 07, 2005

More Negative Polling Numbers

Hipped by Real Clear Politics -- Schwarzenegger Propositions Still Trailing,

The survey was conducted between November 2 and November 5, 2005. 1,887 registered voters belonging to the PollingPoint Internet panel participated in the survey. Of these, 1,181 were classified as likely voters using Polimetrix's Turnout Propensity Model which uses a combination of survey data, demographics, and past vote history. The sampling error for the survey is plus or minus 3 percent for likely voters. The survey estimates are also subject to potential non-sampling errors due to the sample selection technique, which utilizes a patent-pending method for representing the universe of registered voters in California.

Vote Intention for Likely Voters

 

Yes

No

Undecided

Proposition 73 (Parental Notification)

October 21-28

November 2-5

 

43%

43%

 

53%

54%

 

5%

3%

Proposition 74 (Teacher tenure)

October 21-28

November 2-5

 

42%

45%

 

53%

52%

 

5%

3%

Proposition 75 (Union dues)
October 21-28

November 2-5

 

50%

48%

 

45%

49%

 

5%

3%

Proposition 76 (Spending limits)
October 21-28

November 2-5

 

36%

40%

 

59%

56%

 

5%

3%

Proposition 77 (Redistricting)

October 21-28

November 2-5

 

42%

41%

 

46%

52%

 

12%

6%

Proposition 78 ( Drug discounts/industry)

October 21-28

November 2-5

 

39%

33%

 

45%

55%

 

16%

13%

Proposition 79 (Drug discounts/consumer)

October 21-28

November 2-5

 

43%

38%

 

40%

46%

 

17%

16%

Posted by on November 07, 2005 at 11:56 AM in 2005 Special Election | | Comments (6) | TrackBack (0)

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November 04, 2005

...And Over At Tin Star Blog

The Sergeant has some new posts over at his Tin Star blog. He blogs about Prop. 75 and lambastes Cosat Mesa Mayor Allan Mansoor for his support for Prop. 75. Love ya, Sarge, but in a free country no person should be compelled to fund political activities. What's the harm in asking permission before using dues for politics?

Sergeant also takes a look at the respective financial situations of the Yes and No on D campaigns and apparent yard sign shenanigans by the firefighters (I'm shocked!).

Posted by on November 04, 2005 at 12:14 PM in 2005 Special Election, Measure D, OC Blogosphere, Politics Behind the Orange Curtain | | Comments (49) | TrackBack (0)

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November 03, 2005

More on the Jury Mailer

From the Redding Record Searchlight.  In part,

A political mailer loosely masquerading as a jury summons drew a complaint to the state attorney general’s office Tuesday.  Supporters of Proposition 77 filed the complaint after opponents of the redistricting measure sent the mailers in envelopes with the words, "JURY DUTY" next to a postmark.

Complete article here as the paper may want your blood type to read their stuff.

Posted by on November 03, 2005 at 08:54 AM in 2005 Special Election | | Comments (16) | TrackBack (0)

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November 02, 2005

Polls Turning South

With the LA Times poll out today, and new polling from Survey USA, it's not looking good.  Summarized from Real Clear Politics:

Proposition 74: Public School Teachers Tenure

Poll
YES
NO
Und
Spread
49%
50%
2%
NO +1
45%
47%
8%
NO +2
44%
50%
6%
NO +6
44%
47%
9%
NO +3
46%
48%
6%
NO +2
53%
45%
1%
YES +8
55%
44%
2%
YES +10
43%
47%
10%
NO +4
46%
37%
17%
YES +9
49%
42%
9%
YES +7
61%
32%
7%
YES +29

Proposition 75: Union Dues -- Political Contributions

Poll
YES
NO
Und
Spread
50%
49%
2%
YES +1
40%
51%
9%
NO +11
40%
50%
10%
NO +10
44%
45%
11%
NO +1
46%
46%
8%
Even
56%
42%
2%
YES +14
60%
37%
3%
YES +23
55%
32%
13%
YES +23
48%
33%
9%
YES +15
57%
34%
9%
YES +23

Proposition 76: State Spending Limits

Poll
YES
NO
Und
Spread
49%
49%
2%
Even
42%
56%
2%
NO +14
36%
61%
2%
NO +25
31%
60%
9%
NO +29
32%
60%
8%
NO +28
28%
60%
12%
NO +32
30%
62%
8%
NO +32
54%
41%
5%
YES +13
58%
36%
6%
YES +22
26%
63%
11%
NO +37
19%
65%
16%
NO +46
28%
61%
11%
NO +33
35%
42%
23%
NO +7

Proposition 77: Redistricting

Poll
YES
NO
Und
Spread
44%
53%
3%
NO +9
34%
56%
10%
NO +22
35%
51%
14%
NO +16
38%
41%
21%
NO +3
36%
50%
14%
NO +14
54%
41%
5%
YES +13
59%
36%
5%
YES +23
33%
50%
17%
NO +17
32%
46%
22%
NO +14
34%
49%
17%
NO +15
35%
46%
19%
NO +11

Update: Check out an interesting interview by Jon Fleischman at the FlashReport on these latest numbers at EXCLUSIVE PRE-ELECTION INTERVIEW WITH ARNIE STEINBERG.

Posted by on November 02, 2005 at 07:16 AM in 2005 Special Election | | Comments (35) | TrackBack (4)

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November 01, 2005

FR on Props. 74-77 Polling

Hipped by the FlashReport, here's more polling from their Columnist Bill Whalen:

While the Field Poll will generate all sorts of buzz today, here's another set numbers that paints a different picture of the special election, courtesy of the Stanford University/Hoover Institution/Knowledge Networks Internet poll.

The findings:

-- Prop 74 leads, 54-47

-- Prop 75 is comfortably ahead, 64-36

-- Prop 76 trails, 45-55

-- Prop 77 leads, 55-45

Compared to the previous Internet survey in early October, three of the four reform measures have actually grown in support. The only one that's weakened: nope, not 76. It's 75. Go figure.

Note: the S/H/KN poll differs from conventional telephone polls in having respondents fill out a replica of an actual ballot. The argument for this is it offers more anonymity and a closer resemblance to the choice people actually face in the voting booth.

Naturally, the polling big boys scoff at this. I'd remind them: the same Internet poll came closest to guessing Arnold's performance in recall, the last time we had a special election.

Also check out Whalen's take on the Field Poll later in the column.

Posted by on November 01, 2005 at 11:15 AM in 2005 Special Election | | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)

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Latest Field Poll Shows Props Behind

Released today, the Field Poll is saying NO SIDE LEADS YES SIDE ON ALL FOUR OF THE PROPOSITIONS BACKED BY GOVERNOR SCHWARZENEGGER.  The pertinent table,

Clipboard01_2

Posted by on November 01, 2005 at 07:12 AM in 2005 Special Election | | Comments (22) | TrackBack (0)

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October 31, 2005

More Reasons for Prop. 77

Ken Masugi, father of the Local Liberty Blog and a Director at Claremont, had an interesting piece in the Register this morning: Prop. 77's immigration angle.  In part,

Illegal immigration is imposing a new three-fifths-clause blotch upon our nation. Illegal immigrants need to count, as slaves should have, as zero persons for purposes of drawing political districts. Let the politicians who defend the current arrangements justify counting illegal immigrants.  Illegal immigration undeniably contributes to the current, corrupt redistricting scheme. Outraged citizens can protest this injustice through a vote for Prop. 77.

Posted by on October 31, 2005 at 10:35 AM in 2005 Special Election | | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0)

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October 29, 2005

Goonism

Hipped by the Local Liberty Blog, check this sterling example of collective bargaining per the indispensable Michelle Malkin: UNION THUGS UNHINGED.  "...Whipping the crowd into a frenzy was none other than (Assembly) Speaker Fabian Nunez, who was a featured speaker at the rally in Pershing Square."  There was absolutely no mention of this incident in the MSM today, excepting the Channel 9 clip that apparently was provided by the CRP.

And also from Local Liberty, not the worst idea you'll hear today in Cracking Down on Employers of Illegals:

Conor Friedersdorf proposes an equivalent of the Minutemen for employers of illegals. See his Beyond Borders Blog and regular columns in the Daily Bulletin.

Work site arrests dropped 83 percent between 1999 and 2003, according to the Government Accountability Office. Over roughly the same period, fines issued to employers fell from 427 citations in 1999 to just three citations during fiscal 2004!

Posted by on October 29, 2005 at 12:26 PM in 2005 Special Election | | Comments (9) | TrackBack (0)

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