Rick Reiff On The 48th CD Special Election

Orange County Business Journal Executive Editor Rick Reiff is a clear-headed, economic conservative not prone to alarmism or over-heated rhetoric -- which makes his commentary on the results of the 48th CD special election (published in the current OCBJ) worth reading:

Congress, Immigration

By Rick Reiff

Orange County Business Journal Staff

JOHN CAMPBELL WON THE RUNOFF IN THE FORTY-EIGHTH Congressional District for the “Chris Cox seat.” It was no surprise. But it’s still welcome news for business.

Campbell, like the man he replaces, is a fiscal hawk, a champion of entrepreneurs and a foe of burdensome government. On key votes regarding taxes, the economy and most anything else, it probably will seem like Cox never left.

In fact, some observers have called Campbell a “Cox clone,” a term not always meant flatteringly but embraced nonetheless by Campbell, even if it misses the nuances.

Yes, both are Republican, conservative, bright, preppy, USC-graduated and professionally pedigreed (law for Cox, accounting for Campbell). Both are excellent writers who like to have their opinions published.

But Cox is a powerful and patient intellectual who loves finding bipartisan consensus. His biggest congressional victories—a moratorium on Internet taxes, a phasing out of the death tax, a clampdown on trial lawyers—were brilliantly conceived, slowly achieved and often qualified.

Campbell is less patient, even hyper at times. Where Cox is an eloquent speaker, Campbell is non-stop. As a state lawmaker, Campbell has been less about consensus than confrontation, though that may owe in part to the leftist leadership he has had to contend with.

But Campbell also may prove a little bolder than Cox, who was cautious to a fault. Campbell was among the first lawmakers to back the Gray Davis recall, with money as well as words. Even his decision to run for Congress was quick and emphatic, clearing the decks of serious challengers.

Such assertiveness may serve Campbell well in a Congress that, like Sacramento, seems to get more partisan by the day. So let’s call Campbell a Cox with more bite and a bit less gravitas and wish him well.

But let’s also note: This election should be a wake-up call to the political establishment—and indeed the vote results have been eliciting comments from pundits across the country.

Minuteman founder Jim Gilchrist—a third party, single-issue candidate, a political novice with an amateur campaign and an underwhelming presence—nonetheless got 25% of the vote. He got a plurality of the votes on Election Day. (Campbell won the election with absentee ballots.)

Gilchrist deprived Campbell from getting 50% of the vote in a heavily Republican district that routinely went almost 70% for Cox. Gilchrist also appeared to peel some votes from Democrat Steve Young, the most impressive and hardest-working candidate his party has fielded in the 48th in years, but who fell short of the Democrats’ usual one-third share.

The reason for Gilchrist’s strong showing is obvious: Anti-immigration fervor. It may be the most significant grassroots issue in California since the anti-tax revolt that spawned Proposition 13. Politicians ignore it or dismiss it at their peril.

Immigration is not just a blue-collar-jobs issue, as some Minuteman critics suggest. I was astonished by several professional and business friends, threatened neither at work nor at home by illegal immigration, who confided to me that while they would normally have voted for Campbell, they were voting for Gilchrist instead.

They wanted to “send a message.” They acknowledge the contributions that immigrants make to our economy. But they are incensed over what they perceive to be the negative impacts of illegal immigration on schools, social services and crime. And they are concerned about lax security on the border.

As a contributor who goes by the pseudonym “Ross Perot” summed it up on OC Blog: “One out of every four voters voted for a whacknut third party candidate, warts and all, because he is tough on this one issue. On no other one issue could a candidate campaign so hard and get 25% of the vote. Not taxes, not life, not anything.”

Talk radio’s KFI made a statement in this election, too. The Burbank-based station has effectively become OC’s own commercial news-and-issues outlet, focusing a disproportionate amount of its time and attention on this county.

And the station’s afternoon shock jocks, John Kobylt and Ken Chiampou, have taken up the Minuteman crusade. They’ve caused headaches for Cox, and for another California congressman, David Dreier, over immigration. In recent days they turned their wrath on Campbell, who is tough on illegal immigration by most measures, but not theirs.

Under such pressure, Campbell’s campaign rhetoric on the issue appeared to harden. Similarly, pro-immigration President George Bush has been forced to talk tougher on illegal immigration.

Bush’s new immigration plan attempts to balance the two sides of the debate, offering a guest-worker program coupled with tougher border security. It will be a tough sell in a political climate that has little room for give. And it will be interesting to see whether it wins the support of a new congressman named Campbell.

Gilchrist and the Minutemen won’t be going away. Politicians, both Republicans and Democrats, beware.

Comments

[Allan Bartlett]

On balance, I'd say that Mr Reiff is spot on with his analysis. I especially liked his last sentence...

"Gilchrist and the Minutemen won’t be going away. Politicians, both Republicans and Democrats, beware."

We will see real fast how John "44%" Campbell's rhetoric squares with his votes coming up on immigration reform. Any vote for any "guest worker" program will be considered a vote for amnesty pure & simple. I hope he understands that.

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[Miriam Bertram]

This guest worker idea is a no go in my mind unless all workers under the program are not allowed to marry or have children (legitimate or illigitimate). AND we know that won't happen... I stopped the OCR after yet another article about a poverty stricken illegal immigrant couple and their 5 legal children.

[Allan Bartlett]

LOL Miriam. The anchor baby issue is a huge problem. You're right about the Register too. I keep seeing these stories of how worried the illegals are that they might be caught and their family might get separated or all deported. Are you freakin kidding me! Then don't break our laws and come here illegally! I have zero sympathy for these people when I read crap like this. They should have thought about that before they committed a felony by coming over here.

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[KenB]

Great comparison of Cox/Campbell. Kudos to Mr. Reiff. One thing that has come to mind is what happened to the Cox staff? Very few of them went over to SEC.

One thing I understand Cox was known for on Capitol Hill was his high-level intellectual staff. I hear that his campaign manager came to DC, with no former Washington experience to head the office. Sacramento staff (God help us) have also come to D.C. and some hired staff aren't from, or have even been to California.

This is really going to hurt Campbell is he is sincere in trying to make his mark quickly in Washington.

[Phil Paule]

Dear Ken B

Having worked during the campaign with the very people your are making assumptions regarding, I can assure that they are hard working, smart and very capable of carrying out the policy of Congressman Campbell. I am sorry that Campbell did not think of choosing someone an intellectually superior as yourself to go to DC with him.