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December 06, 2005


Jeff Flint

Powder Blue was surprisingly close:

Cohen got 1%, as Allan predicted.

Tirtilli for 1%, as Allan predicted.

Allan predicted 23% for Young, and Young got 25%.

And the combined voted of Campbell and Gilchrist is 72%, very close to the 75% that Allan predicted.

Good work!


Not surprising, actually. Part of the Young campaign strategy was to fly under the radar in the October election so that it would be seen in as a two man race (Campbell-Gilchrist), with Young slipping in. See, for instance, the Paul hackett model (wikipedia link). (You'll note that in that Ohio special election, almost four times as many Republicans voted than Dems in the primary, but Hackett still ended up being very close.) Gilchrist supporters were never the absentee type anyway, and Campbell had the NRCC big guns drop a quarter million into his coffers the last week to ensure he would not be embarrassed. Without the quarter million, and the experienced absentee crew and election-tested staff of Campbell, the victory would not be as assured.

geez louise

Don't you mean the buddy hackett model? Anyway, it's only the absentees. Gilchrist picks up 7 pts.


Don't count your undocumented workers until they cross the border. Campbell's strength was in getting the absentee vote of the country club set. No doubt Campbell will win. Question is by how much.


By the way, PollTrack is back, meaning you can watch the ballots come in, find where the ballots are, and other fun stuff.

With the first results back from today's voting, it looks like Campbell will drop below 50%. Message sent. Will the President hear it?



Projecting fromt the second batch of precinct ballots, it looks like Campbell will get about 44% of the vote. This does not bode well for the mid-term elections.

Sunny Side

Why is it that losers always find a way to denigrate the winner. Accept defeat and quit trying to make yourselves look like sour grapes.

Final Results:

JOHN CAMPBELL (REP) 41450 44.7%
STEVE YOUNG (DEM) 25926 28.0%
JIM GILCHRIST (AI) 23237 25.1%
BRUCE COHEN (LIB) 880 0.9%

Allan and friends, message sent, welcome back to the Party. Now, let's get working on a solution to the problem. Cong. Duncan Hunter's wall anyone?

These results show that 35% of 48th district
Republicans are madder than hell, and we're
not going to take it anymore! This will
have big implications for 2006, and maybe
the springboard for Tom Tancredo to be
a big spoiler in 2008.

Allen J. Wilson

Republicans better wake up and FIGHT BACK to our basic principles:

Immigration Control
Limited Government
Lower Taxes
Stop Government Spending

GOVERN LIKE A MAJORITY in the House, Senate and White House. Stop giving in to Democrats demands.

Republicans need to fight outside of the party and against the Liberals Democrats. We need to move on and time to be LEADERS!

Lets save our energy for 2006, because alot of work is ahead of ourselves.

Chaz Lambrusco


Campbell 10555 30.5%
Young 11229 32.4%
Gilchrist 12293 35.5%
Tiritilli 327 0.9%
Cohen 236 0.7%

Gilchrist needed an absentee ballot campaign,
as Allan pointed out. That is where it
is won or lost.

Phil Paule

Congrats to Gilchrist on getting his 25%. However, it does not mean a thing. The object in campaigns is to win. John Campbell won. Gilchrist lost. Story Over !!!!

Allan Bartlett

I congratulate John Campbell on his victory. Since I just got back in, it looks like arrogance is the theme of the day still for the establishment GOPers here on OC Blog. The fact is that we outhustled the vaunted Campbell/GOP election day GOTV. How does that feel Flint, Jubal, Probolsky, et al? If Campbell votes for anything with "guest worker" in a bill, he did not get the message from tonight. Oh yeah and 44% is pretty damn close to my prediction of 37%. Who won the mug?

Powder Blue Report

Imagine if Gilchrist wasn't so stupid - if Mr. Minuteman himself didn't say the stupid things about capitalists and the death tax or support the Green Party candidate.

Imagine if he would've picked up the phone and raised some money.

He just might've won.

This central committee member wanted to support Gilchrist. I tried to give him the benefit of the doubt, but he did so much to discredit himself that it wasn't possible.

Gilchrist's supporters are trying to say this is a victory. Everyone knows it isn't. I challenge them to look at his short comings and ask what could've been.

I didn't expect Gilchrist to do this well and in my mind bascially discredited a movement because of its leader. Now I'm just a sad that the movement has suffered because of Jim Gilchrist. My original thoughts were valid, this could've been something.


The fact is that we outhustled the vaunted Campbell/GOP election day GOTV.

Allan, it's late and I don't know if you are right -- but even if you are, so what? 44% of the voters chose Campbell, and 75% rejected Gilchrist.

How can you possibly spin that into a victory?

Protect Our Borders Now !!

Jim Gilchrist is the winner. He won the hearts of the people. Sellout Campbell won the money of big business that use Mexicans to profit. The other winners are Joe Terry, Dave Gillard, Hugh Hewitt and Phil Paule. They were paid over $1,000,000 by the White House and the Republicans in Washington to tell lies about a great American Jim Gilchrist. They believe in greed over country.

We will be back, we are going to reorganize and win the next election. This is not over. We are going to protect America from the Big Business Republicans.

Gilchrist needs to demand a hand recount. I never takled one Campbell voter the whole time I made phone calls for Gilchrist. How do we know the voting booths were not rigged by the Republicans that run Orange County.

Robbie Haglund

How does that feel Flint, Jubal, Probolsky, et al?

I feel offended that Allan doesn't think I deserve a spot on that list.

As for the recount thing, if it is a joke it's damn funny. If it's not a joke... ok it's still funny.


Campbell needs to watch his back. There's another election less than a year from now.

Holding Campbell to less than 50% in this district is a moral victory for Gilchrist.

It seems that many of the Brewer voters stayed at home or possibly voted for Young.

Young's surprising showing should also give the GOP concern.

If Campbell falls prey to DC-itis, he should be challenged but not by Gilchrist.

The Libertarian ran a poor campaign. It seemed to me that his web site said very little about his position on the issues.

Miriam Bertram

Young's vote was the registration for Dems in the district. So his vote is not a concern. Since his primary was 8%, it looks like the votes for Brewer were Dems.

Blog Watcher

The Libertarian ran a poor campaign. It seemed to me that his web site said very little about his position on the issues.

Libertarians always run poor campaigns. Their MO is to just run around blabbering about the 'free market' and be contrarian about everything.

That is one of the reasons why so many of them hold public office.

Common Sense

Lanceman, Young's suprising showing? Please sir, 25%...if Gilchrist weren't in the race Campbell would have had easily 60%...Jim Gilchrist is the poorman's Ross Perot, the difference his antics didn't cost the Republican nominee the election.


Libertarians always run poor campaigns.
That is one of the reasons why so many of them hold public office.

Hard to argue with that. However, IIRC Libertarians have more elected officials at all levels (local, state, national) than all other "third parties" combined. True, it's statistically insignificant next to the dominance of the bi-factional ruling party the Republocrats, but there it is.

Their MO is to just run around blabbering about the 'free market' and be contrarian about everything.

Now that just sounds like you weren't listening very carefully the first time and have ignored every subsequent Libertarian on the basis that he must be just the same as the last guy. Did Judge Jim Gray strike you as a "blabbering" candidate, or did you ignore anything he said without finding out for yourself if he really was the same as that other Libertarian who obviously rubbed you the wrong way in the past?

No wonder it's so hard for anyone to run a campaign who'd rather talk rationally and logically about principles and issues rather than "the other guy sucks" or the ever-successful "you better vote for me or you'll get stuck with something worse".

Jerry Amante

All the spin aside, John Campbell gets sworn tonight in D.C and serves as our Congressman. The object of a campaign is to win. John did. The Congressman now serves the people of the 48th and he will do just as he always has...he will serve us well.

Congratulations to all who had a hand in his victory. To all who walked and phoned and gave and blogged and, frankly, gave a damn about our representative government enough to send a well rounded, multi-dimensional, energetic proven leader to the House. I am proud of you all and am celebrating today!

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