48th CD Special Election Wrap-Up

The election is over and John Campbell has won a decisive victory. The Gilchrist zombies are already chanting their "losing-is-really-winning" mantra, claiming that "holding" Campbell to less than 50% is a "moral victory" that "sends a message" to Washington. I suppose they're still working on explaining how going from 2nd place in the primary to 3rd place in the general behind a Democrat who wants to let illegals into the country is a "moral victory." But, apparently the conventional rules of logic hold no power on the other side of the looking glass.

Perhaps a side-by-side comparison of the October 4 and December 6 elections will be illuminating.

October 4 Primary

Total Registered Voters      402,006                                                                  
Precinct Registration          402,006
Precinct Ballots Cast            33,547                8.3%                                        
Early Ballots Cast                     964                0.2%                                        
Absentee Ballots Cast          57,200                14.2%                                        
Total Ballots Cast                91,711                2.8%

John Campbell (REP)           41,420                45.5%
Marilyn C. Brewer (REP)       15,595                17.1%
Jim Gilchrist (AI)                13,423                14.8%
Steve Young (DEM)                7,941                 8.7%

December 6 General Election

Total Registered Voters      405,655   
Precinct Registration          405,655
Precinct Ballots Cast             34,844                8.6%
Early Ballots Cast                        28                0.0%
Absentee Ballots Cast            58,266             14.4%
Total Ballots Cast                  93,138             23.0%

John Campbell (REP)              41,450             44.7%
Steve Young (DEM)                 25,926             28.0%
Jim Gilchrist (AI)                   23,237              25.1%
Bea Tiritilli (GRN)                    1,242               1.3%
Bruce Cohen (LIB)                       880               0.9%

Some observations:

1) Defying predictions, turnout yesterday was slightly higher than on October 4. The breakdown of absentees versus precinct ballots was virtually identical.

2) Campbell's vote total was practically unchanged from the October 4 primary, while Young increased his by nearly 18,000 votes and Gilchrist by nearly 10,000 votes. It seems Young garnered most of the Democrat votes that went for Brewer, Graham, Foster and Pallow in October, while Gilchrist presumably picked up a share of Brewer's voters and the loose change from the rest of the October candidate herd.

3) I was surprised that Campbell didn't do better. I was expecting his percentage to land in the mid-50s. Obviously, illegal immigration is a powerful issue -- and one (I think) that is magnified by a low-turnout special election.

3) Gilchrist did exceptionally well for a third party candidate in terms of fund-raising and attracting votes.

4) Steve Young's dramatic increase from the primary to the general is not so dramatic when you conisder he failed to beat the Democratic nominee's showing in in that district for the last three general elections: John Graham received 32.2% in 2004, 28.4% in 2002 and 30.1% in 2000.

The Gilchrist crowd can crow about their "moral victory" (interesting that only in the last couple of days did the Gilchrist zombies start saying they would consider holding Campbell below 50% was the benchmark for a Gilchrist "moral victory"), but which candidate is flying to Washington DC to be sworn in as a Congressman?

Losing is losing, and the hard truth is Gilchrist was beaten by nearly 20,000 votes. Now that we have departed the strange special election universe for the normal environment of a regular elections, you will see Congressman Campbell winning easy victories in the June and November 2006 elections.

 

Comments

[JozefColomy]

You hit the proverbial nail on the head Jubal--losing is losing, and lose Uncle Jimmy did.

I just can't wait until Congressman Campbell gets into Congress, votes the way he has advertised, and puts to shame the lying JimG fiends. This election was a great victory for the citizens of the 48th, as they have elected the candidate who will best represent them and who will best stand up for their interests, and not go into personal tirades about one issue.

[Allan Bartlett]

Jubal you are just killing me with your spin. The fact of the matter is that if we had done an effective absentee ballot chase like the GOP is good at, Jim Gilchrist would be flying to DC today and not John Campbell. We beat you on election day which you convienently choose not to talk about. The fact of the matter is that the local GOP establishment is in a state of shock right now from Jim's showing last night. We are going to raise at least a few million dollars in the next six months before the June primary. Maybe we'll run against Campbell or maybe like Jim mentioned, an insurgency candidacy against the queen bee of amnesty for illegals herself, Diane Feinstein.

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[Miriam Bertram]

Allan, what were the results for those who voted on Tuesday?

[Allan Bartlett]

Miriam,

Here they are in all their glory. So much for the vaunted Campbell GOTV election day effort. That really is disgraceful that Steve Young beat John Campbell too. What the hell is going on at the county party? They can't even beat a no talent trial lawyer in one of the most Republican districts? I think heads should roll on this.

Campbell 10555 30.5%
Young 11229 32.4%
Gilchrist 12293 35.5%
Tiritilli 327 0.9%
Cohen 236 0.7%

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[Art Pedroza]

How did the Green Party candidate come up with more votes than the Libertarian candidate? Say it ain't so!

Congratulations to John Campbell - his career will surely last longer than a minute...

Art Pedroza
Orange Juice
http://o-juice.blogspot.com/

[lanceman]

The fact that Campbell's web site never changed once he got all of his establishment endorsements suggests he will take this district for granted. And he probably can. We can all go back into our coma, there's a "conservative" Republican in DC. I hope I am wrong. And if I am, I would be glad to vote for Campbell. In a sense I was a zombie - when, for over 25 years I repeatedly voted GOP in hopes of smaller government. By the way, where exactly is this smaller government the GOP repeatedly talks about?

[lanceman]

The Libertarian candidate was pretty much a now-show in this election. I hope he didn't spend too much money! I think he even supported "stay the course" in Iraq which I can't see as being libertarian.

[Silence Dogood]

Allan-

There's nothing to gloat about. Jubal makes what appear to be retrospective concessions to the Gilchrist camp (see point 2,3, and 4).

I think the 25% of voters who cast their ballots for Gilchrist did make a statement. Gilchrist may have raised more money and garnered more votes than any other AIP candidate since George Wallace. That's quite a feat.

But losing is losing. There aren't any points for second place, or third. This election was a foregone conclusion. No one respectable thought the outcome would change.

Hopefully, Congressman-elect John Campbell learned something from his constituents, the voters in this campaign, and their political interests. That's what campaigns are supposed to, drum up popular interests and have them realized by the various candidates. I look forward to seeing the voters' interests implemented - with wonder to what extent - by Campbell in Washington.

Moral victory? Call it whatever you like. It was six months in the long political life of our community and country.

[anon ii]

Results were to be expected, but I'm glad KFI and Gilchrist made some noise. Blog Watcher, go ahead- "But what did they win?"

[Stuart O'Neill]

Only thing I would like to see in all these analysis is a stop to the comparison's between the General Election of 2004, with a Presidential Election that lasted over a year..hundreds of millions of dollars to drum up the vote and a 60% turnout...,and a 119 day Special Election with 23% turnout and little cash on anyone's part but Campbell's.

And Campbell made no beans about a GOTV effort that I know of...he ran a 'high-gloss, direct mail campaign' from behind cover. He didn't get out and debate very often. It proved effective on the 40,000 households where he poured $450,000 in 11 direct mailings in the Primary. Most of them stayed with him in the General. And, frankly, it worked.

If you take a close look at the finish, his margin is only the margin of his Absentee ballots.

As to turnout, live turnout was only 8.6%! Comparing a 23% Gross turnout (which was actually only 8.6% at the Polling place) to a Presidential Election Year's Returns where turnout was 60% simply is apples and oranges.

Ah well...on to other races and places....

You've been more than fair, Jubal. Thank you.

[Jubal]

Jubal you are just killing me with your spin. The fact of the matter is that if we had done an effective absentee ballot chase like the GOP is good at, Jim Gilchrist would be flying to DC today and not John Campbell. We beat you on election day which you convienently choose not to talk about.

Spin? Spin?

Allan, my friend, the only ones spinning are you and your fellow Gilchrist zombies.

"If we had done an absentee chase..." If, if, if! Pure speculation, Allan. I submit Campbell would have beaten Gilchrist in the absentees even if Gilchrist's campaign workers possessed the skill and experience to conduct an effective AB program. Which they didn't -- so your guy got clobbered. Absentee voters are better informed and more deliberative than Election Day voters -- and hence more resistant to the suasions of oddlings like Gilchrist.

As for the "we beat you on election day" taunt, again I ask -- so what? That's like bragging that a football team that lost in a blow out "won" the 4th quarter.

Gilchrist came out ahead among the 8.6% who voted on Election Day, and Campbell came out ahead among the 14.4% who voted absentee. Guess who's a Congressman now?

[Hardly "Decisive"]

Jubal - No excuses, a loss is a loss for Gilchrist and a win is a win for Rep. Campbell.

However, it is inaccurate to call Rep. Campbell's victory "decisive"

[Logical]

A more accurate analysis is somewhere in the middle of how Jubal and Bartlett see it:

- A decisive win for JC: Well sure; 16.7 margin over SY and 19.6 over JG.
- A message sent to JC/GOP on illegal immigration: Sure; JC received lower percentage than the primary and picked up absolutely no additional votes (JG vote count increased 10K; SY got all those Dems back that voted for Brewer and increased 18K).

Bottom line: A good Rep without II hiccups would have won outright on Oct 4; and if not, would have definitely garnered in excess of 50% in the general (likely exceeding 60%).

It's doubtful our new congressman will champion anything except budget issues (where he should definitely be a hawk) but we can only hope he'll stand true on II when the strong-willed congressmen put forward their bills to curb the tide.

[Lemons for Sale]

It is no shock that "Honest" John Campbell the used car salesman is soft on illegal immigration. Once illegal aliens are given drivers licenses, he will be able to sell more cars.

[Jerry Amante]

To all:

Take it from a Bruin who just suffered a pretty signifficant loss ( Allan ..can you relate? )and who is still smarting from that spanking.... When you get crushed in competition...it's best to be graceful in the loss and live to compete another day with some degree of respect left from the competitor(s) that ate your lunch.

To argue..."but my defense in the 3rd quarter was better than your defense in the second quarter"...while getting your butt beat sounds like whining.

John Campbell beat Steve Young and Jim Gilchrist straight up. He had a better game plan. He had better execution. He did what he had to do and won...time for some of us to enjoy and the rest to gracefully move on.

[Jim]

Allan, I don't think it's fair to characterize Steve Young as a "no talent" trial lawyer. I would not and did not vote for him, but I have been his opposing counsel and can tell you that he is a talented attorney.

[Allan Bartlett]

LOL Lemons for Sale!

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