Holiday Madness, Or Shrinkage Of Support For Tom Harman?

Now that Assemblyman Tom Harman no longer appears to be a slam dunk for the 35th Senate special election, thanks to Diane Harkey's eruption into the race, are his supporters beginning to hedge their bets?

That was the first thought that crossed my mind after reading this e-mail from Roger Faubel, president of Faubel Public Affairs:

I wanted to let you know as soon as possible that the fundraiser for Assemblyman Tom Harman on Tuesday, November 29th, hosted by Faubel Public Affairs, has been postponed due to the busy holiday season and conflicting events.  Thanks and we'll be in touch.

Three possibilities leap to mind:

1) The explanation can be taken at face value (the Tuesday following Thanksgiving weekend isn't great timing for a fundraiser).

or

2) Attendance looked to be embarassingly sparse, so Faubel is buying some time to pump up the numbers.

or

3) Faubel is pondering jumping off the Harman bandwagon now that ole Tom seems to be running in place and the momentum increasingly shifts to Harkey. That kind of thing happens in the cruel world of politics, after all. Back in 2001, Faubel and then-partner Meg Waters were high-profile supporters of District Attorney challenger Wally Wade when he had loads of media momentum and Tony Rackauckas appeared headed to defeat. Fortunes in that race abruptly reversed in early 2002, and before the March primary arrived Waters & Faubel had abandoned the sinking S.S. Wally Wade.

I suppose all questions will be answered if the Harman fundraiser is re-scheduled.

Comments

Poor Tom. Chased out of the county supervisor race by Treasurer John Moorlach, then out hustled by Dana Point Councilwoman Diane Harkey.

I hear there's a county treasurer seat opening up or perhaps a vacancy on the Huntington Beach City Council.

[2nd district yahoo]

I think Tom's chances at being a supe are better than the Senate. The dynamics are similiar to those that existed in 2000 when he was elected to the Assembly.

[Roscoe]

Actually Harman's chances for any office today are muchs lower than in 2000. Why? Because he has a horrible voting record that demonstrates he is way out of touch with the voters in Orange County.

[Allan Bartlett]

Tom Harman cannot hold a candle to John Moorlach and he will get he a** kicked if he goes head to head against John. Face it Tom, just put an asterisk by your name by the way you got elected and thank your lucky stars that you got to Sacramento at all. Unless an open primary comes back, you will be relegated to running for dogcatcher or the like.

Powder Blue Report

[why]

Why is the powder blue guy posting on Thanksgiving? I thought his wife was cooking a feast fit for a King. Letting her do all the work, King Powder, while you surf the political blogs?

[Why Not]

Allan is posting on Thanksgiving because he is a turkey.

[The Mad Pilgram]

Duane & Jen over at Coronado Communications must be eating crow instead of turkey today. In the span of two days their highly touted congresional candidate ( Mark Wyland) pulls out of the 50th and now Orange County political king maker Rodger Faubel has pulled the plug on their other star client Tom "I Hate Prop 13" Harman.

Cheers Duane & Jen

[Allan Bartlett]

Between watching the dangers of fishing for crabs in Alaska on the Discovery Channel, pro football, reruns of the Amazing Race, and other cool shows on today, I still have time to to surf the net. My wife is a great cook and orders me out of the kitchen lest I get in the way! I'm just glad that I didn't have to travel this busy weekend like 38 million other people are doing I read. Oh yeah and my all time favorite Thanksgiving movie is Trains,Planes, and Automobiles. It's a true classic.

Powder Blue Report

[Miriam Bertram]

Hey Allan, Is Lynn going to make one of her fabulous cakes? If you in the blogosphere want to have a taste, you have to join the Irvine Republican Coalition and be nice to Allan. So be nice and stop sniping.

[Allan Bartlett]

Yes she did, another chocolate one! Miriam is right though about the IRC. We are a growing force and we are looking for potential Irvine Republican residents who want to make a difference in the outcome of our local, state, and national elections by organizing every precinct here in Irvine.

Powder Blue Report

[Those aren't pillows!]

Agreed! But it is Planes, Trains and Automobiles not Trains, Planes and Automobiles.

[Miriam Bertram]

If anyone wants to know more about the Irvine Republican Council (my bad calling it coalition), email me at irvinegop@cox.net.

Who is Diane Harkey? What has she ever done that would put her head and shoulders over someone who has spent six years in the Assembly? Besides sit on the Dana Point council I don't recall ever seeing her name anywhere important.

You may not like Harman's record or that he won in the first place but he did win (three times) so you may not want to count him out just yet.

If he is interested in the supervisors seat the county unions would fund his race and that is more than anyone would do for Moorlach, who has no support whatsoever.

[Matthew Cunningham]

Wow -- Tom Harman is an incumbent whom the unions love. That's quite a recommendation!

Is that your suggestion for his campaign slogan?

[Logical]

I'd guess that was Tom Harman himself making that 10:26am post; it's quite disheartening being run out of 2 races in such a short time by 2 real Republicans.

As far as Faubel, although he’s a nice enough guy, he’s an opportunist, a Democrat who’s made millions on Republicans; no, he’s not registered Dem, but of the same ilk as Harman/Daucher/Cristich/etc, who could/would be registered Dems if they lived elsewhere.

[Phil Paule]

Rodger is a smart businessman that knows how to cut his losses with folks like Harman.

[redperegrine]

"Moorlach, who has no support whatsoever. "

Au contraire, anonymous blogger. The guy's going to have every elected Republican in the County (maybe even the State) behind him. Sure the unions will fight him, just like they fought Norby. Same result.

[Silence Dogood]

In re: anonymous Harman supporter

Dear ,

Perhaps you should rethink what you have posted. Incumbency is never - I mean never - a plus when you're trying to sell to conservative Republicans, unless you've drastically reduced the size and scope of government. Tom "RINO" Harman HASN'T.

Perhaps Harkey has spent these past six years being a good citizen, paying her taxes, contributing to the local economy, not worrying as much about "seeing her name anywhere important" as Tom "RINO" Harman.

Perhaps you should look at the dynamics that allowed Tom "RINO" Harman to win in the first place. It might have been that the now-unConstitutional (First Amendment, right of assembly or association) open primary was in place. It might have been the presence of two conservatives. It might have been geography. It might have been the union support you love to tout. It might have been all of the above. Who knows?

Perhaps you should hold off on the county unions talk until after the special primary.

Or then again, you could shoot the other foot and continue as you have. I wouldn't mind seeing Tom "RINO" Harman lose.