Deliver Us Lord, From Every Harman...Part II

A consequence of Campbell's failure to win the special election outright on Tuesday is it provides OC conservatives with an extra two months to rally around a single, conservative alternative to Assemblyman Tom Harman -- who, as an incumbent legislator with a $100,000 in the bank and no real  or apparent opposition, is the clear front-runner.

Who's available? Here are the credible choice most frequently mentioned:

Jim Silva
Last month, there was a great deal of buzz and activity surrounding the possibility Supervisor Jim Silva would switch from his Assembly campaign against Dianne Harman to a Senate campaign against her husband. Notwithstanding some disappointing Board votes, Jim is unarguably more conservative than Harman, and has at least $263,000 in the bank. I haven't seen any recent polling, but my guess is Silva has the edge over Harman in name ID.

There's also no love lost between the two former Huntington Beach Councilmen: Harman actively supported HB Councilman Dave Sullivan's challenge to Supervisor Silva in 1998.

In the end, though, I doubt Silva makes the jump. He's almost certain to defeat Dianne Harman in the pro-airport 67th AD, whereas running against Harman in the 35th SD means having to deal with all those anti-airport Irvine voters with long memories.

Assemblyman Chuck DeVore
I would love to see Chuck DeVore take up the banner of conservatism and go at it hammer-and-tongs with Harman. DeVore is an aggressive campaigner who isn't afraid to wage a battle of ideas, and he's definitely the favorite of the OC blogosphere.

Some might say DeVore can't run for another office so soon after being elected to the Assembly, but John Campbell has been in the state Senate less than a year and that obviously didn't hurt his campaign for Congress.

The primary obstacle for DeVore is money -- his campaign kitty is virtually dry. However, if the forces of goodness rally to DeVore's standard, I'm confident DeVore could quickly raise the funds necessary to run a competitive race.

Scott Baugh
Baugh was close to entering this race at one point, and would have been the prohibitive favorite had he done so. As a committed conservative with a proven ability to work well with moderate GOPers, and who is strong with both activists and donors, Baugh would have put together the sort of right-center campaign that is practically unbeatable in Orange County.

But Baugh also has a toddler and wife whom he would hardly see for the next eight years if he ran and won, and so postponed ambition in favor of family (which is one of the qualities that make Baugh the kind of person you want in elected office).

Assemblywoman Mimi Walters
There's also been a great deal of buzz around the possibility of Mimi Walters entering the race. It's no secret Walters wants to ascend to the Senate, although he sights have been set on succeeding Dick Ackerman, in whose Senate district she lives. But as any number of OC legislators have proven, you don't have to live in a district in order to be elected by it.

Walters would be a formidable candidate. She's an incumbent and a woman. Like Baugh, she's a conservative GOP activist who appeals to moderate Republicans. She's smart , hard-working and can quickly amass a campaign war chest to match and then exceed Harman's. She's a proven vote-getter: as a private citizen she demolished Supervisor Tom Wilson to win the GOP primary for her Assembly seat.

There are other possible candidates such Kevin Hayes, the New Majority member about whom OCBJ Executive Editor Rick Reiff has written -- but I don't know enough about him to draw a conclusion about his credibility as a candidate.

All of the above Silva, DeVore and Walters are strong alternatives to Harman around whom conservatives could rally in good conscience. I hope one of them runs.

Comments

[Fred Aguirre]

Mimi Walters conservative???? Since when?

[Bear Brand]

Hate to be a buzz kill. But Walters didn't run as a private citizen. She was on the Laguna Niguel City Council.

So her name I.D. was a bit stonger than a person running off the street.

But to give her credit. She worked her 'you know what' off to garner the vote in the rest of the district. And did an outstanding job of getting a good portion of the SD county portion of the vote.

Plus she's a fellow Bruin.

[Jubal]

Bear Brand:

Thanks for the correction. It slipped my sleep mind at 6:00 a.m. this morning.

[Mark Brainard]

Have we written off Van Tran in the 35th? I haven't seen any movement that he is preparing to run against Umberg. I don't think Silva, Walters, or Baugh will run. Devore would be an interesting candidate. He has had success in the past being under funded and running to the right. However, his creditability is tarnished with his budget vote especially against Harman, who didn't vote for the budget. We all have read his lengthy explanation for the vote, but the voters won’t be as inclined to listen.

[Silence Dogood]

Mark-

If you were to reiterate arguments used on this blog for the last few months, one vote isn't reason enough to write someone off. Harman's horrific voting record over the past six years, combined with his union support make him very unattractive to conservatives.

Look at the timing of Harman's budget vote. It seems to suspiciously fall within the Supervisorial campaign season. Remember, at the time, Harman was running solely against John Moorlach, a good fiscal conservative, for County Supervisor. In other words, I believe the vote to be politically correct, not personally correct.

[Lionheart]

Didn't someone post a more complete list of candidates earlier?

Isn't Mimi Walters from Laguna Niguel?

[Mark Brainard]

Silence-
I agree with you that globally speaking Devore is more conservative than Harman. However, the budget is a big vote and if we (conservatives) put our hopes in Chuck, we need to keep in mind that he made himself vulnerable on that front.

[Intensified!]

Walters does live in Laguna Niguel and would have to carpetbag in order to run.

Baugh would be devestating and would clear the field. If he doesn't take a hit for the team today, does he deserve a Congressional seat when Rohrabacher retires?

DeVore is a natural if Baugh won't run.

There are plenty of other conservative local electeds and past legislators who should be recruited before looking outside the district.

What about Alexandria Coronado?

[Irvine GOPer]

Walters should be the first choice, she's conservative and has a great personality.

I wish Devore had not voted for the state budget - that was a really bad vote. But let's agree that the budget vote was a rookie mistake. Bottom line: Devore would be a much better Senator than liberal Tom.

[Silence Dogood]

Anon 7:25 PM-

I have heard Alexandria Coronado is certifiable - like pathological liar certifiable. Did I hear wrong?

[What did I hear?]

Anyone heard the rumor about Buck John's son-in-law Matt Holder getting ready to run for Senate against Tom Harman?

[ocrumormill]

Just in today -- Rumors have been circulating that Irvine's Christina Shea is interested in running ... she's a popular, conservative woman who lives in 35 SD ...