Some interesting political dynamics are emerging in the backwash of Todd Spitzer's reckless decision to challenge District Attorney Tony Rackauckas in 2006. Since Spitzer's D.A. campaign opens up his Assembly seat, candidates are cropping up as Spitzer's commitment to running against Rackauckas seems to harden.
Last Friday, GOP activist Mark Bucher of Tustin declared his intention of running for the 71st A.D. Two-term Mission Viejo City Councilman John Paul Ledesma is also telling people he is going to run, and Corona Councilman Jeff Miller is also expected to throw his hat into the ring.
And that is just for starters.
There are a million scenarios you could play out about who is the putative front-runner. Since the 71st AD is a mainly Orange County district, that would tend to favor a OC-based candidates. On the other hand, if there are several OC-based candidates, they could dilute the Orange County vote and allow Miller to run up the middle as Corona's favorite son.
Ledesma is a nice guy with name ID in Mission Viejo (and who knows, he might benefit from voter confusion with OUSD Trustee Rick Ledesma), but in person he just doesn't leave much of an impression. But being a city councilman in a divided city like Mission Viejo also 
hurts, since there are plenty of M.V. residents who don't care for him. Ledesma has also endorsed Spitzer's D.A. candidacy, which will complicate his efforts to attract support from the vast majority of elected officials, donors and activists who are backing Rackauckas.
Bucher will be a formidable candidate. While he's never held elective office, he has accumulated years of campaign experience helping school board candidates win election in the teeth of teachers union oppposition. He's Treasurer of the Republican Party of Orange County and oversaw their precinct organization in last years general election -- bothg of which will come in handy. He was also a co-author of paycheck protection initiative in 1998. While that ultimately went down onbder an avalanche of negative union ads, it is one of those tempering-in-the-fire experiences that better prepares a person for campaigns down the road.
Bucher is very energetic, organized and has the ability to put significant financial resources into his own campaign. The latter will come in handy during the next twelve months before filing closes, since raising money to run in the 71st AD will be problematic -- because Spitzer has 12 months to change his mind and run for re-election to the Assembly. That will cause a lot of potential donors to want to hold off endorsing or donating until closer to the filing deadline.
And don't forget the scenario of GOP candidates battling each other in OC while the non-OC candidate wins, just played out with Bob Huff winning an assembly seat.
Posted by: Publius | February 18, 2005 at 04:22 PM