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February 09, 2005


Not Today

I would not see a staff member stepping up to the role. Or even a former staff member.

Some people to consider:
Mark Murphy - Mayor of Orange

And I have heard that the Mayor of Corona is interested in the seat.

All in all the seat will be vacated in order for Spitzer to run, to the best of my understanding. So if he is running for D.A. he cannot run for the Assembly seat. Though we would think a potential 951er may take the spot, the fact that 70% of the district sits in the O.C. makes it unlikely.

Just to throw another one at you, what happens when the redistricting reform gets placed on the ballot, and if a deal with the devil is made in Sac, the likely hood of that passing is ever increasing (think term limit extension and redistricting; and a delay for redistricting congressional seats). Essentially a deal to make sure it all passes with no opposition. That could significantly change the district and leave the 71st looking like a whole new world.

Not Today

Something funny to ponder: Todd leaves his seat, Tony gives up on DA and runs for Assembly in '06. Gives Todd the DA race and wins the 71st.


Not Today makes several good points, especially that the 71st AD will be open if Spitzer stays in the D.A.'s race -- win or lose.


More than most OC legislators, Spitzer has several former staffers who remain active in local politics:

Orange City Councilman Steve Ambriz, and Orange County Water District Chairman Denis Biladeau,former Brea Councilman Steve Vargas, and Paul Hernandez of the Irvine Company.

Vargas doesn't live in the 71st AD (I think - these freaking lines don't make any sense), and I doubt Hernandez has any ambitions for higher office.

Biladeau would probably run -- but with him, you never know until the Registrar of Voters locks the doors at 5:00 p.m. on close of filing day.

Ambriz has ambitions, but I don't think they lie in Sacramento. He'll probably challenege Councilwoman Carolyn Cavecche for Mayor of Orange in 2006, when Mark Murphy is termed out.

Which leads to another possible scenario: assuming Spitzer stays in the DA race, Cavecche might opt to run for his Assembly seat, instead of Mayor. Her political ambitions transcend the City of Orange, and this path would out her ahead of schedule for higher office. Then she could do the Assembly thing until Bill Campbell is termed out, and then run for his Supervisorial seat.

Not Today

Cavecche, good possibility, she has been everywhere lately. And in my opinion a good candidate for the seat with a wider appeal than most.

There is also a rumor that someone from Mission Viejo will run.


Gail Reevis from Mission Viejo and John Paul LeDesma are two people to watch here. Spitzer does not have any current staffers that can run and out of the former staffers mentioned above probably only Biladeau would think of it. Back to the main point, if you have 3-4 OC people in and one strong 951er the seat goes to Riverside. You must remember the largest seat in the District is Corona and the people out there have felt very neglected for the last two years.

You also need to remember with the Primary pushed back to June of '06 it gives people plenty of time to decide to run or not, including Spitzer

Not Today

CD: Good point with splitting the vote. Something the party has yet to catch on to. And thanks for the Mission Viejo names. Deffinitely a race to watch.

Not Today


Check it out.

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