Word on the street is that sometime during the next few days, Assemblyman Todd Spitzer is going too announce his intention to challenge District Attorney Tony Rackauckas in 2006.
It isn't surprising that Spitzer intends to run against Rackauckas. After all, he's been criticizing Rackauckas relentlessly for months now, going so far as trying to cut out his own county from a law enforcement pilot program becasue he didn't like the way the D.A. had administered it.
The baffling part is what motivates Spitzer to run for District Attorney in the first place. It's an open secret the hyper-ambitious Spitzer plans to run for President one day. He has even plotted out a year-by-year, elected office-by-elected office plan for when he will reach the Oval Office. Sptizer's already hop-scotched from school board to OC Board of Supervisors to state Assembly. Since he exudes statewide ambitions from every pore, why would he want to step back down to a local elected office?
After all, who was the last politician to vault from a county-wide office -- be it sheriff, D.A. or supervisor -- to a statewide office? If anybody knows, please clue me in because I can't think of a single instance in the last thirty years. Dianne Feinstein went from mayor of San Francsico to U.S. Senator, but she's more of the exception who proves the rule.
The tried and true path is moving from Congress or the state legislature to a statewide office. Every current state constitutional officer (except Arnold, another exception who proves the rule) entered office directly from the legislature, or were self-funding multimillionaires (Garamendi fits this rule as a former legislature and Insurance Commissioner).
Sptizer has amassed a war-chest that is more than sufficient to prevail in a GOP primary, and I doubt any potential GOP opponent can match him in ability to generate free media.
Spitzer's 2006 options include running for any one of several open constitutional offices, or running for Senate GOP Leader Dick Ackerman's seat (Ackerman will be termed out). The latter gives Spitzer eight more years to build a warchest that scares off potential opponents, gain allies by raising money for other candidates -- and of course, make headlines and ratchet himself into as many news stories as humanly possible.
That would make sense. But Spitzer has a weird kamikaze streak that impels him to inexplicable acts of rashness. Frankly, challenging Rackauckas would be a fools errand. Rackauckas smashed Wally Wade by 20 points in 2002, despite months of intensely negative media coverage. Since then, Rackauckas has been getting progressively better coverage. Instead of passively ignoring negative news stories, Rackauckas aggressively responds to them. The plain fact is that as long as crime is low, voters generally don't dump incumbent District Attorneys. There's certainly no history of it in Orange County.
If Spitzer runs against Rackauckas, I predict he will run into a buzz-saw. Spitzer hasn't had a serious opponent since besting Mickey Conroy in 1996 (and it's debatable whether Conroy falls into the "serious" category). The entire county establishment -- Republican and Democrat -- will circle the wagons around Rackauckas -- in no small part because the thought of a District Attorney Todd Spitzer is a terrifying one. As a reader said to me in an e-mail some months ago, "Remember what Spitzer was like on the Board of Supervisors? Just imagine if he'd had the power to subpoena and arrest people." Frankly, I and many other political observers wouldn't put it past Spitzer to use the powers of the D.A.'s office to harass people simply to grab headlines. I think campaign finance crank Shirley Grindle is the only person who thinks that would be a good thing.
A sobering thought that will not be far from the minds of OC politerati should Spitzer run for D.A.