So, only 46% of OC voters would vote to re-authorize Measure M, according to an new Cal State Fullerton Poll sponsored by the Orange County Business Council (I tried in vain to find it on OCBC's crappy website. Maybe e you'll have better luck). That's 20 points short of the necessary two-thirds majority.
Man, I'll bet those numbers sent a chill through the collective spine of the OCTA leadership. And they're at odds with another Cal State Fullerton poll from late August showing 69% of Orange Countians supporting light rail.
Now, how do 69% of OC residents support a massively expensively light-rail system, yet only 46% support the sales tax necessary to fund such a system.
The obvious conclusion is this overwhelming support for CenterLine is ephemeral. It doesn't cost anything to tell a pollster you think it would be neat to have a subway system criss-crossing Orange County. But if you asked them to fork over more than $1 billion to build a choo-choo from the Civic Center to the outskirts of Irvine, you'll probably get a different answer.
In any case, this new poll doesn't bode well for CenterLine and its cadre of devotees at OCTA. The feds just pulled the plug on $50 to complete the system's design. The new OCTA chairman is Supervisor Bill Campbell, a confirmed opponent of the Folly Trolley. New board member Curt Pringle is philosophically opposed to CenterLine.
On the other hand, Cassie De Young lost her seat on the OCTA Board. She was one of the few board members who was not a CenterLine zombie, and had pushed to put it on the ballot.
Back to Measure M, however. Since it funds 67% of OCTA's budget, loss of Measure M would cripple the agency. Bill Campbell is correct when told the Left Angeles Times that Measure M is "Orange County's way of controlling it's own destiny for transportation."
As I have written in the past, one would think OCTA would do everything in its power to generate public support for Measure M's re-authorization. The fanatical devotion to building CenterLine will not build that support, and speaking as someone who supports re-authorizing Measure M, that fanaticism will doom M.
My guess it is Art Leahy and his cadre of rail-o-phile senior staff are unjustifiably mesmerized by polls showing big support for CenterLine -- a willful gullibility fed by their personal and professional stake building at least part of a rail system in OC. It's like that poster Fox Mulder had on his office wall in The X-Files: "I Want To Believe." The top staff at OCTA want to believe Orange Countians support CenterLine. The alternative is too much for them to bear.
I don't see much sign the nominal spokesgroup for the OC business community grasps this reality either. Commenting on the new poll's anemic support for Measure M renewal, OCBC CEO (and former OCTA CEO) Stan Oftelie said:
"The apparent drop in Orange County support is puzzling in light of the extraordinary success of similar county ballot measures in San Bernardino, San Mateo and Costa Mesa [??? - ed] counties."
I think Stan meant Contra Costa County. Besides getting his counties mixed up, Oftelie seems to think your average Orange County resident spends any time thinking about transportation taxes in other California counties, let alone about whether or not they are extraordinarily successful. You ask OCers if they want to keep a tax, and they are likely to say, "No!"
Leahy displayed some glimmerings of understanding this when he commented:
"Voters in Orange County are conservative. they are a show-me county. they expect to know where their money is going before they approve it."
You're almost there, Art. It's only a short leap from there to understanding that if you tell Orange County taxpayers that there tax dollars are going to fund a hugely expensive light-rail system that will have virtually zero impact on freeway congestion, and will get more people out of OCTA buses than out of cars...let's just say that nowhere near a two-thirds majority is going to sign that check.
On the other hand, were OCTA to present them with some really bitchin' transportation infrastructure projects, like extending the 57 Freeway down to the 405, or double-decking freeways, then you might get them to go for it. And when there's no place left to pour concrete and asphalt -- then go and ask taxpayers to fund CenterLine.
Maybe this is the advice OCTA is getting from California Strategies. Maybe not. it's what I'd tell them. But what do I know?