OC Blog

Rick Reiff On The 48th CD Special Election

Orange County Business Journal Executive Editor Rick Reiff is a clear-headed, economic conservative not prone to alarmism or over-heated rhetoric -- which makes his commentary on the results of the 48th CD special election (published in the current OCBJ) worth reading:

Congress, Immigration

By Rick Reiff

Orange County Business Journal Staff

JOHN CAMPBELL WON THE RUNOFF IN THE FORTY-EIGHTH Congressional District for the “Chris Cox seat.” It was no surprise. But it’s still welcome news for business.

Campbell, like the man he replaces, is a fiscal hawk, a champion of entrepreneurs and a foe of burdensome government. On key votes regarding taxes, the economy and most anything else, it probably will seem like Cox never left.

In fact, some observers have called Campbell a “Cox clone,” a term not always meant flatteringly but embraced nonetheless by Campbell, even if it misses the nuances.

Yes, both are Republican, conservative, bright, preppy, USC-graduated and professionally pedigreed (law for Cox, accounting for Campbell). Both are excellent writers who like to have their opinions published.

But Cox is a powerful and patient intellectual who loves finding bipartisan consensus. His biggest congressional victories—a moratorium on Internet taxes, a phasing out of the death tax, a clampdown on trial lawyers—were brilliantly conceived, slowly achieved and often qualified.

Campbell is less patient, even hyper at times. Where Cox is an eloquent speaker, Campbell is non-stop. As a state lawmaker, Campbell has been less about consensus than confrontation, though that may owe in part to the leftist leadership he has had to contend with.

But Campbell also may prove a little bolder than Cox, who was cautious to a fault. Campbell was among the first lawmakers to back the Gray Davis recall, with money as well as words. Even his decision to run for Congress was quick and emphatic, clearing the decks of serious challengers.

More John Fund On The 48th CD Special Election

John Fund has more commentary on the 48th CD special election in today's Political Diary:

Deconstructing a Bellwether

Yesterday's posting on how Congress will react to news that Jim Gilchrist, founder of the Minuteman citizens' border patrol, won 25% of the vote in a special House election in Orange County drew a fair bit of attention.

My contention was that the anemic victory by John Campbell, the GOP state senator who won 44% of the vote (a Democrat winning most of the rest), will damage chances of Congress passing President Bush's plan for a guest-worker program to regularize the hiring of immigrant laborers. I support a well-designed guest-worker program, but I also recognize political reality. House Democrats have adopted a strategy of voting as a bloc against every significant Bush legislative proposal in hopes of creating gridlock and prompting voters to throw the GOP out of power next year. The Gilchrist showing in Orange County will lead many Republicans to vote against ANY guest-worker program for fear of being demagogued on the issue.

Some observers noted that polls continue to show only a small minority of voters are so focused on immigration that they vote solely on that basis. Turnouts in special elections are notoriously low and not a true reflection of public opinion. Orange County is a hotbed of concern over illegal immigration since it is only a two-hour drive from the Mexican border. That level of angst isn't found in most Congressional districts.

All of the above is true. But the fact remains that the Orange County results are already being viewed as a tipping point and will have an impact beyond the limited meaning of the actual numbers. Here, briefly, are my reasons:

The real shocker from the election is the fact that Mr. Gilchrist, the Minuteman activist, won the largest number of votes actually cast on Election Day. Mr. Campbell only won because of the hundreds of thousands of dollars he spent getting people to fill out absentee ballots and "banking" them. On Election Day, Mr. Campbell won only 30% of the vote, the Democratic candidate won 32% and Mr. Gilchrist won 35%. Mr. Gilchrist ran an abysmal campaign, spending his money on radio ads whose audience largely lived outside the district and ignoring absentee voters and grassroots targeting. Noting that a majority of the votes cast were absentee ballots, political consultant Chuck Muth observes that "the Gilchrist campaign simply didn't show up for the first half of the game."

The lesson from the Orange County results is that President Bush was wise to discuss combining better enforcement measures with a guest-worker program in his recent speeches along the border. The House is scheduled to vote today on a bill that would tighten employer sanctions and make it easier to deport criminal aliens. That will pass overwhelmingly. But the issue of illegal immigration will only be adequately dealt with when enforcement is combined with a workable guest-worker program.

There is a precedent for real progress on the border issue. The Bracero Program, which allowed foreign workers easier access to U.S. agriculture and construction employment in the 1950s and 1960s, worked. Arrests of illegal immigrants fell from 885,587 in 1953 to 45,336 in 1959 -- a 95% drop. Then, in 1964, President Lyndon Johnson bowed to labor union pressure and killed the Bracero Program. Arrests at the border promptly increased from 86,597 in 1964 to 875,915 in 1976, and have been inching up every year since.

The Bracero Program wasn't perfect. Some workers were exploited and there were abuses. But it demonstrated that when enforcement is combined with a legal path to work, problems at the border can be controlled. That's the message President Bush has to drive home. If he finds it necessary to take a broad guest-worker program off the table to avoid it being caught up in next year's overheated election rhetoric, so be it. It would be better to educate the public on the issue and try to pass a limited program affecting only agricultural workers than risk another major policy fumble such as Social Security. For the next year, too many members of Congress are going to be distracted by anti-immigration activists such as Jim Gilchrist and liberals who want to deny Mr. Bush any kind of legislative success.

Political Diary is a tremendous deal. For the monthly cost of a coffee at Starbucks, you get a daily dose of top-notch political news and analysis from across the country. I highly recommend subscribing.

Blogosphere Reaction To 48th CD Results

Here are some reactions from the blogosphere to the results of yesterday's 48th CD special election:

Hugh Hewitt:

Here are the vote totals.

Compare tonight's vote with the special election primary vote.

Then look at the general election from 2004, where Chris Cox rolled up 189,004 votes, and his opponent John Graham (a friend of mine and a very smart guy whom the Dems would have been wise to run again this time) tallied 93,525 votes.

What to conclude? Despite massive media attention and around-the-clock boosterism from local radio flaks and know-nothings John & Ken, the candidacy of anti-illegal immigration single issue candidate Jim Gilchrist could only muster 23,237 votes --less than one third of the Graham vote in November of 2004. No "Minuteman" candidate will ever have more favorable conditions than this special election, and still the Minuteman candidate failed miserably. As will a Congressman Tancredo if he mounts a "run" for the presidency.

Read the rest of Hugh's post here.

Jon Fleischman at FlashReport.org:

All of the 'spin' on this race is that somehow the results, one way or another, would send some sort of national message on immigration reform issues.  I would submit to you that both Campbell and Gilchrist were running to the far-right on this particular issue - so I guess the news is that over 70% of voters in this special election cast their ballot for a candidate that wants a much stronger policy against illegal immigrants, both at the border as well as those currently residing in the U.S.

Read the rest of Jon's commentary here.

Allan Bartlett at Powder Blue Report:

Tonight there was a message sent to President George W Bush and the open border GOP establishment. Any immigration bill with "guest worker", undocumented worker, day laborer or any any other semantical form of amnesty is DOA, end of story. A band of rag tag but dedicated Jim Gilchrist volunteers beat the Orange County GOP's vaunted election day GOTV operation and what do I read on places like OC Blog and others.......pure arrogance from the establishment GOP consultants/hacks. Try being a little more humble. Your open border lapdog new Congressman just got held to a whopping 44% of the vote and it's apt to go down further when all the outstanding votes are counted. I think I'm going to take a page out of Jim Rome's playbook and gloss(that's short for glossary) John Campbell.....John "44%" Campbell. It really was an amazing night.

The rest of Allan's musings here.

You can visit this Technorati search for a sampling of reaction by various and sundry blogs.

48th CD Special Election Wrap-Up

The election is over and John Campbell has won a decisive victory. The Gilchrist zombies are already chanting their "losing-is-really-winning" mantra, claiming that "holding" Campbell to less than 50% is a "moral victory" that "sends a message" to Washington. I suppose they're still working on explaining how going from 2nd place in the primary to 3rd place in the general behind a Democrat who wants to let illegals into the country is a "moral victory." But, apparently the conventional rules of logic hold no power on the other side of the looking glass.

Perhaps a side-by-side comparison of the October 4 and December 6 elections will be illuminating.

October 4 Primary

Total Registered Voters      402,006                                                                  
Precinct Registration          402,006
Precinct Ballots Cast            33,547                8.3%                                        
Early Ballots Cast                     964                0.2%                                        
Absentee Ballots Cast          57,200                14.2%                                        
Total Ballots Cast                91,711                2.8%

John Campbell (REP)           41,420                45.5%
Marilyn C. Brewer (REP)       15,595                17.1%
Jim Gilchrist (AI)                13,423                14.8%
Steve Young (DEM)                7,941                 8.7%

December 6 General Election

Total Registered Voters      405,655   
Precinct Registration          405,655
Precinct Ballots Cast             34,844                8.6%
Early Ballots Cast                        28                0.0%
Absentee Ballots Cast            58,266             14.4%
Total Ballots Cast                  93,138             23.0%

John Campbell (REP)              41,450             44.7%
Steve Young (DEM)                 25,926             28.0%
Jim Gilchrist (AI)                   23,237              25.1%
Bea Tiritilli (GRN)                    1,242               1.3%
Bruce Cohen (LIB)                       880               0.9%

Some observations:

1) Defying predictions, turnout yesterday was slightly higher than on October 4. The breakdown of absentees versus precinct ballots was virtually identical.

2) Campbell's vote total was practically unchanged from the October 4 primary, while Young increased his by nearly 18,000 votes and Gilchrist by nearly 10,000 votes. It seems Young garnered most of the Democrat votes that went for Brewer, Graham, Foster and Pallow in October, while Gilchrist presumably picked up a share of Brewer's voters and the loose change from the rest of the October candidate herd.

3) I was surprised that Campbell didn't do better. I was expecting his percentage to land in the mid-50s. Obviously, illegal immigration is a powerful issue -- and one (I think) that is magnified by a low-turnout special election.

3) Gilchrist did exceptionally well for a third party candidate in terms of fund-raising and attracting votes.

4) Steve Young's dramatic increase from the primary to the general is not so dramatic when you conisder he failed to beat the Democratic nominee's showing in in that district for the last three general elections: John Graham received 32.2% in 2004, 28.4% in 2002 and 30.1% in 2000.

The Gilchrist crowd can crow about their "moral victory" (interesting that only in the last couple of days did the Gilchrist zombies start saying they would consider holding Campbell below 50% was the benchmark for a Gilchrist "moral victory"), but which candidate is flying to Washington DC to be sworn in as a Congressman?

Losing is losing, and the hard truth is Gilchrist was beaten by nearly 20,000 votes. Now that we have departed the strange special election universe for the normal environment of a regular elections, you will see Congressman Campbell winning easy victories in the June and November 2006 elections.

 

John Campbell Wins

The absentee results are in, and to no ones surprise, John Campbell wins:

John Campbell:   30895      53.2 %

Steve Young:      14,697     25.3%

Jim Gilchrist:      10,944    18.8%

Bea Tirtilli:              915     1.1%

Bruce Cohen:           644    1.6%

Geez. Gilchrist is behind Steve Young.

Of the 48th CD's 405,655 registered voters,   58,266 of them -- or 14.4% -- cast their ballots by absentee. Given that total turnout  won't be much higher than this, this contest is effectively over.

FR Blogger Adam Probolsky concurs: "I guess the Minute Man has had his 15 already."

Stop The Presses! Power Blue Report Predicts A Gilchrist Victory!

Over at Powder Blue Report, Allan Bartlett posts a column he published on the California Republic, and ventures this astounding prediction for tonight's election:

I think Jim is going to shock people tonight with his showing. My prediction is:

• Gilchrist 38%

• Campbell 37%

• Young 23%

• Cohen 1%

• Tiritilli 1%

Clearly, Allan will not win an OC Blog coffee mug -- although I suspect Phil Paule may have spiked Allan's drinking water with a hallucinogenic.

48th CD Predictions

Well, here we are -- another election, another OC Blog election results prediction contest. As always, the winner will have his or her choice of an attractive OC Blog coffee mug or beer stein.

Rules: Give your vote predictions for John Campbell, Steve Young and Jim Gilchrist. Whoever comes closest, wins.

UPDATE: In order to avoid duplications and ties, your predictions must include tenths-of-a-percent, i.e. 65.3% for Campbell.

Left Blogosphere On CA-48 Election: Hitting The Road To Dreamland

Political Dogfight proprietor Stuart O'Neill, when not dissing OC Blog on Daily Kos, is spinning a political fantasy entitled "Steve Young Gets Elected To Congress":

Steve Young has more than a long shot at CA-48

Yesterday, DavidNYC, from SwingStateProject put the race on the frontpage of DailyKos and at last count before DKos crashed we had 128 comments. Of course the crash had to happen while we were red hot! :))

One of the solid House analyst's is Superribbie [This won't be available until dKos is back up] and his analysis of the race, based on pure mathematics, (assuming a voting pattern similar to the Primary), showed  us coming in with 41%, Campbell 39% and Gilchrist 20%.

My personal analysis is a little different as I think Gilchrist will score better changing the numbers. But we are on TV this weekend and Monday/Tuesday as well as having our live figures, like on the website, in the OC Register! Those figures drive a tremendous amount of traffic to the site.

What do we need today, Saturday? We need even more cash. While the last FEC report hasn't showed the Net contributions, which have really poured in the last 11 days, the more we can raise this weekend the more confident we are in increasing our Media (TV and Newspaper) buys right up to 8 PM Tuesday when the polls close! So whether the cash can reach us that fast isn't the issue. The issue is that the cash is in the pipeline!

So dig deep readers and do your best to support this worthy candidate with your hard earned money.

You can read the rest here.

Still, I give Young credit for coming up with an intriguing proposal for regularizing the flow of illegal immigrants and generating federal revenues from it. I don't think it's practicable, but at least it's original.

And we can at least look forward to being liberated from that accursed cyber-Steve haunting the OC Register website.

Jim Gilchrist's Still Viewing The World Through Rollerball-Colored Glasses

A young blogger named Robbie Haglund here in Orange County posted today about Jim Gilchrist's visit last night to his California Government class at Irvine Valley College.

Haglund aptly captures the essential Jim Gilchrist:

Perhaps the most compelling statement of the evening was the “Rollerball explains it all” theory. Speaking of the 1975 science fiction movie in which the world of the future is controlled by corporations rather than countries, Gilchrist enlightened us as to the prophetic vision this movie portrayed of our dissolving borders. “It dawned on me that the dissolving of our borders… now where have I seen this before? It was the movie Rollerball!” The sad part is, I’m not joking. That is a direct quote.

You should read the entire post here.  Robbie Haglund is a talented writer. I'm adding his blog to the blogroll and recommend making it a regular stop.

Holiday Madness, Or Shrinkage Of Support For Tom Harman?

Now that Assemblyman Tom Harman no longer appears to be a slam dunk for the 35th Senate special election, thanks to Diane Harkey's eruption into the race, are his supporters beginning to hedge their bets?

That was the first thought that crossed my mind after reading this e-mail from Roger Faubel, president of Faubel Public Affairs:

I wanted to let you know as soon as possible that the fundraiser for Assemblyman Tom Harman on Tuesday, November 29th, hosted by Faubel Public Affairs, has been postponed due to the busy holiday season and conflicting events.  Thanks and we'll be in touch.

Three possibilities leap to mind:

1) The explanation can be taken at face value (the Tuesday following Thanksgiving weekend isn't great timing for a fundraiser).

or

2) Attendance looked to be embarassingly sparse, so Faubel is buying some time to pump up the numbers.

or

3) Faubel is pondering jumping off the Harman bandwagon now that ole Tom seems to be running in place and the momentum increasingly shifts to Harkey. That kind of thing happens in the cruel world of politics, after all. Back in 2001, Faubel and then-partner Meg Waters were high-profile supporters of District Attorney challenger Wally Wade when he had loads of media momentum and Tony Rackauckas appeared headed to defeat. Fortunes in that race abruptly reversed in early 2002, and before the March primary arrived Waters & Faubel had abandoned the sinking S.S. Wally Wade.

I suppose all questions will be answered if the Harman fundraiser is re-scheduled.