Here's the link to the OC Registrar elections returns site for the 35th Senate District special elections.
If you are a true, he-man political junkie's political junkie, you will stare continuously at the countdown clock until the first returns are posted. And if you are an opportunistic fair-weather friend, you will then proceed to the election night party of the winning candidate.
Today's 35th SD special election was expected to be low turnout, and anecdotal evidence suggests that will indeed be the case.
A compadre de OC Blog e-mailed me this report:
At 12:20pm, I stopped by the voting location in Huntington Beach, a church off of Hamilton and Brookhurst.
4 total precincts were voting.
#32-354 - 30 people voted
#32-196 - 5 people voted
#32-415 - 29 people voted
#32-355 - 14 people voted
Additionally, 10 people walked in their absentee ballots and two voters voted provisional because they couldn't find their proper voting location.
As I was leaving, one person was arriving.
So, by 12:30pm, 4 precincts, 91 total votes.
PS, that was the voting precinct for Tom Harman's treasurer on Capistrano Way or what ever the address that's on some of his mailers...
We'll see what the after-work voting hours do for turn-out.
FR blogger Adam Probolsky and Powder Blue Report proprietor Allan Bartlett have their own turn out reports.
As has become our tradition in special elections, it's time for readers to post their predictions as to the outcome of today's special election in the 35th Senate District.
The prize: this handsome OC Blog coffee mug:
Post you prediction for the percentages received by Republicans Assemblyman Tom Harman, Dana Point Councilwoman Diane Harkey and Democrat Larry Caballero -- include the first decimal place in order to break any ties.
Good luck!
UPDATE: If you don't attach at least a psuedonym to your prediction, it will be disqualified.
I won't enter with specific numbers, but I'm predicting a Harkey win -- even if she loses the Election Day.
Dedication and a warrior-ethos are critical elements of a successful ground campaign.
Judging by this photo sent in by Harkey campaign operations manager Jim Camp of him and his fellow braves sporting "MoHarks," Duane Dicharia and Team Harman might want to hold on to their scalps.
That's Jim Camp on the left, by the way.
I just love it when non-Orange County political operatives pretend to be experts on Orange County politics.
Today's Martin Wisckol piece on the 35th SD special election is a case in point:
"We all know why the hardcore conservative Republicans are behind Harkey," said Allan Hoffenblum, whose Target Book handicaps elections in the state. "It's all about the past, nothing about now."
What do you mean "we", paleface?
Allan is speaking, of course, of the circumstances of Tom Harman's original election to the legislature in 2000, in which he took advantage of the blanket primary rules and a center-left Republicanism (courtesy of $300,000 in union IEs).
Allan's analysis is also uninformed, lazy and conceited. He took the easy quote.
No OC conservative activist that I know of wants Tom Harman in the legislature for eight more years. But the problem is no longer how Harman was elected, but what his legislative/political record as an Assemblyman has been, and the fact that he's still a center-left Republican.
Allan Hoffenblum has it precisely backwards: this is about the future -- the next eight years -- which would undoubtedly resemble the past six years.
Hoffenblum's conventional wisdom-mongering supports the premise of Martin's article: that there isn't any real difference between Tom Harman and Diane Harkey.
That's true from a simplistic legislative score card view point. But such scorecards don't take good account of Harman's environment-uber-alles philosophy: his hostility to property rights as a member of Amigos De Bolsa Chica, and his intellectually dishonest opposition to completion of the Foothill-South toll road.
In this political day and age, when staunch support for property rights has vanished from the Democratic Party and lost ground within the Republican Party, GOPers shouldn't nominate a standard-bearer who's believes environmental interests (as defined by the Environmental Left) trump the traditional functions of American government such as building infrastructure and securing our property rights.
It's also important to consider that Tom Harman hasn't lifted a finger to help Orange County Republicans since 2000. If he was more savvy or politically mature (or both), he would have let bygones be bygones and spent the last three terms mending fences. If he had done so, then maybe he'd have the endorsement of more than just a single OC Republican legislator. And if he was as conservative as he claims he is, the fence mending would have been very difficult.
Harman's decision to remain an OC political wallflower aside, I think Martin's article is wrong. There are indeed stark distinctions between Tom Harman and Diane Harkey in some vital areas. Some things are more important than other. And the quality of those distinctions -- the principles they turn on -- outweigh that they may not be great in quantity.
It's the final weekend for before the election -- traditonally the biggest mail days of a campaign (along with the preceding Thursday.
It's all for the Election Day voters, now. Given that the majority of votes cast in this special election will be absentees, the election may very well be over already -- recall that John Campbell won the 48th CD special election, even though he came in third among Election Day voters.
In any case, let's go to the mailbox:
Here's the CRA IE mailer against Tom Harman I posted about yesterday, designed by JohnsonClark Associates and printed by Bieber Communications.
And here (and here) is another CCPOA IE, plus the IE mail piece from the California Dental Association PAC (here and here) -- both advocating for Harman.
At least two other mail pieces hit today, although I only have one of them in hand to post. One is a letter in a #10 envelope from the CCPOA, asking the recipient to vote for Tom Harman.
And here is the other: a "Republican Voter News" tabloid from the CRA.
As for IEs reported, there's another $19,704 from the Alliance of Orange County Taxpayers against Harman (mail and costumes) and $2,2309 from the CA Dental PAC for Harman (phone banks).
Two more IE mailers hit 35th SD mailboxes today, although I don't have them to upload.
My sterling source in the streets informed me that in addition to the ones I've already posted today, there was another IE mailer from the Lincoln Club: "Compare the Candidate for State Senate. Check the facts before you vote." --with the comparison on the back side.
My source also told of an IE from the California Republican Assembly -- presumably paid for by the $20,000 expenditure posted in the Secretary of State website today.
It's a physically huge mailer: "Which Candidate Will Raise YOUR Taxes" and depicting a naked man in barrel (sounds like a Bieber Communications piece). The backside features a brief description of the CRA, compares the two candidates, mentions big labor unions and quote from Jon Coupal.
As for money spent, the CCPOA reported another $55,000 spent for Harman -- about $49,000 for mail and $5500 for phone banks (too bad it's not more Mark Herrick robo-calls). That brings IE expenditures on Harman's behalf to about $294,000 -- all but $75,000 from the CCPOA. I imagine a Senator Harman would be mighty hard pressed to vote against the prison guards should he be elected.
The California Dental Association PAC also did an $18,410 mailing for Tom Harman.
As Mentioned, the CRA reported a $20,000 expenditure against Harman.
The Tom Harman campaign dropped this piece today, asking the immortal question: "Why did the California Republican League give Diane Harkey an "F" on illegal immigration?"
The obvious answer is the CRL is a liberal shill for Tom Harman, but most 35th SD voters don't know that. Still, in the battle of endorsement mailers -- Mark Herrick and Mark Porter versus actual elected Republican leaders -- Harkey's will carry more weight than Harman's.
Although the Harman campaign has done a heck of a job raising Herrick's name ID.
The Diane Harkey campaign dropped another negative mailer on 35th SD voters, contrasting her conservative credentials with the public employee unions' determined efforts to elect Tom Harman.
Here is the mailer.
The Diane Harkey for Senate campaign dropped this mailer on 35th SD voters today.
Ouch. This one is gonna hurt.
