OC Blog

Tom Harman Does A Solid For The Unions

Thank you to Art Pedroza for bringing this to light over at Orange Juice:

Less than a week after ostensibly Republican Assemblyman Tom Harman beat Diane Harkey for the 35th Senate District, he added his name as a co-author to Assembly Bill 2929 - a measure designed to stop the establishment and growth of merit (non-union) apprenticeship programs!

Assembly Bill 2929 is backed by several pro-union liberal Democrats and it is the #1 bill being advanced by the unions in 2006 to attack the non-union shops. The bill would establish "severe and prohibitive new standards for the approval of Merit Shop apprenticeship programs" according to my sources in Sacramento. Opponents of the bill have been unable to find out why Harman is sponsoring a union bill meant to "stop competition and choice in training for a construction career." I however know why - it is quid pro quo. The unions are spending a ton of money on the campaign of Harman's wife, Diane, for the 67th Assembly District.

Opponents of the bill ask that Harman's constituents fax Harman’s district office at (714) 843-6375 and ask him to REMOVE his co-authorship of the unions’ apprenticeship attack bill Assembly Bill 2929.

You can read the rest of Art's post here.

Is this a preview of the next six-and-a-half years, Senator-elect Harman? I'd be interested in the comments of Mark Herrick and that other guy who relentlessly attested to Tom Harman's "conservative" credentials.

Harman Win Certified

Per the Register and Total Buzz this aft: Registrar certifies Harman win in 35th District. 

Harkey's campaign manager Scott Hart says "Most likely, we're going to request a full, hand recount."

35th SD Prediction Contest: And The Winner Is...

...Phil Paule!

His prediction -- 37.7% for Tom Harman and 39.3% Diane Harkey came closest on both sides to the final result of 38.8% for Tom Harman and 38.5% for Diane Harkey.

Congratulations, Phil. Enjoy your new OC Blog coffee -- your morning coffee will taste better than ever.

John Seiler On Why Harman Won

OCR senior editorialist blogged an interesting post to Orange Punch regarding the outcome of the 35th Senate District special election:

Why Harman won -- despite being outspent

By: John Seiler

Martin Wisckol today reports that Harkey spent $33 per vote to Harman's $21 per vote in last week's state Senate race. Yet Harman won. Why?

Well, I'm in that district and I got about 5 Harman mail pieces but only one from Harkey. That may be because I'm "decline to state" and not a Republican, as are most people in the district.

You can read the rest here.

OC Blogpourri: 35th SD Cliffhanger Edition

How about a quick jog around the OC blogosphere for a sampling of reporting and reaction to the unbelievably close 35th Senate District special election?

Allan Bartlett gives an account of the Diane Harkey election night party over at Powder Blue Report, while public affairs guru Laer Pearce provides his reaction to this blow to liberty-oriented Republicanism in a snappily-written post to his snappily-written blog Cheat Seeking Missiles.

Total Buzz has lots of posts -- here and here and here and here and here and here. I especially enjoyed the posts about the scene at the OC Registrar's today. Been there, done that, don't ever want to do it again. Nail-biters are fun to watch, but not be a part of.

1:24 A.M. Harman Maintains Sliver Of A Lead

We now have 69.02% of precincts reporting in, and Harman has actually widened his lead by 45 votes:

Tom Harman              31,713      38.66%
Diane Harkey             31,229    38.07%
Larry Caballero        19,078    23.26%

Harman: Saved By The Bell?

It's still too close to call it for Tom Harman -- the way things are going this election could be decided by 100 votes or less -- which would make it recount time.

I'm struck by how closely Tom Harman's and Larry Caballero's election percentages track with the two Tarrance Group polls released by the Tom Harman campaign.

Here are the February 19-20 poll numbers:

Tom Harman: 37%
Larry Caballero: 23%
Diane Harkey: 16%

And the March 21-22 poll numbers:

Tom Harman:    38%
Larry Caballero:    25%
Diane Harkey:    23%

And now the actual numbers (as of now with ABs and 38.49% of precincts reporting):

Tom Harman: 38.43%
Diane Harkey: 37.83%
Larry Caballero: 23.74%

Harman and Caballero are ending up almost exactly where they were in late February, while Harkey more than doubled her support in seven weeks.

As I had blogged in the past, time was Tom Harman's enemy. Clearly the momentum has been with Harkey, and she may yet have enough to push her over the finish line. As FR Blogger Adam Probolsky points out, there are 5,000 ABs yet to be counted.

But if Harman ultimately edges out Diane Harkey, he can thank the Lord above this election was held today and not April 18. Although it is not the Lord to whom he will be indebted.

Harman Still Leading -- By Less Than An Eyelash

According to the most recent returns, Diane Harkey has picked up a 233 votes since the first absentees came in, with almost 40% of precincts reporting -- but Tom Harman still holds on to a 439 vote margin.

Tom Harman         28,020   38.43%
Diane Harkey         27,581   37.83%
Larry Caballero      17,305    23.74%

This is has been fascinating and confounding election watch. The conventional wisdom going into this evening -- to which I subcribed -- was the absentees vote would favor Harkey, and the Election Day vote would favor Harman. It appears it's been the other way around: Harman came head slightly ahead in the ABs, and Harkey inches upward as additonal Election Day votes are tallied.

I can't access the OC Registrar's website for some reason, so I don't know whether or not Huntington Beach precincts have come in yet. If they have Harkey is defintiely in the hunt -- if they haven't, Harman will likely hold onto his eyelash-thin lead.

UPDATE: Here's some analysis by FR Blogger Adam Probolsky.

35th SD Turnout: How Low Can You Go?

I just got off the phone with Jimmy Camp, campaign operations manager for the Harkey campaign.

He has poll checkers throughout the 35th SD, and here are the turnout numbers he's getting:

Costa Mesa
10.3% Absentee
3.5% Election Day

Irvine
15% Absentee
3.6% Election Day

Fountain Valley
11.7% Absentee
5.9% Election Day

I forgot to get Huntington Beach before I got off the phone.

Keep in mind these AB numbers are from the end-of-the-day yesterday -- they don't take into account ABs that arrived by hand or in the mail today.

If these numbers are accurate, we could be looking at around a 16% turnout for this special election. Upshot: if Harkey is leading the absentees by 10%, Harman will need to win by 20% on Election Day to pull this out.

We'll know in less than 20 minutes.

Another 35th SD Turnout Report

Here's another 35th SD special election turnout report from our man-on-the-scene:

Jubal,

Here's another precinct in HB.  Boys and Girls Club at Magnolia and Pioneer Dr.  This is a High GOP Propensity area.

This was at 4pm.

Precinct 32-146 - 20 voters

Precinct 32-149 - 13 voters

Precinct 32-205 - 14 voters

12 voters brought in Absentee Ballots

I went to four other locations and this seems to be the average turnout.

Cheers!