SD33 Watch: By The Numbers Update
It's been almost six-months since we've done a "by-the-numbers" post on the battle for SD33's GOP nomination, so time for an update. The contenders are Assemblywoman Mimi Walters and Anaheim Councilman Harry Sidhu.
The previous post in May compared registered voters with likely voters in a city-by-city breakdown of the district. Since the likely low turnout of the June primary will elevate the already critical role of absentee voters, I thought it would be illuminating to profile the SD33 GOP electorate through the lens of the permanent absentee voter population.
There are 259,907 Republican voters in the 33rd Senate District. Of those, 89,867 -- or 34.6% -- are PAVs.
Here is a city-by-city breakdown of 259,907 registered GOP voters (I got these numbers last week from the Registrar of Voters):
City Republican Voters % of District GOP Voters
Aliso Viejo 12,277 4.7%Anaheim 21,896 8.4%
Buena Park 2,435 0.94%
Fullerton 27,403 10.5%
Irvine 7,046 2.7%
Laguna Hills 9,383 3.6%
Laguna Niguel 20,874 8.0%
Laguna Woods 6,743 2.6%
Lake Forest 22,107 8.5%
Mission Viejo 31,768 12.2%
Orange 33,072 12.7%
Rancho Santa Margarita 15,093 5.8%
San Clemente 1,368 0.5%
Santa Ana 3,699 1.4%
Tustin 14,264 5.5%
Villa Park 2,974 1.1%
Unincorporated 27,505 10.6%
The North-South split favors South County. Assuming the unincorporated voters are all South County residents, the actual split is 59/41 in favor of the South County portion of the district.
Let's see how the distribution shifts when just PAVs are taken into account:
City Republican PAVs % of District GOP PAVs
Aliso Viejo 3,686 4.1%Anaheim 7,224 8.0%
Buena Park 644 0.72%
Fullerton 8,720 9.7%
Irvine 2,838 3.2%
Laguna Hills 3,135 3.5%
Laguna Niguel 7,919 8.8%
Laguna Woods 3,963 4.4%
Lake Forest 7,050 7.8%
Mission Viejo 10,991 12.2%
Orange 11,351 12.6%
Rancho Santa Margarita 4,401 4.9%
San Clemente 617 0.7%
Santa Ana 1,355 1.5%
Tustin 4,770 5.3%
Villa Park 1,077 1.2%
Unincorporated 10,108 11.2%
The PAV filter tilts the GOP vote a tad more heavily in South County's favor: a 61/39 split. To the extent the race takes on a North-South coloration, it obviously favors Walters.
Walters Has More On The Line
Assemblywoman Walters has
more at stake than Councilman Sidhu in this sense: elected in 2004, she's foregoing a
third term in the Assembly to take a shot at the Senate seat. In other
words, if she loses the primary, she's out of office come December 2008.
Harry Sidhu, on the other hand, has a free ride. If he loses the June primary, he still has time to file for re-election to Anaheim City Council in November.
Sidhu for Mayor of Anaheim?
But would Sidhu run for
re-election? Under Anaheim's bizarre term limits ordinance, if Sidhu is
re-elected to City Council, he'll be prohibited from running for Mayor
when incumbent Curt Pringle is termed out in 2010.
It's no secret Sidhu covets the Mayor's seat. He signaled his interest in 2006 when he felt out the feasibility of challenging Pringle's bid for re-election. Polling made clear running against Pringle ould be political suicide, so Sidhu pulled back.
But in the wake of a SD33 primary defeat, my money is on Sidhu foregoing re-election to council so he can run for the open Mayor's seat to years later.
That, in turn, would set up a bruiser with Councilwoman Lucille Kring, who has her eyes fixed on the same prize. Kring ran for Mayor in 2002 but was defeated by Curt Pringle.
I give the edge to Harry over Lucille. Lucille can't decide who's side she's on half the time.
Posted by: Anaheim politico | November 26, 2007 at 09:55 PM