Harman: Saved By The Bell?

It's still too close to call it for Tom Harman -- the way things are going this election could be decided by 100 votes or less -- which would make it recount time.

I'm struck by how closely Tom Harman's and Larry Caballero's election percentages track with the two Tarrance Group polls released by the Tom Harman campaign.

Here are the February 19-20 poll numbers:

Tom Harman: 37%
Larry Caballero: 23%
Diane Harkey: 16%

And the March 21-22 poll numbers:

Tom Harman:    38%
Larry Caballero:    25%
Diane Harkey:    23%

And now the actual numbers (as of now with ABs and 38.49% of precincts reporting):

Tom Harman: 38.43%
Diane Harkey: 37.83%
Larry Caballero: 23.74%

Harman and Caballero are ending up almost exactly where they were in late February, while Harkey more than doubled her support in seven weeks.

As I had blogged in the past, time was Tom Harman's enemy. Clearly the momentum has been with Harkey, and she may yet have enough to push her over the finish line. As FR Blogger Adam Probolsky points out, there are 5,000 ABs yet to be counted.

But if Harman ultimately edges out Diane Harkey, he can thank the Lord above this election was held today and not April 18. Although it is not the Lord to whom he will be indebted.

Comments

70% counted and he is still up by 484.

Looks bad.

So, at $29 per vote all she had to do was spend an extra $15,000 (that would give her a small margin)

It is too bad, I would have liked to see Harkey win.

nice trend breakdown. hat tip to you jubal. it speaks volumes. i dont like harkey but i have to agree that if it was on the 18th she would win.

You can 'what if' all you want.

But Harman is ahead. And that is what counts.

[SOC Watcher]

Jubal,

Given your poll analysis above, and the fact that the remaining approximate 5,000 absentees and provisionals are certainly late ballots, is it not within the relm of possibility that Harkey could in fact overtake Harman? If the poll trend really is correct, then the 500 vote differential is certainly not insurmaountable.

[Jubal]

Possible? Yes.

Probable? I'm not a statistician, but I'd say no.

But I hope I'm wrong.

[garson]

I know the Lord personally, and he doesn't want thanks. He just wants your money.