35th SD Turnout: How Low Can You Go?

I just got off the phone with Jimmy Camp, campaign operations manager for the Harkey campaign.

He has poll checkers throughout the 35th SD, and here are the turnout numbers he's getting:

Costa Mesa
10.3% Absentee
3.5% Election Day

Irvine
15% Absentee
3.6% Election Day

Fountain Valley
11.7% Absentee
5.9% Election Day

I forgot to get Huntington Beach before I got off the phone.

Keep in mind these AB numbers are from the end-of-the-day yesterday -- they don't take into account ABs that arrived by hand or in the mail today.

If these numbers are accurate, we could be looking at around a 16% turnout for this special election. Upshot: if Harkey is leading the absentees by 10%, Harman will need to win by 20% on Election Day to pull this out.

We'll know in less than 20 minutes.

Comments

[Historian]

And now the dive bombers appear over the helpless Akagi-bago...

[Gorillaz]

It's coming up,
It's coming up,
It's coming up,
It's coming up,
It's coming up,
It's coming up.

It's DARE

[It's Dare]

TOM HARMAN (REP) 24402 38.7%
DIANE HARKEY (REP) 23730 37.6%
LARRY CABALLERO (DEM) 14960 23.7%

[Jerry Grunor]

Last week, I predicted 35% for Harkey and a 45% for Harman with a 20% for Caballero. I will stay the course. There would be a run-off in June and the winner will receive 60% (Harman) vs 40% (Caballero). For a candidate who did not invest any monies in this campaign, congratulations on his doing better than many people had expected. He did not talk down to the other candidates as Harman and Harkey did to each other. Just another day in sunny California.