This survey of 459 registered "likely" voters was taken on February 19-20.
The ballot test: TOM HARMAN: 37% LARRY CABALLERO: 23% (Dem) DIANE HARKEY: 16% UNDECIDED: 20%
Name identification: HARMAN: 76% of voters know who he is with 39% having a favorable impression and 14% having an unfavorable impression. HARKEY: 39% know her, and they say "three out of four have either never heard of her, or have no specific impression of her.
Now, these numbers are pretty strong for Harman. We'll be looking for some critique of the attached memo from fellow FR Contributor Adam Probolsky, who is himself a pollster. If for no other reason, I expect Probolsky to assail these numbers as he has been retained by Harkey.
Sorry, no crosstabs in the memo. This survey could be entirely useless if a disproportionate number of respondents came from Huntington Beach, Tom Harman's base of operations, where he has served in a public capacity for over a decade.
This just came over the transom from the Mike Carona campaign:
CALIFORNIA REPUBLICAN ASSEMBLY ENDORSES SHERIFF’S RE-ELECTION
Carona gains key endorsement
Irvine, CA – The Orange County Republican Assembly on Monday night unanimously endorsed the re-election of Sheriff Mike Carona. The CRA endorsing convention was held at the Irvine Atrium Hotel and more than a dozen Republican clubs from across Orange County participated in the convention. The more than sixty delegates unanimously endorsed the Sheriff in a voice vote.
The California Republican Assembly is one of the most influential Republican organizations in the state, with a long history of conservative grass roots activism. The CRA has additional clout because of its willingness to endorse in primaries.
According to Mike Spence, state Chairman for the California Republican Assembly, “The CRA endorsement will mean an even greater infusion of volunteers into the Sheriff’s re-election campaign. The unanimous endorsement clearly shows that none of the Sheriff’s opponents have gained any traction what so ever.”
The endorsement is further evidence that the Carona campaign is running on all cylinders. According to the Sheriff’s political advisor and former Chairman of the California Republican Party, Mike Schroeder, “The CRA endorsement shows that both the Republican elected leadership and grass roots volunteers support the Sheriff’s re-election. The CRA endorsement is an indication of what will happen when the Orange County Republican Central Committee awards their endorsement as well.”
DIANE HARKEY CALLS TOM HARMAN A “DAY LATE AND A DOLLAR SHORT” ON THE ILLEGAL IMMIGRATION ISSUE
Diane Harkey, Republican candidate for the 35th State Senate District, today called Tom Harman “a day late and a dollar short” on his recent announcement to work to curb illegal immigration in California.
“Harman has had 5 ½ years to address this issue in Sacramento,” said Harkey. “Now he decides to introduce legislation, that he doesn’t have the votes to pass, to tackle the problem, on the very last day he is able before the April 11th Special Election. I know the voters will see through this last minute ‘me too’ campaign tactic.”
Diane Harkey, who was a Co-Chairman of the California Border Police Initiative last year, has been a strong supporter of working with the Federal Government, for additional border security, to stem the flow of illegal aliens into the state.
“How can we believe Harman, who has been sending taxpayer-funded mailings into his district touting his concern about the impact of illegal immigration on our state,” continued Harkey “When he voted in the legislature to give in-state college tuition breaks to the very same illegal immigrants he is now condemning? Where was he on Prop 187? Where was he on Cal Border Police? The hypocrisy would be laughable if the issue wasn’t so important.”
Republican Diane Harkey is running in the April 11th Special Election for the 35th State Senate District.
This was just sent to me by the Capo Recall group. Looks like the Capo Trustees and the Registrar are going to be real busy this year!!!
CUSD Recall Committee Will Make Two Major Announcements Wednesday Relating To The Capistrano Unified School District
Press Conference: Wednesday morning, representatives of the CUSD Recall Committee, the grass roots group of parents and concerned taxpayers that led the unprecedented campaign throughout South Orange County to recall all seven trustees of the Capistrano Unified School District will make two major public announcements. All television, radio and print media are encouraged to attend.
1. Release of Inspection Report Findings.
On November 8, 2005 the CUSD Recall Committee was honored to submit to the Orange County Registrar’s Office more than 177,000 petition signatures to recall all seven CUSD Trustees. In order to qualify for a special recall election, 20,421 valid signatures for each of the seven trustees were required. On December 23, 2006, the Registrar's Office announced that an insufficient number of valid signatures had been gathered to certify a recall election.
Immediately upon learning of the Registrar’s actions, the CUSD Recall Committee issued an official statement that read in pertinent part as follows, “Recall Committee Members will be contacting the Registrar’s office to inspect the more than 175,000 signatures they submitted in order to ascertain which signatures were disqualified and the reasons therefore.”
That inspection has been completed and the results are quite alarming.
We have discovered compelling evidence that the Orange County Registrar of voters improperly rejected thousands of petition signatures, thereby disenfranchising thousands of registered voters. The detailed results of this inspection are set forth in a report prepared the CUSD Recall Committee. On Wednesday morning, CUSD Recall Committee Members will publicly release this inspection report and summarize the key findings, observations and recommendations set forth therein. Complete copies of the final report will be made available to all members of the media in attendance.
2. Evidence of Corruption and Illegal Activities at CUSD.
This past summer, residents throughout South Orange County sought to recall the entire school board based upon allegations of corruption and gross fiscal mismanagement. More than 177,000 petition signatures seeking to remove the Trustees from office were delivered to the Orange County Registrar of Voters.
On December 23, 2006, upon learning of the Registrar’s decision to reject the CUSD recall petitions, the CUSD Recall Committee issued an official statement that read in pertinent part as follows, “The CUSD Recall team has also called upon law enforcement authorities to commence a full and complete investigation into the compelling allegations and evidence of serious improprieties at CUSD. One way or another, this campaign will continue until those CUSD officials that have misled our community and violated the law are removed from office, held accountable and brought to justice.”
On Wednesday morning, the CUSD Recall Committee will make a major announcement relating to these issues.
Public Statements will be delivered by Thomas Russell (Spokesperson, CUSD Recall Committee) and Michael Winsten (Chairman, CUSD Recall Committee).
All television, radio and print media are encouraged to attend.
Date: Wednesday, March 1
Time: 10:00 a.m.
Location: Orange County Registrar of Voters 1300 South Grand Avenue, Building C Santa Ana (at the corner of Grand Avenue and McFadden)
To learn more about these important issues, please visit our website at www.cusdrecall.com or contact: Thomas K. Russell, Spokesperson, CUSD Recall Committee, Telephone: (949) 459-1220, Facsimile: (949) 459-1217, e-mail: email@example.com
In light of the Howard Jarvis Taxpayers Association's endorsement of Assembly candidate Mike McGill, I thought readers might be interested in the following examples of how the HJTA views the type of anti-Prop 13 legislation McGill thought worth supporting.
Here's a column by Dec. 20, 2004 HJTA President Jon Coupal on ACA 7 by Assemblyman Joe Nation. This is a successor to the ACA 7 Cypress Councilman Mike McGill supported -- the pimary difference being Joe Nation's ACA 7 applies to any special tax, whol Dutra's ACA 7 applied to special taxes dedicated to transportation (like Measure M).
The vote counting machines for the November election have barely
cooled, new members of the Legislature have just begun to warm their
seats, and already a bill has been introduced to throttle the life out
of Proposition 13.
Assemblyman Joe Nation (D-San Rafael) was so anxious to launch his
attack on the venerable taxpayer protecting measure, he couldn't even
wait until the new year. On December 6, he introduced a constitutional
amendment (ACA 7) to eliminate Proposition 13's requirement that local
special taxes -- those taxes earmarked for a specific purpose --
receive a two-thirds vote.
For this reason Proposition 13 was written as a comprehensive package
of taxpayer protections. In addition to placing a cap on annual
increases in the property tax, Proposition 13 requires that new state
taxes receive a two-thirds vote of the Legislature and new local
special taxes be approved by two-thirds of the voters.
Now, thanks to Joe Nation, government bureaucrats are drooling over
the possibility that taxes, that can be used for anything including
pay and benefit increases for public employees, will be much easier to
The Legislature has intensified its deliberate attack on the two-thirds vote requirement in the State Constitution for passage of special taxes. On May 25th Jim Sanders of The Sacramento Bee described in his article "Further easing of tax votes sought" eight specific constitutional amendments that would make it easier for local voters to increase taxes by reducing the two-thirds requirement.
The column lists several amendemnts, including the two that McGill supported:
SCA 2 - Would allow local government agencies to impose a sales tax or special tax with a majority vote. Purpose: transportation and smart growth.
ACA 7 - Would allow local or regional transportation agencies to impose up to a half-cent sales tax with a 55 percent vote. Purpose: transportation needs
It was pointed out that this is nothing more than an attack on Proposition 13, approved in 1978, which created the requirement that special taxes be approved by a two-thirds vote of the affected residents. Our Vice President Jon Coupal, who is also President of the Howard Jarvis Taxpayers Association, was quoted by The Bee as contending that leveling taxes is "government's most draconian power" and should never be abused. He also said a property tax can be easier to sell, perhaps, to someone who doesn't own property, and that before dipping into Californian's pocketbooks, the interest of everyone should be considered - not just those of a majority. Further, the US Supreme Court confirmed the need for the two-thirds vote by stating: "in voting to issue bonds voters are committing, in part, the credit of infants and of generations yet unborn, and some restriction on such a commitment is not an unreasonable demand."
These amendments are entirely consequential for taxpayers. Supporting SCA 2 (Torlakson), for example, means supporting the renewal of Measure M by a simple majority rather than the 2/3 majority required due to the passage of Prop. 218. For that matter, supporting SCA 2 calls into question a candidate's support for Prop. 218.
HJTA is aware of McGill's votes. It would be helpful if HJTA would address them directly.
Howard Jarvis Taxpayers Association Endorses McGill
McGill only candidate who will protect taxpayers
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE Contact: Joe Giardiello
February 28, 2006 (310) 455-1282
CYPRESS, CA – The Howard Jarvis Taxpayers Association PAC, the largest and one of the most respected taxpayer organizations in the nation, has announced its endorsement of conservative Assembly candidate Mike McGill for the 67th AD.
"Mike McGill will be a staunch defender of Proposition 13 and will oppose any attempt to raise taxes or fees. He is the candidate we can trust to stand up for the taxpayers and keep a watchful eye on how public dollars are being spent."
-Jon Coupal President, HJTA
The Howard Jarvis Taxpayers Association has been on the frontlines in defending Prop. 13 and is dedicated to the advancement of taxpayers' rights including the right to limited taxation, the right to vote on tax increases and the right of efficient use of taxpayer dollars.
"Staunch defender of Proposition 13"?
"...will oppose any attempt to raise taxes or fees"?
What a joke.
McGill's support for two state constitutional amendments that would gut Prop. 13's taxpayer protections make those statements absolute lies. This press release is utterly laughable.
Certainly the HJTA endorsement is a boost for McGill that will certainly help him among 67th AD voters.
As for me, the HJTA is making a mockery of itself with this endorsement. When Jon Coupal came on board at HJTA, it was viewed by many in GOP circles as an organization whose endorsement could be bought. I think Coupal had succeeded in restoring HJTA's standing as California's pre-eminent anti-tax organization.
It's too bad HJTA has undone much of that work by endorsing a candidate who supports making it easier to local governments to raise our taxes. Complaints about Jim Silva's record on the PLA and pension spiking are dodges -- ancillary to the matter of safeguarding one of the few protections Californians have from the predations of government's appetite for revenue. It's disheartening to know that a politician can work to dismantle Prop. 13 protections and still get the endorsement of an organization that styles itself as being "on the frontlines in defending Prop. 13 and is dedicated to the advancement of taxpayers' rights."
Now, whenever we see an HJTA candidate endorsement, it can no longer be taken for granted that candidate supports Prop. 13. And that's a shame for a great political organization.
As for Mike McGill, I had been willing to give him the benefit of the doubt regarding the Cottonwood Church debacle. Now, not only has he refused to repudiate that example of eminent domain abuse, but wants local government to have an easier time raising taxes. The "Mike McGill is the true conservative candidate" is becoming impossible to buy.
The Register's reporting that the City Council approved the construction of the very controversial $250 million operation by Poseidon Resources: Huntington Beach approves desalination plant. Poseidon already failed with a plant of half the proposed size in Tampa Bay, FL.
The Coastal Commission (which has already criticized the EIR) must still approve the project -- as one of the 400 speakers put it last night, it's effectively a factory right in the heart of HB's beach tourist business. Many of last night's speakers at the Council Meeting were trade union members seeking the jobs the construction will produce.
County water supplies are secure through 2030, according to the Metropolitan Water District of Southern California, and no prospective buyers of Poseidon's water have come forward. Company officials say most of the water likely would be sent to south Orange County.
Poseidon has negotiated a PLA with the Orange County Building Trades Council on this Desal plant. Poseidon did the same thing in San Diego. They are teaming up with the unions in the hopes of expediting approvals. The Unions threaten developers like Poseidon into agreeing to PLAs or else they will throw up environmental roadblocks to stall the projects. This is the kind of Blackmail or "Greenmail" that Unions are using to get work. If this is approved we are going to have a Large PLA in the heart of Orange County.
It's also never been clear that Poseidon was going to make any money for its operator -- and then who gets stuck for it if it fails (well, WE can figure that out). Something still smells here, and it's not the nearby treatment plant. Maybe it's just the very questionable record of HB city government and the many scandals which have plagued them, but this needs a much closer look -- especially since there's a PLA and nobody can nail down the numbers.
State Water officials are skeptical of the proposal, arguing that California's water needs have been met for the next 20 years. Desalination might be useful in the distant future, they say, but the current price of desalinating water, especially the large energy expenses associated with the technology, don't currently make it an economically feasible proposal. Poseidon officials argue that the costs of desalinated water will continue to drop, while the price of imported water and pumped ground water will continue to rise, eventually meeting in the middle. Desalination proponents also argue that the plant will generate millions in tax revenues for the city, but it is unclear how they have tabulated their rates.
UPDATE: Per the Register and two commenters, here's the vote:
FOR: Don Hansen, Keith Bohr, Gil Coerper, Cathy Green
AGAINST: Mayor Dave Sullivan, Debbie Cook, Jill Hardy