48th CD Predictions

Well, here we are -- another election, another OC Blog election results prediction contest. As always, the winner will have his or her choice of an attractive OC Blog coffee mug or beer stein.

Rules: Give your vote predictions for John Campbell, Steve Young and Jim Gilchrist. Whoever comes closest, wins.

UPDATE: In order to avoid duplications and ties, your predictions must include tenths-of-a-percent, i.e. 65.3% for Campbell.

Comments

[redperegrine]

Campbell: 54%
Gilchrist:22%
Young: 19%
Others: 5%

[who noze]

Campbell: 51 %
Gilchrist: 29 %
Young: 17 %
others 3 %

[pushin25]

Gilchrist: 48 %
Campbell: 42 %
Young: 8 %
Pedro: 2 %

[Robbie Haglund]

Campbell 58%
Gilchrist 23%
Young 16%

[Mark Brainard]

Campbell 43
Gilcrest 17
Young 36

[Scott Carpenter]

Campbell: 53%
Gilchrist: 26%
Young: 17%

[Chaz Lambrusco]

Campbell 59%

Young 23%

Gilchrist 16%

[Robbie Haglund]

Chaz, you're taking the wind out of my sail! I was enjoying having the highest prediction for Campbell. I think your Gilchrist/Young model depends on higher levels of sanity than actually exist, however.

[Blog Watcher]

Assuming that Campbell is going to win. Can someone tell me what he has done other than choose the right parents?

If I were born to the affluence of Mr. Campbell's I could afford to be a lot of things. A good conservative only being one of them. During the last election for President many conservatives told me Kerry had more than enough money so his running for President was about his ego. Could the same be said of Campbell? I see similarities between the two. Except that Campbell never served his country in uniform. It was one of the reasons I backed Maddox in that senate race. While I didn't approve of all of his positions, I was impressed that Maddox came from modest beginnings and is the epitome of making something of yourself. Same with Chuck Devore. That is no fault of Campbell's but his upbringing doesn't represent me and fortunately when he gets elected to Congress he won't represent me any longer.

Secondly. Congress is a whole lot different than Sacramento. I heard him speak on the radio a couple of times. If he is going to be thought a leader he needs to hire a voice coach that will teach him to lower his voice an octave or two. He'll get eaten alive as just another semi effeminate sounding preppy with the way he sounds.

The only thing he has proven is that an election can be won by producing a lot of mail. What has he done since he was elected to the state legislature? What bills has he gotten enacted into law that he can claim as beneficial?

[Chaz Lambrusco]

FYI

Nov 2, 2004 Results

UNITED STATES REPRESENTATIVE 48th District
Vote Count Percentage
CHRISTOPHER COX (REP) 189004 65.0%
JOHN GRAHAM (DEM) 93525 32.2%
BRUCE COHEN (LIB) 8343 2.9%

[Robbie Haglund]

Blog Watcher -
I believe this is an election prediction thread for the results. There are already two dedicated Campbell bashing threads. Your comments might be a little better suited for that venue. If you actually have predictions on what will happen tonight, however, I'd love to hear them.

[Jubal]

Blog Watcher:

Robbie's right. Make a prediction. Nobody wants to read the tired anti-rich guy rhetoric.

[Peter]

Campbell: 48%
Gilchrist:23%
Young: 24%
Cohen: 3%
Tiratelli: 2%

[Allan Bartlett]

Sorry everyone for my tardiness here, I have been busy calling Republicans in my precinct here in Turtle Rock and only two Republicans out of 25 that I talked two are voting for John Campbell. I'll stick with my optimistic prediction of

Gilchrist 38%
Campbell 37%
Young 23%
Cohen 1%
Tiritilli 1%

Powder Blue Report

[JozefColomy]

Campbell 69%
Young 21%
Gilchrist 9%
Tiritilli 0.6%
Cohen 0.4%

I'm sorry Mr. Bartlett, but your cocaine-induced prediction is wrong. I had the exact opposite experience when I walked for Senator Campbell this past weekend, and I walked 6 voter precincts in total; and not just precincts in Podunk, CA...I actually walked in Newport Beach and parts of Irvine that are actually civilized :P

[lanceman]

Campbell 49
Gilcrest 31
Young 18
Other 2

Any result with Campbell held below 50% is a victory.

[Jubal]

Any result with Campbell held below 50% is a victory.

First Paul Hackett in OH-2, and now lanceman's comment.

This winning-while-losing trick is becoming a real phenomenon.

[Allan Bartlett]

If Campbell gets below 50%, you can bet that the NRCC will be pushing the panic button. This is only the beginning. All I can say is be very afraid David Dreier. We are coming after you.

Powder Blue Report

[Robbie Haglund]

HAHAHAHAH!!!! I believe we've heard that one before. I believe the situation was highlighted by a big red "Fire Drier" truck inspired by John and Ken. I also remember John and Ken talking incessantly for a month on the subject.

Where is David Drier today?

Helping fill the vacated post of Tom DeLay. Yeah, you guys got him good!

[Jerry Amante]

Good point, Jubal...last time I looked the winner gets sworn in and serves in Congress!

Campbell 57.5

Young 23.2

Gilchrist 16.4

Finally, Congrats to the Trojans...I'm still smarting from the spanking...and yes every lunch will be paid...However, I must say... " HOOK 'EM HORNS !!! "

[Scott Carpenter]

apparently someone already had my previous predictions, so here are my new ones:

Campbell: 56%
Gilchrist: 27%
Young: 22%

[Jubal]

This is only the beginning. All I can say is be very afraid David Dreier. We are coming after you.

Allan -- you forgot to finish the comment off with a Howard Dean scream.

[Chaz Lambrusco]

Absentee Votes Now in

Vote Count Percentage
JOHN CAMPBELL (REP) 30895 53.2%
STEVE YOUNG (DEM) 14697 25.3%
JIM GILCHRIST (AI) 10944 18.8%
BÉA TIRITILLI (GRN) 915 1.6%
BRUCE COHEN (LIB) 644 1.1%

[redperegrine]

Based on that tardy update the OC Blog may consider all my estimates as ending in .0!

[calwatch]

You can hear that John and Ken were impressed by Steve Young (as was I). So it is not out of the realm of possibility that Steve Young runs again at has the J&K support. The difficult task for Young, though, would be how to meld the wingnuts and the moonbats together so that they campaign together without getting at each other's throats. You'll note that Cynthia Matthews was ostracized by the Democratic Party for catering to the wingnuts, and Dem donors were encouraged not to give to her because she wasn't a "legitimate" candidate.