OC Blog

Getting Ready for The Final Rumble

It's 8:33 a.m. and getting closer to the final rumble of the campaign. I rolled in about 10 minutes ago at the same time as former Garden Grove Councilman Mark Leyes. We walked in to find two Trung Nguyen volunteers, as well as Trung attorneys Mike Schroeder and Steve Baric huddle over a table in the lobby poring over notes.

Janet Nguyen consultant Adam Probolsky arrived a few minutes ago, as did one of Fred Woocher's associates. A nattily-attired Trung Nguyen volunteer Scott Hart just strolled in.

UPDATE: It's now 22 minutes to go time, and the place is swarming with Trung people, but only Adam Probolsky showing the Janet banner.

UPDATE (8:57 a.m.): It's "lawyers only" in the challenge room at the moment. Mike Schroeder was here on Friday and didn't have the opportunity to review the disputed ballots slated for review this morning. So it's Neal Kelley, Schroeder, Phil Greer, Steve Baric and Fred Woocher back there right now.

There's a crowd of about 20 of us (including Jimmy Camp from the Janet camp) chatting away in the the lobby waiting for the green light to go in.

Will The Recount End Up In Court?

I think that's the most likely outcome.

I hope I'm wrong and there is a clear cut winner after the recount is completed on Monday (presumably). But Trung and Janet have remained within just a few votes of each other through the entire recount, and I think that is how it will end -- with them separated by just a few votes.

Both camps can point to enough disputed ballots that were disqualified that they'll be mightily tempted to file a lawsuit and try their luck having a judge do what ROV Neal Kelley spent the last week doing.

There are about 60 disputed ballot to be resolved starting Monday morning at 9:00 a.m. That should take about 60-90 minutes. If Janet is behind, my guess is she requests the VVPAT (Voter Verified Paper Audit Trail) recount of election day votes, which buys her a couple of days to consider her options.

If Janet is ahead, her campaign will opt for re-running the machine count -- which could be done by early afternoon. [Remember, Trung has no standing since he didn't request the recount -- the initiative is with Janet Nguyen and Fred Woocher/Gerald Feather.] 

Unless Trung Nguyen files a lawsuit that afternoon, the recount could be certified and Janet sworn in as Supervisor the next day.

My guess is both sides are gaming the outcomes for Monday and devising contingency plans for various outcomes. If the final margin remains as close as the certified result is now, I expect it to move to the courts.

Say, for example, Janet wins by four votes. the Trung camp can point to just the "flower" ballot and the four Janet votes that were cast by the same person and say, "Hey -- there's the margin right there. Maybe we can get a judge to see it differently."

It's a shame it has reached this point. Neither candidate has benefited politically from this recount, and resort to the courts will only hurt them more and deepen divisions within the Vietnamese community.

But these things tend to acquire their own momentum, and it will be difficult for either candidate to walk away after investing so much time, energy, emotion and money.

Things Looking Up For Janet

I just rolled into the ROV and things are looking up for Janet Nguyen. Several recount participants have told me Trung is likely down by 10 votes at this point.

The conventional wisdom was this would be a good day for Trung: it was the day to count Westminster precincts, which were a Trung Nguyen strong hold.

But the recount thus far held a portent of thing to come: Trung voters inadvertantly voiding their ballots with extraneous and indentifying marks.

That is apparently what is happening today. Trung's people feel they can make up some ground during the Monday morning challenge session, but since the re-counting could be done within the next hour, the chances of overcoming Janet don't look great.

Peggy Lowe On Squiggled Ballots

Peggy Lowe blogged a very informative post over at Total Buzz on the subject of what will and won't disqualify a ballot:

This recount business is tough. As I was watching yesterday, I was amazed at the attention brought to even the smallest mark or scrawl that may be deemed pertinent to the voter's intention. The lawyers fight over every single little detail, which, of course, is the point: it may be worth a vote. And when just a handful of ballots separate the two people who will win the supes seat, it's all important.

We don't have the hanging chads of the Florida recount, but we certainly have the hanging lads, a dozen or so male observers and lawyers from three camps leaning over the Registrar of Voters' workers as they pore over each ballot.

Great line, Peggy -- and I recommend reading the rest of her post here.

Trung Campaign Wants ROV Volunteer To Chill Out

Just after yesterday's disputed ballot resolution was completed, Trung Nguyen campaign volunteer Scott Hart presented the campaign's complaint to Registrar of Voters Neal Kelley about an ROV volunteer who had been extraordinarily aggressive in voiding ballots during the recount.

Here's the back story, as told to me by the Trung Nguyen campaign: this volunteer was voiding ballots in a far more aggressive -- and in their opinion, picayune -- manner than any other volunteer had been doing heretofore. readers who watched yesterday's challenge room videos recognized her work in the form of several ballots voided because voters had underlined Trung's name. If memory serves (I edited and uploaded a lot of video last night), Neal overruled the void in each case and counted them for Trung.

In any case, watched the video to hear Scott Hart's pitch, Janet Nguyen attorney Phil Greer's contrary opinion and Neal Kelley's response:

Neal Kelley Explains What The Baskets Are For

For those of you who can't get enough recount video, here's a short clip in which I ask Neal Kelley to explain the purpose of the two wire baskets into which he places disputed ballots following his ruling:

Red County/OC Blog News Roundup -- Feb. 23, 2007

Today's top stories from behind the Orange Curtain:

Anaheim May Re-Open Debate On Housing In Resort District -- LAT
Councilwoman Lucille Kring, who would have been the swing vote, abstained after Disney attorneys raised a potential conflict of interest.

Molestation Trial Begins For Lawyer With Ties To OC Power -- LAT
He's accused of sex with a 14-year-old he met on the Internet.

Frank Mickadeit: Molestation Trial Devoid Of Politics So Far -- OCR
Frank writes about the Jeff Nielsen trial, which finally got underway.

Op-Ed: Taxpayers Before Nostalgia -- OCR
Losing one of the two iconic Tustin blimp hangars is sensible, but we'll miss it

Arrest Made In Store Killing -- OCR
Home Depot assistant manager Tom Egan was fatally shot Feb. 9 during a robbery gone bad.

Sweep Nets 185 Illegal Workers -- OCR
Federal agents arrest immigrants across the country, including 20 here.

Whopping Health Cost Proposal Riles Teachers -- LAT
Santa Ana district officials say the huge jump in fees envisioned is just to highlight a budget problem and 'get a reaction.'

Bowers Rarity: The $19 Ticket -- LAT
The Santa Ana museum raises its admission to New York City levels, though its director says it's an all-for-one deal.

Waste Energized -- OCR
Sanitation officials plan a way to turn sludge that they say is more expensive than typical disposal, but necessary.

Park Plan, City Hall Are Double Trouble -- OCR
Newport Beach is again looking at land dedicated for open space as a possible site for its new municipal headquarters.

Capo, Teachers Go Fact-Finding -- OCR
The district and the union fail to settle a pay dispute at a third mediation session.

State Seeks To Close Foundation For The Mentally Ill -- OCR
John Henry Foundation founder welcomes the fight.

Answers, But Little Comfort -- DP
As local officials try to address concerns about drug and alcohol recovery homes, they're finding they must navigate a minefield of mistrust as well as restrictive state and federal regulations.

Report On College-Owned Island Is Expected Today -- DP
A team of experts is at Orange Coast College this week to study the possibility of keeping Rabbit Island, while the school's foundation continues entertaining plans to sell the British Columbian property.

Drug-Offender Prison Proposed -- DP
As the state faces a potential court takeover of its prison system, Assemblyman Chuck DeVore of Newport Beach is proposing one way to address the problem of drug-addicted inmates.

Eight Is Enough -- OC Weekly
One man has four girlfriends and eight children, all of whom live in separate houses within four miles of each other. In Utah? No, Irvine.

McKnight Out -- OC Weekly
Catholic Church Leaders Protect Mater Dei Coach from Deposition

'We Love Hunting Wetbacks' -- OC Weekly
Costa Mesa Latino alleges Bizarre beatdown by OC Sheriff’s Deputies

Ask A Mexican! -- OC Weekly
It's a three-question especial this week!

When Is An Identifying Mark Not An Identifying Mark?

Here's a very interesting challenge debate from today's disputed ballot resolution> it is the only instance so far in which I seriously question the call made by Neal Kelley and counsel Leon Page, whom I think are trying very hard to be fair and judicious in applying the elections code, and in trying to balance a spirit of "counting every vote" with adhering to state law regarding valid and invalid ballots -- which Tuesday's and Thursday's videos show. I wouldn't want to be in their shoes - but they aren't King Solomon and in this case I think they made a mistake.

This one involves a ballot cast for Janet Nguyen on which the voter wrote the word "save" and later attempted to erase the identifying mark. The Trung campaign argued to have it rejected because it had an identifying mark. Janet Nguyen attorney Phil Greer argued it should be counted, and was joined by an animated Fred Woocher, who was adamant it should be counted by claiming the text was not an identifying mark:

Neal Kelley and Leon Page conferred for longer than I've seen them confer on any disputed ballot, and ultimately decided to sustain it as a vote for Janet.

OK.

But then five minutes later, another disputed ballot came up. It had been called as a voided ballot. This one was marked for Trung Nguyen because the voter had drawn a flower on the ballot:

In this case, Kelley sustained it as a void ballot because of the flower. So why did semi-erased text not void a vote for Janet, but a doodle of a flower did void a vote for Trung? As Steve Baric asked: "What's the difference?"

My friend Phil Greer, who argued strongly for consistency when fighting against having the Janet vote disqualified because of a semi-erased extraneous word, was mute in the face of this inconsistency. But then, he's working for Janet and I wouldn't expect him to help Trung hold on to a vote.

But what about Fred Woocher? His supposedly independent involvement in this recount is to ensure the votes are properly counted. He was voluble in his insistence that a semi-erased text was not an identifying mark and therefore the vote for Janet should not be disqualified.

But five minutes later, Fred Woocher seemed to have misplaced his tongue when it came to applying the same standard to the vote for Trung. So much for wanting to ensure all the votes are properly counted.

As for me, I think it was a bad call. Other ballots have been disqualified for having extraneous text on them. The vote for Janet should have been, as well -- or else the voided Trung vote should have been ruled good in the name of consistency.

More Video From The Challenge Room - Day 3

Getting punchy after a long day: yukking it up over the meaning of a coffee or tea-stained ballot:

Here, ROV Neal Kelley changes a Trung vote to a voided ballot:

And here, he rules an overvote as a vote for Trung:

The first disputed ballot in this clip brings us to a complaint leveled later in the evening by the Trung Nguyen campaign -- namely that they viewed one of the ROV volunteers as being overly aggressive in voiding ballots. For example, regarding the first ballot in question, the voter filled in the vote target for Trung and then underlined Trung's name. This was one of several such voids from that worker -- all of which were reversed by Kelley.

And another long day draws to a close as the last overvotes, unvotes and voids - Oh My! - are dealt with.

Woocher Says Family Members Can Fill Out Your Absentee Ballot For You

This is a good one.

Trung's lead attorney today, Steve Baric of the California Republican Lawyers Association, directs the attention of ROV Neal Kelley and Lean Page from County Counsel to the next four ballots -- all of which have Janet Nguyen's name signed on the write-in line by the same person (judging by the identical hand-writing):

One thing about this exchange that stands out is Fred Woocher's insistence the California Elections Code allows family members to fill out another family member's ballot...er, "assist" them in filling out their ballot:

I've searched, and I can't find that provision anywhere in the California Elections Code. True, a "spouse, child, parent, grandparent, grandchild, brother, sister, or a person residing in the same household as the absent voter" can return that voter's completed absentee ballot if that voter is too sick or injured to do so himself/herself. But it doesn't say anything about filling out a family member's ballot for them.

And how much assistance does a person need to physically complete this particular absentee ballot?